VISA Maury Fleet Race JV Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 17 17
2 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 30 30
3 York High School York High School Varsity 42 42
4 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 43 43
5 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 46 46
6 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 49 49
7 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 52 52
8 Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Trojans 56 56
9 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 61 61
10 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 70 70
11 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 86 86
12 St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Saints 89 89
13 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 99 99
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 3 3 1 1 6 1 1 1 17 Kyle Pfrang '22 [1-8]
Carter Lydon '21 [1-2]
Maddy Reynolds '21 [3-4]
Mitch Rowell '22 [5-6]
Jack Butler '23 [7-8]
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 4 1 5 2 1 5 7 5 30 Robert Chase '22 [1-2]
Paul Trudell '22 [3-8]
Sophia Bibbo '20 [1-4]
Will Moore '20 [5-8]
York High School York High School Varsity 1 2 8 6 5 2 6 12 42 Brian Fox '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Ethan White '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Christopher Raab '20 [1-2, 7-8]
Elias Rooker '23 [3-4]
Sarah Allen '22 [5-6]
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 8 8 2 7 8 3 5 2 43 Charlie Britt '20 [1-4, 7-8]
Robert Chase '22 [5-6]
Chloe Cowan '22 [1-4]
Sophia Bibbo '20 [5-8]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 5 6 7 8 7 7 2 4 46 Egecan Tezcan '19 [1-2]
Jefferson Elkin '20 [3-5]
Rachel Valadez '20 [6]
John Machowski '19 [7-8]
Charlie Li '20 [1-2]
Rachel Valadez '20 [3-5]
Jefferson Elkin '20 [6]
Kennedy Jones '20 [7-8]
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 12 7 6 9 3 6 3 3 49 Olivia Basco '19 [1-8]
Nate Hoege '19 [1-3]
Caden Sutton '21 [4-8]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 9 10 5 2 DSQ 4 6 52 Lydia Sweeney '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Elaina Tenfelde '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Elaina Tenfelde '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Lydia Sweeney '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Trojans 7 4 9 4 4 8 10 10 56 Katherine Anna Hamner '22 [1-8]
Julia Wilson '22 [1-2, 7-8]
Joshua Morris '23 [3-4]
Ian Howard '23 [5-6]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 6 DNF 3 10 9 4 8 7 61 John Machowski '19 [1-4]
Egecan Tezcan '19 [5-8]
Qianhui "Victoria" Li '19 [1-4]
Charlie Li '20 [5-8]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 10 5 4 3 10 DSQ 11 13 70 Brylie Schaubach '22 [1-2]
Harrison Thomson '22 [3-4]
Maggie Campbell '22 [5-6]
Elliot Baccanari '20 [7-8]
Jake Fowler '22 [1-2]
Mason Thibodeau '23 [3-4]
Charlie Cantrell '22 [5-6]
Trip Walden '19 [7-8]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 9 12 11 12 11 DSQ 9 8 86 Charlotte Patterson '20 [1-8]
Audrey Merritt '20 [1-6]
Jamey Saunders '21 [7-8]
St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Saints 11 10 13 13 12 9 12 9 89 Jack Whitmore '18 [1-2]
Reynolds Short '20 [3-8]
Alex Davis '18 [1-2]
Camryn Morris '18 [3-8]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 13 11 12 11 13 DNS DNF 11 99 Emmaline Dicarlo '20 [1-8]
Fisher Dedmond '21 [1-6]
Audrey Merritt '20 [7-8]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (30 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 111111111
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 222222222
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators33333333
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 144444444
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 255555555
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints66666666
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs77777777
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks88888888
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders 199999999
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders 21010101010101010
St. Christopher's SchoolSt. Christopher's School Saints1111111111111111
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy Trojans1212121212121212
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity1313131313131313
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 John Machowski '19 [1-4]
Egecan Tezcan '19 [5-8]
Qianhui "Victoria" Li '19 [1-4]
Charlie Li '20 [5-8]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 Egecan Tezcan '19 [1-2]
Jefferson Elkin '20 [3-5]
Rachel Valadez '20 [6]
John Machowski '19 [7-8]
Charlie Li '20 [1-2]
Rachel Valadez '20 [3-5]
Jefferson Elkin '20 [6]
Kennedy Jones '20 [7-8]
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators Olivia Basco '19 [1-8] Nate Hoege '19 [1-3]
Caden Sutton '21 [4-8]
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 Robert Chase '22 [1-2]
Paul Trudell '22 [3-8]
Sophia Bibbo '20 [1-4]
Will Moore '20 [5-8]
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 Charlie Britt '20 [1-4, 7-8]
Robert Chase '22 [5-6]
Chloe Cowan '22 [1-4]
Sophia Bibbo '20 [5-8]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints Kyle Pfrang '22 [1-8] Carter Lydon '21 [1-2]
Maddy Reynolds '21 [3-4]
Mitch Rowell '22 [5-6]
Jack Butler '23 [7-8]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs Lydia Sweeney '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Elaina Tenfelde '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Elaina Tenfelde '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Lydia Sweeney '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks Brylie Schaubach '22 [1-2]
Harrison Thomson '22 [3-4]
Maggie Campbell '22 [5-6]
Elliot Baccanari '20 [7-8]
Jake Fowler '22 [1-2]
Mason Thibodeau '23 [3-4]
Charlie Cantrell '22 [5-6]
Trip Walden '19 [7-8]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 Charlotte Patterson '20 [1-8] Audrey Merritt '20 [1-6]
Jamey Saunders '21 [7-8]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 Emmaline Dicarlo '20 [1-8] Fisher Dedmond '21 [1-6]
Audrey Merritt '20 [7-8]
St. Christopher's School St. Christopher's School Saints Jack Whitmore '18 [1-2]
Reynolds Short '20 [3-8]
Alex Davis '18 [1-2]
Camryn Morris '18 [3-8]
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Trojans Katherine Anna Hamner '22 [1-8] Julia Wilson '22 [1-2, 7-8]
Joshua Morris '23 [3-4]
Ian Howard '23 [5-6]
York High School York High School Varsity Brian Fox '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Ethan White '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Christopher Raab '20 [1-2, 7-8]
Elias Rooker '23 [3-4]
Sarah Allen '22 [5-6]

Conditions — 09/10/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 74%  ·  Pressure 1017.6 hPa

Temperature

82°F
↑ 87°F   ↓ 75°F
Feels like 87°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.3 kn
avg  ·  max 8.9 kn
Gusts to 18.1 kn
From SSW (195°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover53% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity74% Pressure1017.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 9 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.19
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.44 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (32 labelled days at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →