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Raritan Tuesday Series 10-25-16

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 5 5
2 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 10 10
3 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 12 12
4 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 16 16
5 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 23 23
6 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 26 26
7 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 32 32
8 Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 35 35
9 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 48 48
10 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 48 48
11 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 48 48
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 1 2 1 1 5 Thomas Quinn '18
Kelsey Kennedy '18
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 4 1 2 3 10 Patrick Murray '19
George Tricker '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 3 3 4 2 12 Sean Groskoph '20
Malcolm Harrison '19
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 2 7 3 4 16 Marisa Marino '17
Lindsey Stinson '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 5 5 6 7 23 Liam Dwyer '17
Shannon Groskoph '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 DNS 4 5 5 26 Sophie Lusty '20
No Show
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 DNS 6 8 6 32 Zoe Papier '19
No Show
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates DNS 8 7 8 35 No Show
No Show
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 DNS DNS DNS DNS 48 Cooper Lahoud '19
Ryan Mayes '19
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 DNS DNS DNS DNS 48 Paul Danenberg '19
Gavin Mayes '18
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 DNS DNS DNS DNS 48 Yumtsokyi Bhum '19
Stephanie Gilsenan '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 12222
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 21111
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 36666
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 43333
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 54444
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 110101010
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 211111111
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 37777
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 416161616
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 515151515
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates12121212

Conditions — 10/25/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 46%  ·  Pressure 1023.4 hPa

Temperature

49°F
↑ 51°F   ↓ 44°F
Feels like 39°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.6 kn
avg  ·  max 12.5 kn
Gusts to 27.2 kn
From WNW (301°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover44% Sunshine10.5 hrs Humidity46% Pressure1023.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 14 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Summit: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.16)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.09
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.38 ± 0.45)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.16 means a rating gap counts about 14% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →