Bishop Kenny High School - FL '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.86 (fleet 3.02) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–7 (36%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 3–1 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 1–6 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (11 matches) the record is 4–7 against 5.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-02-29 | FYC Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.02 | 1.60 | 3–1 | 3.2 | −0.42 | 0.0 | 83% |
| 2019-04-06 | SAISA Baker Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 1.69 | 0.02 | 1–6 | 2.3 | −1.66 | 1.1 | 96% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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