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# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 24 24
2 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 25 25
3 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 28 28
4 York High School York High School Varsity 33 33
5 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 37 37
6 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 43 43
7 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 52 52
8 Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Trojans 53 53
9 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 60 60
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 3 RDG 2 4 5 4 3 24 Jefferson Elkin '20 [1-4, 7-8]
Egecan Tezcan '19 [5-6]
Charlie Li '20 [1-2, 7-8]
Qianhui "Victoria" Li '19 [3-4]
Kennedy Jones '20 [5-6]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 6 8 1 1 1 2 1 5 25 Joseph Hutchinson '22 [1-2]
Harrison Thomson '22 [3-4]
Brylie Schaubach '22 [5-6]
Maggie Campbell '22 [7-8]
Christian Callaghan '22 [1-2]
Olivia Hohnholt '20 [3-4]
Jake Fowler '22 [5-6]
Khamarri Boatner '23 [7-8]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 7 1 3 4 3 1 3 6 28 Jennifer Permenter '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Henry Campbell '21 [3-4]
Ali Zaidi '20 [7-8]
Henry Campbell '21 [1-2]
Gabby Foley '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Ali Zaidi '20 [5-6]
York High School York High School Varsity 3 4 6 6 2 3 8 1 33 Brian Fox '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Ethan White '21 [3-4]
Christopher Raab '20 [7-8]
Christopher Raab '20 [1-2]
Elias Rooker '23 [3-4]
Sarah Allen '22 [5-6]
Ethan White '21 [7-8]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 4 9 4 3 5 8 2 2 37 Kai Bartol '20 [1-2]
Maggie Campbell '22 [3-4]
Harrison Thomson '22 [5-6]
Brylie Schaubach '22 [7-8]
Henry Glover '22 [1-2]
Elliot Baccanari '20 [3-4]
Khamarri Boatner '23 [5-6]
Jack Carson '22 [7-8]
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 2 7 8 6 4 6 8 43 Paul Trudell '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Jalen Rogers '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Chloe Cowan '22 [1-2, 7-8]
Jackson Walsh '20 [3-4]
Sophia Bibbo '20 [5-6]
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 5 6 5 7 8 9 5 7 52 Brandon Kim '19 [1-8]
Caden Sutton '21 [1-3]
Hanna Mohsin '19 [4-8]
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Trojans 8 5 2 5 7 6 DNS DNS 53 Katherine Anna Hamner '22 [1-8]
Julia Wilson '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Joshua Morris '23 [3-4, 7-8]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 9 7 8 9 9 7 7 4 60 Charlotte Patterson '20
Audrey Merritt '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses99999999
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators1010101010101010
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores1111111111111111
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs1313131313131313
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 11414141414141414
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks 21212121212121212
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders1515151515151515
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy Trojans1616161616161616
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity1818181818181818
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses Jefferson Elkin '20 [1-4, 7-8]
Egecan Tezcan '19 [5-6]		 Charlie Li '20 [1-2, 7-8]
Qianhui "Victoria" Li '19 [3-4]
Kennedy Jones '20 [5-6]
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators Brandon Kim '19 [1-8] Caden Sutton '21 [1-3]
Hanna Mohsin '19 [4-8]
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores Paul Trudell '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Jalen Rogers '19 [3-4, 7-8]		 Chloe Cowan '22 [1-2, 7-8]
Jackson Walsh '20 [3-4]
Sophia Bibbo '20 [5-6]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs Jennifer Permenter '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Henry Campbell '21 [3-4]
Ali Zaidi '20 [7-8]		 Henry Campbell '21 [1-2]
Gabby Foley '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Ali Zaidi '20 [5-6]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 Joseph Hutchinson '22 [1-2]
Harrison Thomson '22 [3-4]
Brylie Schaubach '22 [5-6]
Maggie Campbell '22 [7-8]		 Christian Callaghan '22 [1-2]
Olivia Hohnholt '20 [3-4]
Jake Fowler '22 [5-6]
Khamarri Boatner '23 [7-8]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 2 Kai Bartol '20 [1-2]
Maggie Campbell '22 [3-4]
Harrison Thomson '22 [5-6]
Brylie Schaubach '22 [7-8]		 Henry Glover '22 [1-2]
Elliot Baccanari '20 [3-4]
Khamarri Boatner '23 [5-6]
Jack Carson '22 [7-8]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders Charlotte Patterson '20 Audrey Merritt '20
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Trojans Katherine Anna Hamner '22 [1-8] Julia Wilson '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Joshua Morris '23 [3-4, 7-8]
York High School York High School Varsity Brian Fox '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Ethan White '21 [3-4]
Christopher Raab '20 [7-8]		 Christopher Raab '20 [1-2]
Elias Rooker '23 [3-4]
Sarah Allen '22 [5-6]
Ethan White '21 [7-8]

Conditions — 09/24/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 82%  ·  Pressure 1016.7 hPa

Temperature

77°F
↑ 81°F   ↓ 69°F
Feels like 83°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.3 kn
avg  ·  max 8.0 kn
Gusts to 17.1 kn
From NNW (339°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover32% Sunshine10.5 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1016.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Norfolk Academy: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.20
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.38 ± 0.27)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Norfolk Academy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Norfolk Academy, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →