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South Points 2 JV

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 14 21 35
2 Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 16 21 37
3 Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Varsity 12 28 40
4 Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 20 23 43
5 H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Panthers 38 7 45
6 Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Warriors 43 45 88
7 The Pine School The Pine School Varsity Knights 52 44 96
8 Orangewood Christian School Orangewood Christian School Orangewood Christian 58 MRP 74 MRP 132 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Varsity 2 1 2 1 4 2 12 No Show
Aine Porter '19
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 4 2 1 5 1 1 14 Hunter Sorensen '17
Jaxson Stehlin '20
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 1 4 3 2 3 3 16 Kyle Bramson '20 [1-6]
Bradley Reimer '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Karen Liberman '20 [3-4]
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 3 3 4 4 2 4 20 Adam Kaplan '21
Michael Macrae '19
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Panthers 5 5 DNS DNS 5 5 38 Sean Toro '19 [1-2]
James Nichols '18 [3-4]
No Show [5-6]
Nic Siebold '17 [1-2]
Chad Merrit '20 [3-4]
No Show [5-6]
Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Warriors DNF 7 6 6 DNF 6 43 Alan Stech '21
Luciana Solorzano '20
The Pine School The Pine School Varsity Knights DNF DNF DNF 7 DNS DNS 52 Yuhao Hong '17 [1-6]
Cole Davies '17 [1-2]
Naia Mader '19 [3-6]
Orangewood Christian School Orangewood Christian School Orangewood Christian DNF 6 5 3 6 DNS 58 MRP No Show
No Show
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Panthers 1 2 1 1 1 1 7 Nic Siebold '17
Sean Toro '19
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 2 3 OCS 2 3 2 21 Collin Sealey '17
Christopher Volk '18
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 3 1 OCS 3 2 3 21 Mateo Puech '18
Anna Gessner '18
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 4 4 2 4 4 5 23 Jacob Wolfe '21
Leo Menninger '18
Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Varsity 5 6 3 5 5 4 28 Grace Pfaelzer '21
Jacob Armitage '20
The Pine School The Pine School Varsity Knights DNF 7 4 6 DNS DNS 44 Anthony Saia '20
Nick Mandly '17
Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Warriors DNF 5 DNF 7 DNF 6 45 No Show [1-2, 5-6]
Luciana Solorzano '20 [3-4]
Lorenzo Donadi '21 [1-4]
Christian Martinez '19 [5-6]
Orangewood Christian School Orangewood Christian School Orangewood Christian DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 74 MRP No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Dunedin High SchoolDunedin High School Varsity323232323232
Gulliver Preparatory SchoolGulliver Preparatory School Raiders313131313131
Jensen Beach High SchoolJensen Beach High School Falcons363636363636
Orangewood Christian SchoolOrangewood Christian School Orangewood Christian292929292929
H. B. Plant High SchoolH. B. Plant High School Panthers343434343434
Ransom Everglades SchoolRansom Everglades School Raiders303030303030
The Pine SchoolThe Pine School Varsity Knights353535353535
Westminster Christian SchoolWestminster Christian School Warriors333333333333

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Dunedin High SchoolDunedin High School Varsity323232323232
Gulliver Preparatory SchoolGulliver Preparatory School Raiders313131313131
Jensen Beach High SchoolJensen Beach High School Falcons363636363636
Orangewood Christian SchoolOrangewood Christian School Orangewood Christian292929292929
H. B. Plant High SchoolH. B. Plant High School Panthers343434343434
Ransom Everglades SchoolRansom Everglades School Raiders303030303030
The Pine SchoolThe Pine School Varsity Knights353535353535
Westminster Christian SchoolWestminster Christian School Warriors333333333333
School / Team SkipperCrew
Dunedin High School Dunedin High School No Show Aine Porter '19
Varsity Grace Pfaelzer '21 Jacob Armitage '20
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Kyle Bramson '20 [1-6] Bradley Reimer '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Karen Liberman '20 [3-4]
Raiders Mateo Puech '18 Anna Gessner '18
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Sean Toro '19 [1-2]
James Nichols '18 [3-4]
No Show [5-6]		 Nic Siebold '17 [1-2]
Chad Merrit '20 [3-4]
No Show [5-6]
Panthers Nic Siebold '17 Sean Toro '19
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Hunter Sorensen '17 Jaxson Stehlin '20
Falcons Collin Sealey '17 Christopher Volk '18
Orangewood Christian School Orangewood Christian School No Show No Show
Orangewood Christian No Show No Show
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Adam Kaplan '21 Michael Macrae '19
Raiders Jacob Wolfe '21 Leo Menninger '18
The Pine School The Pine School Yuhao Hong '17 [1-6] Cole Davies '17 [1-2]
Naia Mader '19 [3-6]
Varsity Knights Anthony Saia '20 Nick Mandly '17
Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Alan Stech '21 Luciana Solorzano '20
Warriors No Show [1-2, 5-6]
Luciana Solorzano '20 [3-4]		 Lorenzo Donadi '21 [1-4]
Christian Martinez '19 [5-6]

Conditions — 10/22/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1014.7 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 75°F   ↓ 67°F
Feels like 70°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.8 kn
avg  ·  max 11.9 kn
Gusts to 21.2 kn
From NNW (340°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.3 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1014.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 12 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Jensen Beach/Martin County/MOA/Westwood/South Fork/The Pine: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.18)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.31
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.81 ± 0.34)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.18 means a rating gap counts about 16% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Jensen Beach/Martin County/MOA/Westwood/South Fork/The Pine by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Jensen Beach/Martin County/MOA/Westwood/South Fork/The Pine, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →