Navigate

MN State Singlehanded Champ Radial

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Matthew Kickhafer '19 2 1 1 2 1 3 2 1 13
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Graham Ness '19 3 2 2 3 3 2 5 3 23
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Nate Olmsted '19 7 4 3 1 2 1 4 2 24
Orono High School Orono High School Seamus Hendrickson '21 1 3 5 4 5 4 1 4 27
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Emma Aubuchon '19 5 8 4 5 8 5 6 6 47
Mounds View High School Mounds View High School Morgan Termaat '18 11 6 6 6 4 13 10 5 61
St. Paul Central High School St. Paul Central High School Aidan Boylan '18 4 9 7 13 6 7 9 7 62
Orono High School Orono High School Rachel Bartel '20 12 7 8 12 7 6 8 9 69
Orono High School Orono High School Archie Bolgar '19 8 11 9 8 11 14 3 8 72
Orono High School Orono High School Kytalin Hendrickson '22 9 10 10 11 9 9 7 10 75
Edina High School Edina High School George Moore '19 10 13 13 9 12 8 11 12 88
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Garrett Moen '19 13 15 11 10 10 10 13 11 93
Southwest Senior High School Southwest Senior High School James Jagielski '21 15 14 14 7 13 11 12 14 100
Benilde St Margarets Benilde St Margarets Clare Leeper '19 14 12 12 15 DNF 12 14 13 109
Orono High School Orono High School Samuel Bartel '18 6 5 DNF DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 113
Orono High School Orono High School Jack "Henry" Strommen '21 16 16 15 14 14 DNS DNS DNS 126

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  16 boats · 8 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Matthew Kickhafer '19Minnetonka High School Skippers 38/81.865.15+3.2881st → 99th14.4<1%1.6 / 7.1
2Graham Ness '19Minnetonka High School Skippers 28/82.023.65+1.6383rd → 99th5.33%2.9 / 6.8
3Nate Olmsted '19Minnetonka High School Skippers 18/82.153.54+1.3985th → 99th4.15%3.0 / 6.5
4Seamus Hendrickson '21Orono High School Scarlet 48/81.733.27+1.5379th → 99th5.03%3.4 / 7.5
5Emma Aubuchon '19Wayzata High School8/82.032.13+0.0983rd → 84th0.038%5.9 / 6.8
6Morgan Termaat '18Mounds View High School8/80.911.31+0.4054th → 67th0.425%7.6 / 9.4
7Aidan Boylan '18St. Paul Central High School8/80.861.46+0.6052nd → 72nd1.026%7.8 / 9.4
8Rachel Bartel '20Orono High School Scarlet 38/81.551.19−0.3574th → 65th0.464%8.6 / 7.9
9Archie Bolgar '19Orono High School Scarlet 58/81.020.80−0.2358th → 50th0.149%9.0 / 9.1
10Kytalin Hendrickson '22Orono High School Scarlet 28/81.341.06−0.2868th → 60th0.364%9.4 / 8.4
11George Moore '19Edina High School8/81.090.42−0.6760th → 34th1.681%11.0 / 8.9
12Garrett Moen '19Minnetonka High School Skippers 48/80.460.29−0.1736th → 30th0.168%11.6 / 10.4
13James Jagielski '21Southwest Senior High School8/80.27-0.23−0.5030th → 16th0.876%12.5 / 10.8
14Clare Leeper '19Benilde St Margarets8/8-0.12-0.51−0.4019th → 11th0.382%13.6 / 11.5
15Samuel Bartel '18Orono High School Scarlet 18/82.302.53+0.2388th → 92nd0.0>99%14.1 / 6.2
16Jack "Henry" Strommen '21Orono High School Scarlet 68/80.96u-2.85−3.8157th → 1st17.6>99%15.8 / 9.3

Conditions — 10/01/2017 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 72%  ·  Pressure 1012.7 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 54°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.4 kn
avg  ·  max 13.1 kn
Gusts to 33.0 kn
From SSE (155°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine0.5 hrs Humidity72% Pressure1012.7 hPa Rain0.36 in

What this breeze does at Minnetonka — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Minnetonka in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.02)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Minnetonka by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Minnetonka, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →