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SAISA South Great Oaks Qualifier

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Warriors 27 27
2 Coral Shores High School Coral Shores High School Hurricanes 49 49
3 South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 60 60
4 Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 60 60
5 Lake Highland Preparatory School Lake Highland Preparatory School Highlanders 63 63
6 Venice High School (FL) Venice High School (FL) Varsity 68 68
7 Manatee High School Manatee High School Hurricanes 68 68
8 Martin County High School Martin County High School Tigers 70 70
9 Community School of Naples Community School of Naples Varsity 72 72
10 Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Varsity 118 118
11 Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Varsity 119 119
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Warriors 1 1 2 3 1 1 1 9 3 2 2 1 27 Shane Riera '17 [1-12]
Olivia De Olazarra '18 [1-2, 5-12]
Natalia Gagliano '19 [3-4]
Coral Shores High School Coral Shores High School Hurricanes 2 10 1 1 3 RDG 8 1 5 7 4 3 49 Ella Marsden '20 [1-2]
Alex Gonzalez '20 [3-12]
Ethan Osborne '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Ella Marsden '20 [3-4, 7-12]
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 6 9 3 6 4 3 3 3 6 5 6 6 60 Nick Ochalek '17 [1-12]
Trevor Tigges '17 [1-2, 7-8]
Yazmeen Simpson '19 [3-4, 9-10]
Griffin Pollis '19 [5-6, 11-12]
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 7 4 8 7 7 5 4 2 1 1 7 7 60 Hunter Sorensen '17 [1-12]
Chloe Hudgins '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-12]
Jaxson Stehlin '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Lake Highland Preparatory School Lake Highland Preparatory School Highlanders 4 3 9 DSQ 6 2 BKD BKD 7 4 1 9 63 Jack Glenn '17
Andrew Witter '20
Venice High School (FL) Venice High School (FL) Varsity 3 2 7 2 5 7 6 10 11 6 5 4 68 Sam Meyer '19 [1-8, 11-12]
Eric Vangennip '20 [9-10]
Evan Occhino '20 [1-10]
Eric Vangennip '20 [11-12]
Manatee High School Manatee High School Hurricanes 5 6 6 5 9 6 7 4 2 8 8 2 68 J.J. Smith '20
Riley Baugh '20
Martin County High School Martin County High School Tigers 10 5 5 8 2 4 2 5 9 3 9 8 70 Kingsley Ehrich '19
Rachel Dionne '20
Community School of Naples Community School of Naples Varsity 8 7 4 4 8 9 5 6 4 9 3 5 72 Matthew Magardino '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 12]
Johnny Magardino '19 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Harrison Rogers '19 [1-12]
Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Varsity 11 8 10 10 11 11 9 7 10 11 10 10 118 Jacob Armitage '20 [1-2, 9-10]
Grace Pfaelzer '21 [3-8, 11-12]
Aine Porter '19 [1-4, 7-10]
Jacob Armitage '20 [5-6, 11-12]
Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Varsity 9 11 11 9 10 10 11 8 8 10 11 11 119 Harrison Freedman '19 [1-12]
Audrey Hollo '19 [1-4, 9-10]
Leah Schulman '18 [5-8, 11-12]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A
Community School of NaplesCommunity School of Naples Varsity11223344556
Coral Shores High SchoolCoral Shores High School Hurricanes22334455667
Dunedin High SchoolDunedin High School Varsity33445566778
Jensen Beach High SchoolJensen Beach High School Falcons44556677889
Lake Highland Preparatory SchoolLake Highland Preparatory School Highlanders556677889910
Manatee High SchoolManatee High School Hurricanes66778899101011
Martin County High SchoolMartin County High School Tigers778899101011111
Pine Crest SchoolPine Crest School Varsity889910101111112
South Fork High SchoolSouth Fork High School SF BULLDOGS991010111111223
Venice High School (FL)Venice High School (FL) Varsity101011111122334
Westminster Christian SchoolWestminster Christian School Warriors1111112233445
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Community School of Naples Community School of Naples Varsity Matthew Magardino '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 12]
Johnny Magardino '19 [3-4, 7-8, 11]		 Harrison Rogers '19 [1-12]
Coral Shores High School Coral Shores High School Hurricanes Ella Marsden '20 [1-2]
Alex Gonzalez '20 [3-12]		 Ethan Osborne '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Ella Marsden '20 [3-4, 7-12]
Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Varsity Jacob Armitage '20 [1-2, 9-10]
Grace Pfaelzer '21 [3-8, 11-12]		 Aine Porter '19 [1-4, 7-10]
Jacob Armitage '20 [5-6, 11-12]
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons Hunter Sorensen '17 [1-12] Chloe Hudgins '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-12]
Jaxson Stehlin '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Lake Highland Preparatory School Lake Highland Preparatory School Highlanders Jack Glenn '17 Andrew Witter '20
Manatee High School Manatee High School Hurricanes J.J. Smith '20 Riley Baugh '20
Martin County High School Martin County High School Tigers Kingsley Ehrich '19 Rachel Dionne '20
Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Varsity Harrison Freedman '19 [1-12] Audrey Hollo '19 [1-4, 9-10]
Leah Schulman '18 [5-8, 11-12]
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS Nick Ochalek '17 [1-12] Trevor Tigges '17 [1-2, 7-8]
Yazmeen Simpson '19 [3-4, 9-10]
Griffin Pollis '19 [5-6, 11-12]
Venice High School (FL) Venice High School (FL) Varsity Sam Meyer '19 [1-8, 11-12]
Eric Vangennip '20 [9-10]		 Evan Occhino '20 [1-10]
Eric Vangennip '20 [11-12]
Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Warriors Shane Riera '17 [1-12] Olivia De Olazarra '18 [1-2, 5-12]
Natalia Gagliano '19 [3-4]

Conditions — 10/23/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 58%  ·  Pressure 1021.1 hPa

Temperature

73°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 66°F
Feels like 70°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.8 kn
avg  ·  max 11.9 kn
Gusts to 19.8 kn
From NNE (20°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover66% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity58% Pressure1021.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Jensen Beach/Martin County/MOA/Westwood/South Fork/The Pine: a favourites’ day (+0.07)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.17 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Jensen Beach/Martin County/MOA/Westwood/South Fork/The Pine by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Jensen Beach/Martin County/MOA/Westwood/South Fork/The Pine, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →