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MISSA Great Oaks - Championship Fleet

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 51 51
2 Orono High School Orono High School Scarlet 51 51
3 Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy 52 52
4 Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Panthers 53 53
5 Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Zephyrs 59 59
6 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 60 60
7 Benilde St Margarets Benilde St Margarets Red 68 68
8 University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 71 71
9 St. Paul Central High School St. Paul Central High School Varsity 76 76
10 Fenwick High School Fenwick High School Friars 90 90
11 Lyons Township High School Lyons Township High School Lions 97 97
12 Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 100 100
13 Mounds View High School Mounds View High School Mustangs 104 104
14 Washburn High School Washburn High School Varsity 125 125
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 1 8 2 5 8 7 10 8 1 1 51 Harrison George '18
Alexandra Soo '18
Orono High School Orono High School Scarlet 3 4 11 4 7 6 1 6 2 7 51 Seamus Hendrickson '21 [1-10]
Mei Vickery '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Megan Schoenzeit '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy 8 6 4 3 4 3 DSQ 1 5 3 52 Emma Aubuchon '19
Ellen Tovb '19
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Panthers 4 2 5 2 5 1 12 9 8 5 53 Toby Sullivan '19 [1-10]
Karan Jain '19 [1-4, 8]
Jose Varela '19 [5-7, 9-10]
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Zephyrs 11 9 1 1 1 OCS 7 2 4 8 59 Genna Viggiano '18
Clara Brown '18
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 2 1 7 12 6 2 2 10 9 9 60 Noah Wolters '19 [1-3, 5-10]
Bryson Hough '21 [4]
Abby Airo '20 [1-3, 5-10]
Benilde St Margarets Benilde St Margarets Red 10 3 10 10 9 4 9 3 6 4 68 Walker Mullin '19
Clare Leeper '19
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 9 7 8 6 2 8 6 12 7 6 71 Lillian Nemeth '18
Emerson Wright '20
St. Paul Central High School St. Paul Central High School Varsity 7 13 3 14 10 5 4 5 3 12 76 Aidan Boylan '18
Leif Saveraid '18
Fenwick High School Fenwick High School Friars 5 5 9 11 3 9 11 14 13 10 90 Harry Bearrows '18 [1-10]
Maura Hopkinson '20 [1-6, 8]
John Hultquist '20 [7, 9-10]
Lyons Township High School Lyons Township High School Lions 6 10 13 7 12 OCS 3 4 14 13 97 Lily Wojcik '18 [1-8]
Sam Wojcik '20 [9-10]
Abbey Walls '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Sam Wojcik '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 12 12 12 9 13 OCS 8 7 10 2 100 Tighe Case '18 [1-2, 6-10]
Thomas Jagielski '18 [3-5]
James Jagielski '21 [1-7]
Remi Clark '20 [8-10]
Mounds View High School Mounds View High School Mustangs 13 11 6 8 11 11 5 13 12 14 104 Morgan Termaat '18 [1-4]
Till Konczak '18 [5-10]
Jack Colosi '25 [1-4]
Morgan Termaat '18 [5-10]
Washburn High School Washburn High School Varsity 14 14 14 13 14 10 13 11 11 11 125 Sean Mcaneney '21
Emma Haugstad '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (11 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Benilde St MargaretsBenilde St Margarets Red1122334455
University of Chicago Laboratory SchoolsUniversity of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons1212131314141122
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School Varsity2233445566
Fenwick High SchoolFenwick High School Friars3344556677
Lyons Township High SchoolLyons Township High School Lions4455667788
MahtomediMahtomedi Zephyrs5566778899
Mounds Park AcademyMounds Park Academy Panthers667788991010
Mounds View High SchoolMounds View High School Mustangs77889910101111
Orono High SchoolOrono High School Scarlet8899101011111212
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Varsity991010111112121313
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red10101111121213131414
St. Paul Central High SchoolSt. Paul Central High School Varsity111112121313141411
Washburn High SchoolWashburn High School Varsity13131414112233
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Navy141411223344
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Benilde St Margarets Benilde St Margarets Red Walker Mullin '19 Clare Leeper '19
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity Harrison George '18 Alexandra Soo '18
Fenwick High School Fenwick High School Friars Harry Bearrows '18 [1-10] Maura Hopkinson '20 [1-6, 8]
John Hultquist '20 [7, 9-10]
Lyons Township High School Lyons Township High School Lions Lily Wojcik '18 [1-8]
Sam Wojcik '20 [9-10]		 Abbey Walls '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Sam Wojcik '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Zephyrs Genna Viggiano '18 Clara Brown '18
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Panthers Toby Sullivan '19 [1-10] Karan Jain '19 [1-4, 8]
Jose Varela '19 [5-7, 9-10]
Mounds View High School Mounds View High School Mustangs Morgan Termaat '18 [1-4]
Till Konczak '18 [5-10]		 Jack Colosi '25 [1-4]
Morgan Termaat '18 [5-10]
Orono High School Orono High School Scarlet Seamus Hendrickson '21 [1-10] Mei Vickery '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Megan Schoenzeit '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity Tighe Case '18 [1-2, 6-10]
Thomas Jagielski '18 [3-5]		 James Jagielski '21 [1-7]
Remi Clark '20 [8-10]
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Noah Wolters '19 [1-3, 5-10]
Bryson Hough '21 [4]		 Abby Airo '20 [1-3, 5-10]
St. Paul Central High School St. Paul Central High School Varsity Aidan Boylan '18 Leif Saveraid '18
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons Lillian Nemeth '18 Emerson Wright '20
Washburn High School Washburn High School Varsity Sean Mcaneney '21 Emma Haugstad '20
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy Emma Aubuchon '19 Ellen Tovb '19

Conditions — 10/07/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 84%  ·  Pressure 1020.2 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 75°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.8 kn
avg  ·  max 9.6 kn
Gusts to 20.0 kn
From SSE (166°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover95% Sunshine8.2 hrs Humidity84% Pressure1020.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 8 kn · SW 14 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Benilde St Margarets/Chanhassen/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata: a typical day (+0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment −0.03 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.02 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Benilde St Margarets/Chanhassen/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at Benilde St Margarets/Chanhassen/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →