ISSA Cressy Nationals Full Rig

HostLakewood/Osceola Fundamental/Shorecrest Prep/St. Petersburg
Date10/28/2017
TypeNational Championship
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Newport Harbor High School	Joseph Hou '18	43
2	South River High School	Leo Boucher '18	51
3	Falmouth High School	Caleb Robinson '18	70
4	St. George's School	John Kirkpatrick '18	85
5	Fairhope High School	Pete Mcgriff '20	94
6	Fort Lauderdale High School	Stephen Streater '19	98
7	Redwood High School	Caleb Yoslov '21	99
8	Archbishop Spalding	Jake Vickers '18	107
9	Long Beach Polytechnic HS	Cameron Feves '18	109
10	Ransom Everglades School	Paul Lobree '18	118
11	St. George's School	Ted Bjerregaard '18	124
12	Christian Brothers Academy	Michael Ehnot '18	134
13	Friday Harbor High School	Marina West '22	135
14	Olympia High School	Owen Timms '19	155
15	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Owen Patterson '19	188
16	Latin School of Chicago	Nikolas Chambers '19	191
17	University Liggett School	Alex Johnson '18	210
18	The Benjamin School	Connor Murphy '19	225

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	TOT
Newport Harbor High School	Joseph Hou '18	1	2	1	7	3	3	8	1	3	5	3	1	5	43
South River High School	Leo Boucher '18	3	5	3	2	4	2	3	3	9	2	7	6	2	51
Falmouth High School	Caleb Robinson '18	4	3	7	4	1	1	2	DNF	2	11	1	5	10	70
St. George's School	John Kirkpatrick '18	6	11	6	5	5	8	16	2	7	9	4	2	4	85
Fairhope High School	Pete Mcgriff '20	8	14	15	12	8	6	1	6	6	1	5	9	3	94
Fort Lauderdale High School	Stephen Streater '19	2	4	5	8	2	7	9	4	1	6	12	DNS	DNS	98
Redwood High School	Caleb Yoslov '21	11	9	8	11	6	11	6	7	12	3	2	12	1	99
Archbishop Spalding	Jake Vickers '18	18	6	2	1	7	5	7	RDG	4	10	6	14	DNS	107
Long Beach Polytechnic HS	Cameron Feves '18	5	8	4	6	10	4	5	12	11	13	14	10	7	109
Ransom Everglades School	Paul Lobree '18	9	RDG	13	3	16	13	11	10	5	8	8	4	6	118
St. George's School	Ted Bjerregaard '18	12	10	10	10	14	12	4	9	10	4	9	7	13	124
Christian Brothers Academy	Michael Ehnot '18	7	7	9	13	11	14	12	5	15	16	13	3	9	134
Friday Harbor High School	Marina West '22	10	1	16	9	9	10	13	8	13	14	10	11	11	135
Olympia High School	Owen Timms '19	13	12	14	14	12	9	10	13	8	7	11	13	DNS	155
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Owen Patterson '19	14	13	17	15	17	16	14	15	14	15	15	15	8	188
Latin School of Chicago	Nikolas Chambers '19	17	16	18	17	15	18	15	11	16	12	16	8	12	191
University Liggett School	Alex Johnson '18	15	17	12	16	13	17	17	14	17	17	17	DNS	DNS	210
The Benjamin School	Connor Murphy '19	16	18	11	18	18	15	18	16	DNF	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	225

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 18 boats · 13 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Joseph Hou '18	Newport Harbor High School	13/13	3.59	4.44	+0.85	99th → 99th	2.7	6%	3.3 / 5.8
2	Leo Boucher '18	South River High School	13/13	3.53	4.12	+0.59	99th → 99th	1.4	10%	3.9 / 6.0
3	Caleb Robinson '18	Falmouth High School	13/13	2.42	3.81	+1.39	91st → 99th	6.3	9%	5.4 / 8.9
4	John Kirkpatrick '18	St. George's School Dragons 2	13/13	2.85	2.94	+0.09	97th → 98th	0.0	31%	6.5 / 7.7
5	Pete Mcgriff '20	Fairhope High School	13/13	2.13	2.71	+0.59	84th → 95th	1.5	13%	7.2 / 9.6
6	Stephen Streater '19	Fort Lauderdale High School	13/13	1.59^u	3.55	+1.97	75th → 99th	11.2	5%	7.5 / 11.1
7	Caleb Yoslov '21	Redwood High School	13/13	1.97	2.79	+0.82	83rd → 96th	2.9	20%	7.6 / 10.1
8	Cameron Feves '18	Long Beach Polytechnic HS	13/13	2.66	2.45	−0.21	94th → 91st	0.2	57%	8.4 / 8.2
9	Jake Vickers '18	Archbishop Spalding	13/13	2.90	2.32	−0.59	97th → 88th	1.3	78%	9.1 / 7.6
10	Ted Bjerregaard '18	St. George's School Dragons 1	13/13	2.17	2.11	−0.06	85th → 84th	0.0	50%	9.5 / 9.6
11	Paul Lobree '18	Ransom Everglades School	13/13	2.23	2.36	+0.14	87th → 89th	0.1	55%	9.6 / 9.4
12	Michael Ehnot '18	Christian Brothers Academy	13/13	2.18	1.89	−0.28	86th → 82nd	0.4	67%	10.3 / 9.5
13	Marina West '22	Friday Harbor High School	13/13	1.85	2.04	+0.19	81st → 83rd	0.2	52%	10.4 / 10.3
14	Owen Timms '19	Olympia High School	13/13	2.11	1.90	−0.21	84th → 82nd	0.2	79%	11.9 / 9.7
15	Owen Patterson '19	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	13/13	1.75	0.88	−0.88	79th → 53rd	4.4	97%	14.5 / 10.7
16	Nikolas Chambers '19	Latin School of Chicago	13/13	1.42	0.62	−0.80	70th → 43rd	3.2	95%	14.7 / 11.5
17	Alex Johnson '18	University Liggett School	13/13	0.83	0.35	−0.48	51st → 32nd	0.8	97%	16.2 / 12.9
18	Connor Murphy '19	The Benjamin School	13/13	1.02	-0.69	−1.71	58th → 8th	5.6	>99%	17.3 / 12.5

Conditions — 10/28/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 78% · Pressure 1010.7 hPa

Temperature

74°F

↑ 78°F ↓ 68°F

Feels like 77°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.7 kn

avg · max 10.1 kn

Gusts to 19.8 kn

From E (86°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover82% Sunshine4.1 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1010.7 hPa Rain0.28 in

What this breeze does at Lakewood/Osceola Fundamental/Shorecrest Prep/St. Petersburg — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Lakewood/Osceola Fundamental/Shorecrest Prep/St. Petersburg in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.03)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Lakewood/Osceola Fundamental/Shorecrest Prep/St. Petersburg by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Lakewood/Osceola Fundamental/Shorecrest Prep/St. Petersburg: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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