SAISA Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Myers Park High School Myers Park High School Mustangs 7 6 13
2 Wando High School Wando High School Wando Warriors 9 6 15
3 Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Varsity 13 20 33
4 The Walker School The Walker School Walker Wolverines 19 25 44
5 Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Varsity 28 16 44
6 James Island Charter High School James Island Charter High School Varsity 25 28 53
7 Unregistered-SAISA Unregistered-SAISA Unregistered-SAISA 20 34 54
8 Durham School of The Arts Durham School of The Arts Varsity 32 22 54
9 Lake Norman High School Lake Norman High School Wildcats 28 31 59
10 Atlanta International School Atlanta International School Eagles 39 32 71
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Myers Park High School Myers Park High School Mustangs 1 2 1 3 7 Adam Larson '19
Jackson Sippe '17
Wando High School Wando High School Wando Warriors 2 1 5 1 9 Austin Ando '17
Jack Sutton '18
Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Varsity 3 3 2 5 13 Garrett Mergenthaler '19
Owen Sull '18
The Walker School The Walker School Walker Wolverines 4 5 6 4 19 Carlyn Blauvelt '19
Erika Kaczynski '20
Unregistered-SAISA Unregistered-SAISA Unregistered-SAISA 6 9 3 2 20 James Renneker '18
Lauren Creech '19
James Island Charter High School James Island Charter High School Varsity 9 4 4 8 25 Britton Durst '19 [1-2]
Croix Farmer '17 [3-4]
Camdyn Williams '21 [1-2]
Bobby Baker '18 [3-4]
Lake Norman High School Lake Norman High School Wildcats 5 6 8 9 28 Jacob Thompson '18 [1-2]
Matthew Chenard '17 [3-4]
Declan O'Dell '18 [1-2]
Bobby Missert '20 [3-4]
Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Varsity 8 7 7 6 28 Alex Mazzeo '18
Ian Hoogenboom '20
Durham School of The Arts Durham School of The Arts Varsity 7 8 10 7 32 Sam Finlay '17 [1-2]
David Robertson '17 [3-4]
David Robertson '17 [1-2]
Sam Finlay '17 [3-4]
Atlanta International School Atlanta International School Eagles 10 10 9 10 39 Michener Anthony '19
Caroline Hawkins '21
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Wando High School Wando High School Wando Warriors 1 2 2 1 6 Lucas Sawin '20
Caroline Main '18
Myers Park High School Myers Park High School Mustangs 2 1 1 2 6 Kenny Corsig '19
Sammy Damesek '20
Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Varsity 3 5 5 3 16 Jacob Lawson '18
Thomas Gnann '20
Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Varsity 7 6 3 4 20 Luke Volk '17
Robbie Mones '20
Durham School of The Arts Durham School of The Arts Varsity 4 7 6 5 22 Gareth Ferguson '19
Emma Richardson '17
The Walker School The Walker School Walker Wolverines 5 4 8 8 25 Evie Blauvelt '21
Katrin Surkan '21
James Island Charter High School James Island Charter High School Varsity 9 9 4 6 28 Megan Fetterley '19
Camdyn Williams '21
Lake Norman High School Lake Norman High School Wildcats 8 3 10 10 31 Evan Chenard '20 [1-2]
Zac Brown '18 [3-4]
Chris Hartman '20 [1-2]
Ben Brown '18 [3-4]
Atlanta International School Atlanta International School Eagles 6 10 7 9 32 Grace Hawkins '19
Salinne Passburg '21
Unregistered-SAISA Unregistered-SAISA Unregistered-SAISA 10 8 9 7 34 Josh Mergenthaler '21
Hayden Sidak '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.150+0.15
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Atlanta International SchoolAtlanta International School Eagles10101010
Beaufort High SchoolBeaufort High School Varsity1133
Durham School of The ArtsDurham School of The Arts Varsity11111111
James Island Charter High SchoolJames Island Charter High School Varsity2244
Lake Norman High SchoolLake Norman High School Wildcats3355
Myers Park High SchoolMyers Park High School Mustangs4466
Pine Lake PrepPine Lake Prep Varsity5577
Unregistered-SAISAUnregistered-SAISA Unregistered-SAISA12121212
The Walker SchoolThe Walker School Walker Wolverines6611
Wando High SchoolWando High School Wando Warriors7722

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Atlanta International SchoolAtlanta International School Eagles10101010
Beaufort High SchoolBeaufort High School Varsity2244
Durham School of The ArtsDurham School of The Arts Varsity11111111
James Island Charter High SchoolJames Island Charter High School Varsity3355
Lake Norman High SchoolLake Norman High School Wildcats4466
Myers Park High SchoolMyers Park High School Mustangs5577
Pine Lake PrepPine Lake Prep Varsity6611
Unregistered-SAISAUnregistered-SAISA Unregistered-SAISA12121212
The Walker SchoolThe Walker School Walker Wolverines7722
Wando High SchoolWando High School Wando Warriors1133
School / Team SkipperCrew
Atlanta International School Atlanta International School Michener Anthony '19 Caroline Hawkins '21
Eagles Grace Hawkins '19 Salinne Passburg '21
Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Alex Mazzeo '18 Ian Hoogenboom '20
Varsity Jacob Lawson '18 Thomas Gnann '20
Durham School of The Arts Durham School of The Arts Sam Finlay '17 [1-2]
David Robertson '17 [3-4]
David Robertson '17 [1-2]
Sam Finlay '17 [3-4]
Varsity Gareth Ferguson '19 Emma Richardson '17
James Island Charter High School James Island Charter High School Britton Durst '19 [1-2]
Croix Farmer '17 [3-4]
Camdyn Williams '21 [1-2]
Bobby Baker '18 [3-4]
Varsity Megan Fetterley '19 Camdyn Williams '21
Lake Norman High School Lake Norman High School Jacob Thompson '18 [1-2]
Matthew Chenard '17 [3-4]
Declan O'Dell '18 [1-2]
Bobby Missert '20 [3-4]
Wildcats Evan Chenard '20 [1-2]
Zac Brown '18 [3-4]
Chris Hartman '20 [1-2]
Ben Brown '18 [3-4]
Myers Park High School Myers Park High School Adam Larson '19 Jackson Sippe '17
Mustangs Kenny Corsig '19 Sammy Damesek '20
Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Garrett Mergenthaler '19 Owen Sull '18
Varsity Luke Volk '17 Robbie Mones '20
The Walker School The Walker School Carlyn Blauvelt '19 Erika Kaczynski '20
Walker Wolverines Evie Blauvelt '21 Katrin Surkan '21
Unregistered-SAISA Unregistered-SAISA James Renneker '18 Lauren Creech '19
Unregistered-SAISA Josh Mergenthaler '21 Hayden Sidak '21
Wando High School Wando High School Austin Ando '17 Jack Sutton '18
Wando Warriors Lucas Sawin '20 Caroline Main '18

Conditions — 09/10/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 52%  ·  Pressure 1016.6 hPa

Temperature

85°F
↑ 91°F   ↓ 73°F
Feels like 89°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.2 kn
avg  ·  max 5.9 kn
Gusts to 13.8 kn
From SSW (206°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover40% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity52% Pressure1016.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Pine Lake Prep: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.08
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.15 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Pine Lake Prep by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Pine Lake Prep, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →