MISSA Great Oaks (Z-420 Qualifying)

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Panthers 18 18
2 Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy 22 22
3 Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 23 23
4 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 25 25
5 Lyons Township High School Lyons Township High School Lions 36 36
6 Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 40 40
7 Benilde St Margarets Benilde St Margarets Red 41 41
8 Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles 44 44
9 Edina High School Edina High School Varsity 47 47
10 West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 48 48
11 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 53 53
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Panthers 6 1 1 3 4 3 18 Toby Sullivan '19 [1-6]
Karan Jain '19 [1-4]
Jose Varela '19 [5-6]
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy 1 4 4 8 3 2 22 Emma Aubuchon '19
Ellen Tovb '19
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 3 6 3 4 2 5 23 Harrison George '18
Alexandra Soo '18
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 4 8 2 2 5 4 25 Noah Wolters '19
Abby Airo '20
Lyons Township High School Lyons Township High School Lions 7 2 5 6 8 8 36 Lily Wojcik '18 [1-6]
Sam Wojcik '20 [1-4]
Abbey Walls '20 [5-6]
Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity 2 3 DSQ 1 11 11 40 Tighe Case '18 [1-4]
Thomas Jagielski '18 [5-6]
James Jagielski '21 [1-5]
Remi Clark '20 [6]
Benilde St Margarets Benilde St Margarets Red 5 5 8 10 7 6 41 Walker Mullin '19
Clare Leeper '19
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles 8 9 6 5 9 7 44 Caleb Barrett '20 [1-2]
Beckett Kumler '20 [3-6]
Audrey Quist '19 [1-2]
Hanna Siwek '19 [3-6]
Edina High School Edina High School Varsity 9 10 10 11 6 1 47 Kate Higgins '18 [1-3, 5-6]
Marit Lebakken '20 [4]
Marit Lebakken '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Gracie Drought '20 [3-4]
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 11 11 9 7 1 9 48 Jack Bull '19 [1-2]
Nicole Millerman '19 [3-6]
Isabel Dziuba '19 [1-2]
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 10 7 7 9 10 10 53 Austin Suvari '19
Lucy Mulvihill '18
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (11 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Benilde St MargaretsBenilde St Margarets Red112233
Culver AcademiesCulver Academies Eagles223344
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School Varsity334455
Edina High SchoolEdina High School Varsity445566
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Wildkits556677
Lyons Township High SchoolLyons Township High School Lions667788
Mounds Park AcademyMounds Park Academy Panthers778899
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Varsity88991010
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red9910101111
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Navy1010111111
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity11111122
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Benilde St Margarets Benilde St Margarets Red Walker Mullin '19 Clare Leeper '19
Culver Academies Culver Academies Eagles Caleb Barrett '20 [1-2]
Beckett Kumler '20 [3-6]
Audrey Quist '19 [1-2]
Hanna Siwek '19 [3-6]
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity Harrison George '18 Alexandra Soo '18
Edina High School Edina High School Varsity Kate Higgins '18 [1-3, 5-6]
Marit Lebakken '20 [4]
Marit Lebakken '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Gracie Drought '20 [3-4]
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits Austin Suvari '19 Lucy Mulvihill '18
Lyons Township High School Lyons Township High School Lions Lily Wojcik '18 [1-6] Sam Wojcik '20 [1-4]
Abbey Walls '20 [5-6]
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Panthers Toby Sullivan '19 [1-6] Karan Jain '19 [1-4]
Jose Varela '19 [5-6]
Southwest High School Southwest High School Varsity Tighe Case '18 [1-4]
Thomas Jagielski '18 [5-6]
James Jagielski '21 [1-5]
Remi Clark '20 [6]
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Noah Wolters '19 Abby Airo '20
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy Emma Aubuchon '19 Ellen Tovb '19
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity Jack Bull '19 [1-2]
Nicole Millerman '19 [3-6]
Isabel Dziuba '19 [1-2]

Conditions — 10/07/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 84%  ·  Pressure 1020.2 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 75°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.8 kn
avg  ·  max 9.6 kn
Gusts to 20.0 kn
From SSE (166°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover95% Sunshine8.2 hrs Humidity84% Pressure1020.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Benilde St Margarets/Chanhassen/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.02 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.12 ± 0.26)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Benilde St Margarets/Chanhassen/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at Benilde St Margarets/Chanhassen/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →