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ISSA Cressy Nationals Radial

# SchoolSailor TOT
1 Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy Chase Carraway '18 55
2 Riverview High School Riverview High School Lillian Myers '19 56
3 Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Aidan Hoogland '20 67
4 Long Beach High School Long Beach High School Ricky Welch '19 79
5 Ranney School Ranney School Cameron Giblin '19 83
6 Santa Barbara High School Santa Barbara High School Caden Scheiblauer '19 93
7 St. George's School St. George's School Alex Fasolo '18 95
8 Pine View School Pine View School Hallie Schiffman '18 95
9 Oregon City High School Oregon City High School Grant Gridley '18 112
10 Highland Park High School - IL Highland Park High School - IL Lawson Levine '20 114
11 Corona del Mar High School Corona del Mar High School Max Mayol '19 139
12 Ranney School Ranney School Luke Arnone '19 142
13 Westhill High School Westhill High School Timothy (Tj) Danilek '18 147
14 Falmouth High School Falmouth High School Peter Morrissette '18 162
15 Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School Christian Spencer '18 177
16 Orono High School Orono High School Samuel Bartel '18 193
17 Christchurch School Christchurch School Benton Amthor '19 209
18 Forest Ridge Forest Ridge Abbie Carlson '18 213
SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 TOT
Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy Chase Carraway '18 10 15 3 2 6 6 5 1 1 2 1 2 1 55
Riverview High School Riverview High School Lillian Myers '19 7 5 7 11 1 1 7 2 2 5 3 3 2 56
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Aidan Hoogland '20 6 10 12 3 4 2 1 3 6 1 12 4 3 67
Long Beach High School Long Beach High School Ricky Welch '19 1 6 9 9 2 7 2 6 8 8 11 6 4 79
Ranney School Ranney School Cameron Giblin '19 2 14 4 13 3 3 3 9 9 4 10 1 8 83
Santa Barbara High School Santa Barbara High School Caden Scheiblauer '19 18 11 1 1 13 9 4 4 7 3 6 9 7 93
St. George's School St. George's School Alex Fasolo '18 4 9 2 6 9 4 13 10 3 7 8 7 13 95
Pine View School Pine View School Hallie Schiffman '18 5 2 11 7 11 5 12 5 5 9 7 10 6 95
Oregon City High School Oregon City High School Grant Gridley '18 8 4 6 10 10 8 10 12 11 6 9 8 10 112
Highland Park High School - IL Highland Park High School - IL Lawson Levine '20 13 16 8 4 7 11 6 8 4 11 4 13 9 114
Corona del Mar High School Corona del Mar High School Max Mayol '19 3 12 5 16 8 10 14 11 10 10 14 12 14 139
Ranney School Ranney School Luke Arnone '19 15 1 13 15 12 15 15 15 13 13 5 5 5 142
Westhill High School Westhill High School Timothy (Tj) Danilek '18 12 7 DNF 5 5 12 8 13 12 DNF 13 11 11 147
Falmouth High School Falmouth High School Peter Morrissette '18 17 18 17 8 16 13 9 7 16 12 2 15 12 162
Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School Christian Spencer '18 14 8 10 12 17 17 11 14 14 14 15 16 15 177
Orono High School Orono High School Samuel Bartel '18 16 3 14 14 15 18 18 17 15 15 17 14 17 193
Christchurch School Christchurch School Benton Amthor '19 11 17 15 17 18 16 17 16 17 16 16 17 16 209
Forest Ridge Forest Ridge Abbie Carlson '18 9 13 16 18 14 14 16 18 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 213

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  18 boats · 13 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Chase Carraway '18Cape Fear Academy13/133.164.08+0.9299th → 99th3.34%4.2 / 7.3
2Lillian Myers '19Riverview High School13/132.624.24+1.6394th → 99th9.41%4.3 / 8.9
3Aidan Hoogland '20Point Loma High School13/132.543.81+1.2892nd → 99th6.37%5.2 / 9.2
4Ricky Welch '19Long Beach High School13/131.733.65+1.9279th → 99th13.02%6.1 / 11.3
5Cameron Giblin '19Ranney School Panthers 213/132.563.44+0.8892nd → 99th3.310%6.4 / 9.1
6Caden Scheiblauer '19Santa Barbara High School13/132.193.02+0.8486th → 98th2.79%7.2 / 10.1
7Alex Fasolo '18St. George's School13/132.533.27+0.7392nd → 99th2.427%7.3 / 9.2
7Hallie Schiffman '18Pine View School13/132.833.26+0.4396th → 99th0.935%7.3 / 8.3
9Grant Gridley '18Oregon City High School13/132.273.03+0.7688th → 98th2.630%8.6 / 9.8
10Lawson Levine '20Highland Park High School - IL13/132.112.87+0.7684th → 97th2.624%8.8 / 10.3
11Max Mayol '19Corona del Mar High School13/133.122.38−0.7499th → 90th3.488%10.7 / 7.6
12Luke Arnone '19Ranney School Panthers 113/132.812.26−0.5696th → 87th1.883%10.9 / 8.4
13Timothy (Tj) Danilek '18Westhill High School13/131.33u2.74+1.4067th → 95th6.736%11.3 / 12.2
14Peter Morrissette '18Falmouth High School13/132.221.66−0.5787th → 77th1.681%12.5 / 10.0
15Christian Spencer '18Kettle Moraine High School13/132.491.80−0.7092nd → 80th3.098%13.6 / 9.2
16Samuel Bartel '18Orono High School13/132.291.02−1.2788th → 58th8.299%14.8 / 9.8
17Benton Amthor '19Christchurch School13/132.810.66−2.1596th → 45th28.0>99%16.1 / 8.3
18Abbie Carlson '18Forest Ridge13/131.581.32−0.2675th → 67th0.2>99%16.4 / 11.8

Conditions — 10/28/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 78%  ·  Pressure 1010.7 hPa

Temperature

74°F
↑ 78°F   ↓ 68°F
Feels like 77°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.7 kn
avg  ·  max 10.1 kn
Gusts to 19.8 kn
From E (86°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover82% Sunshine4.1 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1010.7 hPa Rain0.28 in

What this breeze does at Lakewood/Osceola Fundamental/Shorecrest Prep/St. Petersburg — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Lakewood/Osceola Fundamental/Shorecrest Prep/St. Petersburg in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Lakewood/Osceola Fundamental/Shorecrest Prep/St. Petersburg by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Lakewood/Osceola Fundamental/Shorecrest Prep/St. Petersburg: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →