NorCal #1 Gold

HostBerkeley
Date09/30/2017
TypeIn-District
BoatCFJ
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	26	26
2	Aptos High School	Mariners	44	44
3	San Francisco University High School	Red Devils	49	49
4	Head Royce	Jayhawks	51	51
5	The Urban School	Blues	61	61
6	Amador Valley	Dons	62	62
7	Alameda High School	Hornets 2	62	62
8	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	65	65
9	Alameda High School	Hornets 1	68	68
10	Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	79	79
11	Crystal Springs Uplands School	Griffins	82	82
12	Stevenson School	Pirates	95	95
13	Design Tech High School	d.tech 3	105	105
14	Design Tech High School	d.tech 4	112	112

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	TOT	Sailors
Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	1	DSQ	1	1	1	1	3	2	1	26	Jack Lugliani '18 [1-9] Zach Morley '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9] Kieran Elron '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Aptos High School	Mariners	2	3	3	2	2	7	1	11	13	44	Dana Foley '18 Sam Bach '19
San Francisco University High School	Red Devils	7	7	5	10	6	2	2	5	5	49	Micherice Tao '19 Anson Walker '21
Head Royce	Jayhawks	3	1	4	11	5	5	9	6	7	51	Jasper Reid '21 [1-9] Pierce Yeary '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9] Parker Mergelkamp '21 [3-4, 7-8]
The Urban School	Blues	DNS	5	9	7	8	6	4	4	3	61	J.P. Murphy '21 [1-9] Anna Krylova '20 [1, 3, 5, 7, 9] Dinah Luomanen '21 [2, 4, 6, 8]
Amador Valley	Dons	4	2	7	6	3	8	8	12	12	62	Christopher Hopkins '21 Maks Shikhaleev '22
Alameda High School	Hornets 2	8	4	13	4	11	4	7	7	4	62	Gemma Hanson '20 [1, 5] Kyle Hoffman '22 [2-4, 6-9] Liam Orozco '19 [1-5] Gemma Hanson '20 [6] Cooper Butler-Brown '21 [7-9]
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	9	8	10	9	10	3	5	1	10	65	Fredrick Baldauf '20 Derek Kuno-Williams '20
Alameda High School	Hornets 1	DNS	6	2	3	4	10	10	3	DNS	68	Carl Fhyr '21 [1-5] Liam Orozco '19 [6-9] Sean Tolen '21 [1-2, 5-9] Cooper Butler-Brown '21 [3-4]
Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	5	DNS	12	5	7	9	14	10	2	79	Jemma Schroder '20 Madelyn Blessinger '19
Crystal Springs Uplands School	Griffins	6	DSQ	11	8	9	11	6	8	8	82	Mason Stang '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9] Wiley Yu '18 [3-4, 7-8] Anthony Newman '21 [1-9]
Stevenson School	Pirates	10	10	8	13	13	12	11	9	9	95	Kay Du '18 Henry Li '19
Design Tech High School	d.tech 3	11	DNS	6	DNS	12	13	13	14	6	105	Tanner Gee '18 [1-9] Michael Mcculloch '21 [1-2, 7-8] Joss Ettrick '21 [3-4, 9] Teddy Knobel '21 [5-6]
Design Tech High School	d.tech 4	12	9	14	12	DNF	14	12	13	11	112	Timmy Gee '20 [1-9] Josh Goldberg '21 [1-2, 5, 8-9] Griffin Conley '21 [3-4, 6-7]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.070+0.07

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A
Alameda High School Hornets 1	58	58	58	58	58	58	58	58	58
Alameda High School Hornets 2	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	57	57
Amador Valley Dons	54	54	54	54	54	54	54	54	54
Aptos High School Mariners	101	101	101	101	101	101	101	101	101
Crystal Springs Uplands School Griffins	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36
Design Tech High School d.tech 1	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40
Design Tech High School d.tech 2	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39
Design Tech High School d.tech 3	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38
Design Tech High School d.tech 4	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37	37
Head Royce Jayhawks	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55
San Francisco University High School Red Devils	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Stevenson School Pirates	99	99	99	99	99	99	99	99	99
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	83	83	83	83	83	83	83	83	83
The Urban School Blues	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Alameda High School	Hornets 1	Carl Fhyr '21 [1-5] Liam Orozco '19 [6-9]	Sean Tolen '21 [1-2, 5-9] Cooper Butler-Brown '21 [3-4]
Alameda High School	Hornets 2	Gemma Hanson '20 [1, 5] Kyle Hoffman '22 [2-4, 6-9]	Liam Orozco '19 [1-5] Gemma Hanson '20 [6] Cooper Butler-Brown '21 [7-9]
Amador Valley	Dons	Christopher Hopkins '21	Maks Shikhaleev '22
Aptos High School	Mariners	Dana Foley '18	Sam Bach '19
Crystal Springs Uplands School	Griffins	Mason Stang '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9] Wiley Yu '18 [3-4, 7-8]	Anthony Newman '21 [1-9]
Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	Jack Lugliani '18 [1-9]	Zach Morley '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9] Kieran Elron '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	Jemma Schroder '20	Madelyn Blessinger '19
Design Tech High School	d.tech 3	Tanner Gee '18 [1-9]	Michael Mcculloch '21 [1-2, 7-8] Joss Ettrick '21 [3-4, 9] Teddy Knobel '21 [5-6]
Design Tech High School	d.tech 4	Timmy Gee '20 [1-9]	Josh Goldberg '21 [1-2, 5, 8-9] Griffin Conley '21 [3-4, 6-7]
Head Royce	Jayhawks	Jasper Reid '21 [1-9]	Pierce Yeary '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9] Parker Mergelkamp '21 [3-4, 7-8]
San Francisco University High School	Red Devils	Micherice Tao '19	Anson Walker '21
Stevenson School	Pirates	Kay Du '18	Henry Li '19
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	Fredrick Baldauf '20	Derek Kuno-Williams '20
The Urban School	Blues	J.P. Murphy '21 [1-9]	Anna Krylova '20 [1, 3, 5, 7, 9] Dinah Luomanen '21 [2, 4, 6, 8]

Conditions — 09/30/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 63% · Pressure 1014.3 hPa

Temperature

68°F

↑ 73°F ↓ 57°F

Feels like 68°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.8 kn

avg · max 7.0 kn

Gusts to 18.7 kn

From SW (220°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover38% Sunshine10.5 hrs Humidity63% Pressure1014.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 12 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Berkeley: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.19)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.10

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.31 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.19 means a rating gap counts about 17% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Berkeley by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (24 labelled days at Berkeley).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu