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Turkey Bowl Invitational

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 19 16 35
2 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 29 22 51
3 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 30 49 79
4 Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 48 64 112
5 Toms River South Toms River South Indians 73 61 134
6 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 86 60 146
7 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 77 71 148
8 Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 2 79 74 153
9 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 81 77 158
10 Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 1 83 88 171
11 Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 91 84 175
12 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 85 102 187
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 4 2 2 1 1 3 1 1 2 19 Emily Haig '17
Emily Micciche '17
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 2 3 2 RAF 29 Joe Laforgia '17
John Cocozza '20
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 3 2 3 8 2 5 1 2 3 1 30 Chris Magno '17
Justin Modin '19
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 4 3 5 5 4 4 8 5 7 3 48 Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 [1-10]
Kaitlynne Wilhelm '19 [1-7]
Taylor Rice '19 [8-10]
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 9 10 6 9 5 10 7 6 4 7 73 Zach Higham '19 [1-10]
Alexa Carles '19 [1-6]
Paige Zelenak '19 [7-10]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 10 9 7 3 7 3 12 11 11 4 77 Dane Brazinski '17
Matthew Bell '20
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 2 11 11 4 7 10 11 6 4 5 10 79 Macmoyle John '17
Nicastro Dino '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 5 8 12 12 6 7 5 9 9 8 81 Sophie Lusty '20
Christen Taylor '20
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 1 7 7 10 6 9 6 11 8 8 11 83 Taboada Peter '20
Maxwell Bonanno '19
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 12 12 8 10 8 9 4 10 6 6 85 Jillian Torrente '17 [1-10]
Stephanie Gilsenan '17 [1-2]
Grace Evans '17 [3-4]
Lindsey Stinson '17 [5-10]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 8 5 9 4 11 8 10 12 10 9 86 Sean Groskoph '20
George Tricker '17
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 6 6 11 11 12 12 9 7 12 5 91 No Show
No Show
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 1 3 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 16 Tom Green '19
Dana Haig '18
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 3 2 2 7 22 Michael Ehnot '18
Ryan Mullins '19
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 8 3 2 3 7 2 5 3 7 9 49 Garret Boyan '17
Brady Niebling '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 10 7 4 7 8 6 BKD BKD 3 3 60 Hannah Mercurio '20 [1-10]
Sarah Parenti '17 [1-2, 7-8]
Mia Chmelar '19 [3-6, 9-10]
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 3 5 9 5 4 8 9 4 10 4 61 Lauren Zelenak '17 [1-6]
Willow Wahlers '17 [7-10]
Leo Krajewski '19 [1-6]
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 9 8 7 4 10 4 6 10 4 2 64 Patrick Modin '19 [1-10]
No Show [1-7]
Olivia Depasquale '19 [8-10]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 4 11 8 8 9 11 4 5 5 6 71 Robert Maes '17
Jonathan Wilhelm '17
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 2 11 4 5 12 5 10 2 8 6 11 74 Patience Harrington '17
Werner Tim '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 7 9 10 10 6 7 8 6 9 5 77 Malcolm Harrison '19
Liz Colao '19
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 5 10 6 9 3 9 11 11 12 8 84 No Show
Yumtsokyi Bhum '19
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 1 6 6 11 6 11 12 7 9 8 12 88 Reilly Fitzgerald '18
Fifield Scott '16
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 12 12 12 11 12 5 10 7 11 10 102 Jack Gallagher '19 [1-10]
Lindsey Stinson '17 [1-2]
Zoe Papier '19 [3-4, 7-10]
Stephanie Gilsenan '17 [5-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (30 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Central Regional High SchoolCentral Regional High School Eagles 177889910101111
Central Regional High SchoolCentral Regional High School Eagles 28899101011111212
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars991010111112121313
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 110101111121213131414
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 211111212131314141515
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 312121313141415151616
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs13131414151516161717
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams14141515161617171818
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 1151516161717181877
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 21616171718187788
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians17171818778899
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates18187788991010

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Central Regional High SchoolCentral Regional High School Eagles 11122334455
Central Regional High SchoolCentral Regional High School Eagles 22233445566
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars3344556677
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 14455667788
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 25566778899
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 3667788991010
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs77889910101111
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams8899101011111212
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 19910101111121211
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 21010111112121122
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians11111212112233
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates121211223344
School / Team SkipperCrew
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Taboada Peter '20 Maxwell Bonanno '19
Eagles 1 Reilly Fitzgerald '18 Fifield Scott '16
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Macmoyle John '17 Nicastro Dino '20
Eagles 2 Patience Harrington '17 Werner Tim '20
Chatham High School Chatham High School Jillian Torrente '17 [1-10] Stephanie Gilsenan '17 [1-2]
Grace Evans '17 [3-4]
Lindsey Stinson '17 [5-10]
Cougars Jack Gallagher '19 [1-10] Lindsey Stinson '17 [1-2]
Zoe Papier '19 [3-4, 7-10]
Stephanie Gilsenan '17 [5-6]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Joe Laforgia '17 John Cocozza '20
Colts 1 Michael Ehnot '18 Ryan Mullins '19
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Chris Magno '17 Justin Modin '19
Colts 2 Garret Boyan '17 Brady Niebling '20
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Dane Brazinski '17 Matthew Bell '20
Colts 3 Robert Maes '17 Jonathan Wilhelm '17
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 [1-10] Kaitlynne Wilhelm '19 [1-7]
Taylor Rice '19 [8-10]
Bulldogs Patrick Modin '19 [1-10] No Show [1-7]
Olivia Depasquale '19 [8-10]
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Emily Haig '17 Emily Micciche '17
Rams Tom Green '19 Dana Haig '18
Summit High School Summit High School Sean Groskoph '20 George Tricker '17
Hilltoppers 1 Hannah Mercurio '20 [1-10] Sarah Parenti '17 [1-2, 7-8]
Mia Chmelar '19 [3-6, 9-10]
Summit High School Summit High School Sophie Lusty '20 Christen Taylor '20
Hilltoppers 2 Malcolm Harrison '19 Liz Colao '19
Toms River South Toms River South Zach Higham '19 [1-10] Alexa Carles '19 [1-6]
Paige Zelenak '19 [7-10]
Indians Lauren Zelenak '17 [1-6]
Willow Wahlers '17 [7-10]		 Leo Krajewski '19 [1-6]
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA No Show No Show
Pirates No Show Yumtsokyi Bhum '19

Conditions — 11/05/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 57%  ·  Pressure 1022.5 hPa

Temperature

55°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 42°F
Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.2 kn
avg  ·  max 8.7 kn
Gusts to 18.3 kn
From WNW (290°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover18% Sunshine9.7 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1022.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 11 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Summit: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.10)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.04 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →