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# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Varsity 43 43
2 Coral Shores High School Coral Shores High School Hurricanes 48 48
3 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 61 61
4 Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Panthers 62 62
5 Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates 66 66
6 Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 70 70
7 Orono High School Orono High School Scarlet 70 70
8 Fairfield Ludlowe High School Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 71 71
9 Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 73 73
10 Manatee High School Manatee High School Hurricanes 74 74
11 Ashley Hall Ashley Hall Panthers 84 84
12 Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Varsity 86 86
13 St. Patrick Catholic High School St. Patrick Catholic High School Fighting Irish 122 122
14 South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 127 127
15 Ft. Walton Beach High School Ft. Walton Beach High School Varsity 139 139
16 Niceville High School Niceville High School Varsity 144 144
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Varsity 7 3 3 4 2 8 2 6 6 2 43 Garrett Mergenthaler '19
Caden Wilson '20
Coral Shores High School Coral Shores High School Hurricanes 6 6 1 5 1 13 3 RDG 3 RDG 48 Ella Marsden '20 [1-2, 9-10]
Alex Gonzalez '20 [3-8]
Ethan Osborne '19 [1-10]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers RDG RDG 12 1 10 1 7 9 1 8 61 Thomas Quinn '18
Kelsey Kennedy '18
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Panthers 5 1 11 7 3 14 5 1 2 13 62 Toby Sullivan '19 [1-10]
Karan Jain '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Jose Varela '19 [3-4, 7-10]
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates 4 11 6 11 8 4 4 10 4 4 66 Camille Mcgriff '18 [1-10]
Parker Fench '22 [1-2]
Logan Moran '23 [3-10]
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 3 14 4 10 6 2 9 4 8 10 70 Harrison George '18 [1-10]
Alexandra Soo '18 [1-6]
Connagh Rowley '18 [7-10]
Orono High School Orono High School Scarlet 10 4 5 6 4 11 11 3 9 7 70 Seamus Hendrickson '21 [1-10]
Megan Schoenzeit '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Mei Vickery '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Fairfield Ludlowe High School Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 13 7 2 9 5 3 1 2 DNS 12 71 Jonathan Mears '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Everett Nash '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Tory Miletti '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Cooper Soderlund '18 [3-4, 7-8]
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 1 2 9 13 7 10 8 11 7 5 73 Cade Morrell '21 [1-10]
Nick Dunphey '20 [1-2, 5-10]
Margaret Schuler '21 [3-4]
Manatee High School Manatee High School Hurricanes 8 8 8 2 9 DNF 6 8 5 3 74 J.J. Smith '20 [1-10]
Mckenzie Robbins '20 [1-2]
Riley Baugh '20 [3-10]
Ashley Hall Ashley Hall Panthers 9 5 7 3 11 9 12 12 10 6 84 Ann Sheridan '18
Pearce Buxton '20
Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Varsity 2 13 10 8 13 5 10 7 DNS 1 86 Alex Mazzeo '18 [1-6, 9-10]
Chris Hoogenboom '18 [7-8]
Sarah Suber '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Jacob Lawson '18 [3-4, 7-8]
Chris Hoogenboom '18 [9-10]
St. Patrick Catholic High School St. Patrick Catholic High School Fighting Irish 11 12 16 15 15 7 13 13 11 9 122 James Edwards '21 [1-4, 7-10]
Mallory Edwards '19 [5-6]
Court Salloum '26 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Mallory Edwards '19 [3-4]
Claire Wingfield '19 [7-8]
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 15 15 14 12 12 6 15 14 13 11 127 Yazmeen Simpson '19 [1-2, 7-8]
Griffin Pollis '19 [3-6, 9-10]
Ryan Ince '21 [1-2, 7-8]
Katelyn Herter '20 [3-6, 9-10]
Ft. Walton Beach High School Ft. Walton Beach High School Varsity 14 10 15 14 14 DNF 14 15 12 14 139 Cameron Farrah '19 [1, 5-6, 9-10]
Chloe Sweeting '18 [2-4, 7-8]
Chloe Sweeting '18 [1]
Cameron Farrah '19 [2]
Zach Lambert '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Dalton Edecker '19 [5-6, 9-10]
Niceville High School Niceville High School Varsity 12 9 13 16 16 12 16 16 DNS DNS 144 Spencer Byrd '25 [1-6]
Ryan Ringel '21 [7-10]
Anna Carrieri '21 [1-6]
Jacob Milz '25 [7-10]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Ashley HallAshley Hall Panthers13131515171719192121
Beaufort High SchoolBeaufort High School Varsity252527272929313111
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights15151717191921212323
Coral Shores High SchoolCoral Shores High School Hurricanes21212323252527272929
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School Varsity1133557799
Fairfield Ludlowe High SchoolFairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons29293131113355
Fairhope High SchoolFairhope High School Pirates2727292931311133
Ft. Walton Beach High SchoolFt. Walton Beach High School Varsity991111131315151717
Manatee High SchoolManatee High School Hurricanes23232525272729293131
Mounds Park AcademyMounds Park Academy Panthers7799111113131515
Niceville High SchoolNiceville High School Varsity19192121232325252727
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Scarlet11111313151517171919
Pine Lake PrepPine Lake Prep Varsity335577991111
South Fork High SchoolSouth Fork High School SF BULLDOGS55779911111313
St. Patrick Catholic High SchoolSt. Patrick Catholic High School Fighting Irish17171919212123232525
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers313111335577
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Ashley Hall Ashley Hall Panthers Ann Sheridan '18 Pearce Buxton '20
Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Varsity Alex Mazzeo '18 [1-6, 9-10]
Chris Hoogenboom '18 [7-8]		 Sarah Suber '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Jacob Lawson '18 [3-4, 7-8]
Chris Hoogenboom '18 [9-10]
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights Cade Morrell '21 [1-10] Nick Dunphey '20 [1-2, 5-10]
Margaret Schuler '21 [3-4]
Coral Shores High School Coral Shores High School Hurricanes Ella Marsden '20 [1-2, 9-10]
Alex Gonzalez '20 [3-8]		 Ethan Osborne '19 [1-10]
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity Harrison George '18 [1-10] Alexandra Soo '18 [1-6]
Connagh Rowley '18 [7-10]
Fairfield Ludlowe High School Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons Jonathan Mears '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Everett Nash '19 [3-4, 7-8]		 Tory Miletti '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Cooper Soderlund '18 [3-4, 7-8]
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates Camille Mcgriff '18 [1-10] Parker Fench '22 [1-2]
Logan Moran '23 [3-10]
Ft. Walton Beach High School Ft. Walton Beach High School Varsity Cameron Farrah '19 [1, 5-6, 9-10]
Chloe Sweeting '18 [2-4, 7-8]		 Chloe Sweeting '18 [1]
Cameron Farrah '19 [2]
Zach Lambert '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Dalton Edecker '19 [5-6, 9-10]
Manatee High School Manatee High School Hurricanes J.J. Smith '20 [1-10] Mckenzie Robbins '20 [1-2]
Riley Baugh '20 [3-10]
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Panthers Toby Sullivan '19 [1-10] Karan Jain '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Jose Varela '19 [3-4, 7-10]
Niceville High School Niceville High School Varsity Spencer Byrd '25 [1-6]
Ryan Ringel '21 [7-10]		 Anna Carrieri '21 [1-6]
Jacob Milz '25 [7-10]
Orono High School Orono High School Scarlet Seamus Hendrickson '21 [1-10] Megan Schoenzeit '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Mei Vickery '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Varsity Garrett Mergenthaler '19 Caden Wilson '20
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS Yazmeen Simpson '19 [1-2, 7-8]
Griffin Pollis '19 [3-6, 9-10]		 Ryan Ince '21 [1-2, 7-8]
Katelyn Herter '20 [3-6, 9-10]
St. Patrick Catholic High School St. Patrick Catholic High School Fighting Irish James Edwards '21 [1-4, 7-10]
Mallory Edwards '19 [5-6]		 Court Salloum '26 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Mallory Edwards '19 [3-4]
Claire Wingfield '19 [7-8]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers Thomas Quinn '18 Kelsey Kennedy '18

Conditions — 11/18/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 69%  ·  Pressure 1012.2 hPa

Temperature

75°F
↑ 78°F   ↓ 70°F
Feels like 75°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.4 kn
avg  ·  max 16.8 kn
Gusts to 30.1 kn
From SSW (212°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover95% Sunshine3.7 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1012.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 14 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Jesuit NOLA: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.02 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.04 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Jesuit NOLA by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Jesuit NOLA, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →