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Raritan Tuesday Series 9-13-16

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 22 22
2 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 26 26
3 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 29 29
4 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 10 30 30
5 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 33 33
6 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 39 39
7 Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils 45 45
8 Pirates 2 Pirates 2 Pirates 2 49 49
9 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 57 57
10 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 7 63 63
11 Pirates 1 Pirates 1 Pirates 1 67 67
12 Pirates 3 Pirates 3 Pirates 3 76 76
13 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 76 76
14 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 79 79
15 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 79 79
16 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 89 89
17 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 9 94 94
18 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 96 96
19 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 8 97 97
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 2 5 5 1 7 2 22 Marisa Marino '17 [1-6]
Stephanie Gilsenan '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Lindsey Stinson '17 [3-4]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 1 1 1 2 OCS 1 26 Thomas Quinn '18
Nicholas Bergmann '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 5 2 3 8 2 9 29 Sean Groskoph '20
Leo Briant '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 10 4 11 2 5 4 4 30 Patrick Murray '19
Liz Colao '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 3 9 7 3 6 5 33 Hannah Mercurio '20
Georgia Shanker '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 9 12 4 7 1 6 39 Evan Hybl '19
Morgan Shung '19
Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils 7 3 15 14 3 3 45 Harrison Bailey '18
Pirates 2 Pirates 2 Pirates 2 10 10 6 11 5 7 49
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 8 6 11 4 OCS 8 57 Mack Totman '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 7 12 14 8 9 8 12 63 Malcolm Harrison '19
Samantha Owens '18
Pirates 1 Pirates 1 Pirates 1 14 8 10 10 11 14 67
Pirates 3 Pirates 3 Pirates 3 6 15 13 17 10 15 76
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 DNS 7 14 16 9 10 76 Jillian Torrente '17 [1-6]
Yumtsokyi Bhum '19 [1-2]
Zachary Krieger '19 [3-4]
Gavin Mayes '18 [5-6]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 11 18 12 13 12 13 79 Sophie Lusty '20
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 16 16 9 12 15 11 79 Grace Evans '17 [1-4]
Jack Gallagher '19 [5-6]
Zoe Papier '19 [1-2]
Luke Duplessis '20 [3-6]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 DNS 4 16 18 13 18 89 Jack Gallagher '19 [1-2]
Paul Danenberg '19 [3-6]
Paul Danenberg '19 [1-2]
James Mccarron '18 [3-4]
Zoe Papier '19 [5-6]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 9 17 19 19 6 14 19 94 Kelsey Kennedy '18
Mia Chmelar '19
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 15 17 17 15 16 16 96 Patrick Seitz-Sitek '19 [1-6]
Ryan Mayes '19 [1-4]
Yumtsokyi Bhum '19 [5-6]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 8 13 13 18 19 17 17 97 Sarah Parenti '17
Will Sanyour '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 1777777
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 2888888
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 3999999
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 4101010101010
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 5111111111111
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 1777777
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 10888888
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 2121212121212
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 3161616161616
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 4181818181818
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 5101010101010
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 6131313131313
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 7151515151515
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 8111111111111
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 9999999
Pirates 1Pirates 1 Pirates 1111111
Pirates 2Pirates 2 Pirates 2555555
Pirates 3Pirates 3 Pirates 3121212121212
Westfield High SchoolWestfield High School Blue Devils333333
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 Jack Gallagher '19 [1-2]
Paul Danenberg '19 [3-6]		 Paul Danenberg '19 [1-2]
James Mccarron '18 [3-4]
Zoe Papier '19 [5-6]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 Grace Evans '17 [1-4]
Jack Gallagher '19 [5-6]		 Zoe Papier '19 [1-2]
Luke Duplessis '20 [3-6]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 Jillian Torrente '17 [1-6] Yumtsokyi Bhum '19 [1-2]
Zachary Krieger '19 [3-4]
Gavin Mayes '18 [5-6]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 Marisa Marino '17 [1-6] Stephanie Gilsenan '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Lindsey Stinson '17 [3-4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 Patrick Seitz-Sitek '19 [1-6] Ryan Mayes '19 [1-4]
Yumtsokyi Bhum '19 [5-6]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 Thomas Quinn '18 Nicholas Bergmann '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 10 Patrick Murray '19 Liz Colao '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 Sean Groskoph '20 Leo Briant '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 Hannah Mercurio '20 Georgia Shanker '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 Mack Totman '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 Evan Hybl '19 Morgan Shung '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 Sophie Lusty '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 7 Malcolm Harrison '19 Samantha Owens '18
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 8 Sarah Parenti '17 Will Sanyour '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 9 Kelsey Kennedy '18 Mia Chmelar '19
Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils Harrison Bailey '18

Conditions — 09/13/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 56%  ·  Pressure 1021.8 hPa

Temperature

76°F
↑ 83°F   ↓ 63°F
Feels like 77°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.1 kn
avg  ·  max 7.0 kn
Gusts to 14.4 kn
From SW (216°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover61% Sunshine9.5 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1021.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Summit: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.20 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →