SAISA NP#4 12/2/2017

HostLake Lanier Sailing Club
Date12/02/2017
TypeDistrict Tournament
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny	19	19	38
2	Beaufort High School	Varsity	17	22	39
3	The Walker School	Wolverines	28	24	52
4	Wando High School	Wando Warriors	24	35	59
5	Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	32	36	68
6	James Island Charter High School	Varsity	37	37	74
7	Glynn Academy	Varsity	31	59	90
8	Riverside Military Academy	Riverside Military A	63	29	92
9	Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	57	44	101
10	Atlanta Classical Academy	The Cavaliers	49	56	105
11	Richmond Hill High School	Varsity	66	42	108
12	North Atlanta High School	Warriors	45	67	112

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Beaufort High School	Varsity	6	1	2	2	2	4	17	Alex Mazzeo '18 [1-6] Jacob Lawson '18 [1-4] Thomas Gnann '20 [5-6]
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny	2	2	3	7	4	1	19	William Weinbecker '21 Maggie Mclauchlin '21
Wando High School	Wando Warriors	10	8	1	1	1	3	24	Sydney Register '18 Addison Terry '19
The Walker School	Wolverines	1	6	4	10	5	2	28	Carlyn Blauvelt '19 Erika Kaczynski '20
Glynn Academy	Varsity	4	5	5	5	3	9	31	Alex Graiser '18 Riley Power '18
Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	3	3	10	4	7	5	32	Jacob Thompson '18 [1-6] Evan Chenard '20 [1-2] Chris Hartman '20 [3-6]
James Island Charter High School	Varsity	8	4	8	3	6	8	37	Jordan Newland '18 [1-6] Britton Durst '19 [1-2, 5-6] Camdyn Williams '21 [3-4]
North Atlanta High School	Warriors	5	9	6	11	8	6	45	Ethan Staats '20 [1-6] Nora Rosenfeld '21 [1-2] Graham Lee '20 [3-4] Nazuna Kasama '19 [5-6]
Atlanta Classical Academy	The Cavaliers	11	7	7	6	11	7	49	Lucy Spearman '21 [1-6] Kristen Blount '21 [1-2] Darden Braun '20 [3-6]
Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	7	12	9	9	10	10	57	Josh Mergenthaler '21 Jesse Singh '20
Riverside Military Academy	Riverside Military A	12	11	11	8	9	12	63	Samuel Buchanan '19 [1-6] Will Fox '19 [1-2] Yuri Zarus '18 [3-6]
Richmond Hill High School	Varsity	9	10	12	12	12	11	66	Cohen Hughes '19 Abby Sides '19

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny	1	1	DSQ	2	1	1	19	Reedy Monahan '20 Allison Weinbecker '18
Beaufort High School	Varsity	5	3	4	5	3	2	22	Chris Hoogenboom '18 [1-6] Abbie Pollitzer '21 [1-2, 5-6] Clay Myers '21 [3-4]
The Walker School	Wolverines	4	7	6	1	2	4	24	Evie Blauvelt '21 [1-6] Grayson Berrier '21 [1-2, 5-6] Katrin Surkan '21 [3-4]
Riverside Military Academy	Riverside Military A	6	5	2	4	4	8	29	Will Fox '19 [1-4] Kirby Smith '19 [5-6] Kirby Smith '19 [1-4] Robert Licciardi '21 [5-6]
Wando High School	Wando Warriors	3	6	1	3	DSQ	9	35	Ben Labarca '20 Evy Apostolou '19
Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	9	2	7	8	5	5	36	Evan Chenard '20 Bobby Missert '20
James Island Charter High School	Varsity	11	4	3	6	6	7	37	Megan Fetterley '19 [1-6] Bobby Baker '18 [1-2, 5-6] Mcgill Woodward '21 [3-4]
Richmond Hill High School	Varsity	2	8	8	11	7	6	42	Cade Hughes '18 Regina Fusile '18
Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	8	9	5	9	10	3	44	Alli Volk '21 Jenna Stephens '18
Atlanta Classical Academy	The Cavaliers	7	11	10	7	9	12	56	Ellie Spearman '21 [1-6] Olivia Holstein '20 [1-2, 5-6] Kristen Blount '21 [3-4]
Glynn Academy	Varsity	10	10	9	12	8	10	59	Sarah Weese '20 [1-2] Stefan Tobler '18 [3-6] Christoph Tobler '20 [1-2] Sarah Weese '20 [3-6]
North Atlanta High School	Warriors	12	12	11	10	11	11	67	Nora Rosenfeld '21 [1-4] Viren Aluri '21 [5-6] Harrison Marx '20 [1-4] Nora Rosenfeld '21 [5-6]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.110+0.11

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Atlanta Classical Academy The Cavaliers	1	1	3	3	5	5
Beaufort High School Varsity	2	2	4	4	6	6
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny	3	3	5	5	7	7
Glynn Academy Varsity	4	4	6	6	8	8
James Island Charter High School Varsity	5	5	7	7	9	9
Lake Norman High School Wildcats	6	6	8	8	10	10
North Atlanta High School Warriors	7	7	9	9	11	11
Pine Lake Prep Varsity	8	8	10	10	12	12
Richmond Hill High School Varsity	9	9	11	11	1	1
Riverside Military Academy Riverside Military A	10	10	12	12	2	2
The Walker School Wolverines	11	11	1	1	3	3
Wando High School Wando Warriors	12	12	2	2	4	4

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Atlanta Classical Academy The Cavaliers	2	2	4	4	6	6
Beaufort High School Varsity	3	3	5	5	7	7
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny	4	4	6	6	8	8
Glynn Academy Varsity	5	5	7	7	9	9
James Island Charter High School Varsity	6	6	8	8	10	10
Lake Norman High School Wildcats	7	7	9	9	11	11
North Atlanta High School Warriors	8	8	10	10	12	12
Pine Lake Prep Varsity	9	9	11	11	1	1
Richmond Hill High School Varsity	10	10	12	12	2	2
Riverside Military Academy Riverside Military A	11	11	1	1	3	3
The Walker School Wolverines	12	12	2	2	4	4
Wando High School Wando Warriors	1	1	3	3	5	5

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Atlanta Classical Academy	Lucy Spearman '21 [1-6]	Kristen Blount '21 [1-2] Darden Braun '20 [3-6]
The Cavaliers	Ellie Spearman '21 [1-6]	Olivia Holstein '20 [1-2, 5-6] Kristen Blount '21 [3-4]
Beaufort High School	Alex Mazzeo '18 [1-6]	Jacob Lawson '18 [1-4] Thomas Gnann '20 [5-6]
Varsity	Chris Hoogenboom '18 [1-6]	Abbie Pollitzer '21 [1-2, 5-6] Clay Myers '21 [3-4]
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	William Weinbecker '21	Maggie Mclauchlin '21
Bishop Kenny	Reedy Monahan '20	Allison Weinbecker '18
Glynn Academy	Alex Graiser '18	Riley Power '18
Varsity	Sarah Weese '20 [1-2] Stefan Tobler '18 [3-6]	Christoph Tobler '20 [1-2] Sarah Weese '20 [3-6]
James Island Charter High School	Jordan Newland '18 [1-6]	Britton Durst '19 [1-2, 5-6] Camdyn Williams '21 [3-4]
Varsity	Megan Fetterley '19 [1-6]	Bobby Baker '18 [1-2, 5-6] Mcgill Woodward '21 [3-4]
Lake Norman High School	Jacob Thompson '18 [1-6]	Evan Chenard '20 [1-2] Chris Hartman '20 [3-6]
Wildcats	Evan Chenard '20	Bobby Missert '20
North Atlanta High School	Ethan Staats '20 [1-6]	Nora Rosenfeld '21 [1-2] Graham Lee '20 [3-4] Nazuna Kasama '19 [5-6]
Warriors	Nora Rosenfeld '21 [1-4] Viren Aluri '21 [5-6]	Harrison Marx '20 [1-4] Nora Rosenfeld '21 [5-6]
Pine Lake Prep	Josh Mergenthaler '21	Jesse Singh '20
Varsity	Alli Volk '21	Jenna Stephens '18
Richmond Hill High School	Cohen Hughes '19	Abby Sides '19
Varsity	Cade Hughes '18	Regina Fusile '18
Riverside Military Academy	Samuel Buchanan '19 [1-6]	Will Fox '19 [1-2] Yuri Zarus '18 [3-6]
Riverside Military A	Will Fox '19 [1-4] Kirby Smith '19 [5-6]	Kirby Smith '19 [1-4] Robert Licciardi '21 [5-6]
The Walker School	Carlyn Blauvelt '19	Erika Kaczynski '20
Wolverines	Evie Blauvelt '21 [1-6]	Grayson Berrier '21 [1-2, 5-6] Katrin Surkan '21 [3-4]
Wando High School	Sydney Register '18	Addison Terry '19
Wando Warriors	Ben Labarca '20	Evy Apostolou '19

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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SAISA NP#4 12/2/2017

Division A

Division B

From the notes