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SAISA Mallory Fleet Race Qualifier

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Panthers 47 57 104
2 Antilles School Antilles School Hurricanes 41 70 111
3 Immaculata La Salle High School Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 68 52 120
4 Riverview High School Riverview High School Varsity 58 79 137
5 Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 68 78 146
6 Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 83 63 146
7 Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 88 74 162
8 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 103 93 196
9 Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Sailors 100 96 196
10 Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny 137 113 250
11 The Walker School The Walker School Wolverines 151 131 282
12 Wando High School Wando High School Wando Warriors 137 149 286
13 James Island Charter High School James Island Charter High School Varsity 158 171 329
14 Hough High School Hough High School Hough High School 169 173 342
15 Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity 170 183 353
16 John Paul II (SC) John Paul II (SC) Varsity 190 188 378
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 TOT Sailors
Antilles School Antilles School Hurricanes 3 1 1 1 3 1 3 2 8 4 3 5 6 41 Teddy Nicolosi '19 [1-13]
Mia Nicolosi '21 [1-8]
Victoria Flatley '20 [9-13]
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Panthers 1 BKD 2 2 1 12 2 5 3 10 1 3 1 47 Connor Nelson '19
Tee Chulikavit '19
Riverview High School Riverview High School Varsity 6 2 7 4 7 2 7 4 2 3 5 1 8 58 Mark Brunsvold '19 [1-13]
Kay Brumsvold '21 [1-8]
Terra Ehrhart '20 [9-13]
Immaculata La Salle High School Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 2 7 3 OCS 8 3 1 3 6 2 7 2 7 68 Justin Callahan '22 [1-13]
Brianna Ross '22 [1-8]
Chiara Mierek '20 [9-10]
Antonio Miranda '20 [11-13]
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 4 6 14 5 2 4 8 1 7 7 2 4 4 68 Guthrie Braun '22
Thomas Cura '21
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 5 3 4 3 DSQ 5 9 8 4 1 6 6 12 83 Lachlain Mc Granahan '20 [1-6, 13]
Stephan Baker '22 [7-12]
Adam Kaplan '21 [1-12]
Hannah Bast '21 [13]
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 8 8 6 9 5 11 4 6 5 5 10 8 3 88 Daniel Hughes '21 [1-13]
Teddy Bueres '19 [1-8]
Abigail Sharp '22 [9-13]
Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Sailors 13 4 5 6 4 6 12 11 9 6 8 7 9 100 Matthew King '20 [1-8]
Thommi Gritt '22 [9-13]
Nick Powers '21 [1-8]
Matthew King '20 [9-13]
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 7 15 8 10 6 7 11 9 1 9 9 9 2 103 Libby Redmond '20 [1-4, 9-12]
Connor Boland '21 [5-8, 13]
Isa Duplessis '20 [1-8]
Emma Asturias '20 [9-12]
Daniel Neville '21 [13]
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny 12 5 10 7 9 9 6 12 14 12 11 14 16 137 William Weinbecker '21 [1-13]
Patrick Patangan '20 [1]
Maggie Mclauchlin '21 [2-13]
Wando High School Wando High School Wando Warriors DNF 11 9 8 14 16 14 7 11 8 4 13 5 137 Zack Carvajal '22
Lauren Creech '19
The Walker School The Walker School Wolverines 11 13 13 13 11 8 5 13 13 13 16 12 10 151 Carlyn Blauvelt '19
Erika Kaczynski '20
James Island Charter High School James Island Charter High School Varsity 9 16 12 11 12 13 15 15 10 11 12 11 11 158 Megan Fetterley '19 [1-6]
Britton Durst '19 [7-8]
Carson Shaw '22 [9-13]
Jack Mckenzie '22 [1-4]
Britton Durst '19 [5-6]
Mcgill Woodward '21 [7-8]
Camdyn Williams '21 [9-13]
Hough High School Hough High School Hough High School 15 10 15 14 10 14 10 14 15 16 13 10 13 169 Sully O'Donnell '21 [1-13]
Holladay Crook '22 [1-2, 5-6, 9-13]
Samantha Martin '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity 10 12 11 12 13 10 DSQ 10 16 14 14 RAF 14 170 Benjamin Smith '22 [1-13]
David Novak '20 [1-8]
Kellen Donlon '22 [9-10, 13]
William Lewis '21 [11-12]
John Paul II (SC) John Paul II (SC) Varsity 14 14 16 15 15 15 13 16 12 15 15 15 15 190 Thomas Mazzeo '22
Jack Gigante '22
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 TOT Sailors
Immaculata La Salle High School Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 8 4 7 2 1 1 8 7 2 2 2 2 6 52 Mitchell Callahan '22 [1-13]
Antonio Miranda '20 [1-8]
Brianna Ross '22 [9-13]
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Panthers 1 3 4 5 5 10 6 4 9 1 3 5 1 57 Brandon Geller '19
Dominic Canonico '19
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 5 1 6 6 8 2 7 5 3 4 5 8 3 63 Javier Garcon '21 [1-4]
Liam O'Keefe '21 [5-13]
Louis La Fontisse '21 [1-8]
Claire Holzman '21 [9-13]
Antilles School Antilles School Hurricanes 3 2 1 4 10 4 2 3 12 8 13 4 4 70 Christopher Sharpless '19 [1-6, 9-10]
Rayne Duff '21 [7-8, 11-13]
Mateo Di Blasi '21 [1-6]
Savannah Young '21 [7-8, 11-13]
Gillian Perrell '20 [9-10]
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 12 8 9 3 4 6 3 1 1 6 1 10 10 74 Kyle Bramson '20 [1-13]
Roberto Lugones '20 [1-8]
Karen Liberman '20 [9-13]
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 4 7 3 7 7 9 4 2 5 10 11 1 8 78 Elizabeth Shanahan '19 [1, 9-12]
Heather Kerns '20 [2-8, 13]
Lily Schneider '19 [1]
Elizabeth Shanahan '19 [2-8]
Karlei Kongsiri '19 [9-12]
Zachery Ofenloch '19 [13]
Riverview High School Riverview High School Varsity 10 5 8 8 3 5 10 6 4 5 4 9 2 79 Lillian Myers '19 [1-13]
Terra Ehrhart '20 [1-8]
Kay Brumsvold '21 [9-13]
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 6 13 5 10 9 3 5 11 7 3 9 3 9 93 Bobby Rielly '21 [1, 7-13]
Joey Meagher '20 [2-6]
Joey Meagher '20 [1, 13]
Bobby Rielly '21 [2-6]
Emma Asturias '20 [7-8]
Kenna Reed '20 [9-12]
Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Sailors 2 6 2 1 11 8 9 8 14 7 8 6 14 96 Will Murray '20
Dan Keim '19
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny BKD 9 11 12 6 7 1 10 8 12 6 7 15 113 Reedy Monahan '20 [1-12]
Bridget Monahan '22 [13]
Joseph Bradley Iv '19 [1-6, 13]
Bridget Monahan '22 [7-12]
The Walker School The Walker School Wolverines DNS 15 10 9 2 11 11 9 13 11 7 11 5 131 Evie Blauvelt '21 [1-13]
Grayson Berrier '21 [1, 11-12]
Katrin Surkan '21 [2-10, 13]
Wando High School Wando High School Wando Warriors 7 10 13 11 14 13 14 12 10 9 14 15 7 149 William Hussey '22 [1-8]
Heyward Main '19 [9-13]
Ian Bosse '21 [1-8]
Addison Terry '19 [9-13]
James Island Charter High School James Island Charter High School Varsity 11 11 12 13 15 12 16 15 11 15 15 13 12 171 Mason Baird '22 [1-8]
Jack Mckenzie '22 [9-13]
Carson Shaw '22 [1-6]
Andrew Shook '19 [7-8]
Mcgill Woodward '21 [9-10]
Mason Baird '22 [11-13]
Hough High School Hough High School Hough High School 13 14 16 15 16 15 13 14 6 13 10 12 16 173 Evan West '22 [1-13]
Luca Van Der Schoot '22 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13]
Caroline Coke '21 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity 9 12 15 14 13 16 15 13 16 DNF 16 14 13 183 Polk Baggett '22 [1-13]
William Lewis '21 [1-2]
Kellen Donlon '22 [3-8]
David Novak '20 [9-13]
John Paul II (SC) John Paul II (SC) Varsity DNS DNF 14 DNF 12 14 12 DNF 15 14 12 16 11 188 Neil Bunce '21
Noah Schickler '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.330+0.33
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A
Antilles SchoolAntilles School Hurricanes1122334455667
Bishop Kenny High School - FLBishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny2211161615151414131312
Cape Fear AcademyCape Fear Academy CFA Varsity3344556677889
Gulliver Preparatory SchoolGulliver Preparatory School Raiders443322111616151514
Hough High SchoolHough High School Hough High School66554433221116
Immaculata La Salle High SchoolImmaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions77889910101111121213
James Island Charter High SchoolJames Island Charter High School Varsity8877665544332
John Paul II (SC)John Paul II (SC) Varsity991010111112121313141415
H. B. Plant High SchoolH. B. Plant High School Panthers5566778899101011
Ransom Everglades SchoolRansom Everglades School Raiders101099887766554
Riverview High SchoolRiverview High School Varsity1111121213131414151516161
St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders14141313121211111010998
Sarasota High SchoolSarasota High School Sailors1212111110109988776
Shorecrest Preparatory SchoolShorecrest Preparatory School Chargers131314141515161611223
The Walker SchoolThe Walker School Wolverines15151616112233445
Wando High SchoolWando High School Wando Warriors16161515141413131212111110

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B
Antilles SchoolAntilles School Hurricanes991010111112121313141415
Bishop Kenny High School - FLBishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny101099887766554
Cape Fear AcademyCape Fear Academy CFA Varsity1111121213131414151516161
Gulliver Preparatory SchoolGulliver Preparatory School Raiders1212111110109988776
Hough High SchoolHough High School Hough High School14141313121211111010998
Immaculata La Salle High SchoolImmaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions15151616112233445
James Island Charter High SchoolJames Island Charter High School Varsity16161515141413131212111110
John Paul II (SC)John Paul II (SC) Varsity1122334455667
H. B. Plant High SchoolH. B. Plant High School Panthers131314141515161611223
Ransom Everglades SchoolRansom Everglades School Raiders2211161615151414131312
Riverview High SchoolRiverview High School Varsity3344556677889
St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders66554433221116
Sarasota High SchoolSarasota High School Sailors443322111616151514
Shorecrest Preparatory SchoolShorecrest Preparatory School Chargers5566778899101011
The Walker SchoolThe Walker School Wolverines77889910101111121213
Wando High SchoolWando High School Wando Warriors8877665544332
School / Team SkipperCrew
Antilles School Antilles School Teddy Nicolosi '19 [1-13] Mia Nicolosi '21 [1-8]
Victoria Flatley '20 [9-13]
Hurricanes Christopher Sharpless '19 [1-6, 9-10]
Rayne Duff '21 [7-8, 11-13]		 Mateo Di Blasi '21 [1-6]
Savannah Young '21 [7-8, 11-13]
Gillian Perrell '20 [9-10]
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny High School - FL William Weinbecker '21 [1-13] Patrick Patangan '20 [1]
Maggie Mclauchlin '21 [2-13]
Bishop Kenny Reedy Monahan '20 [1-12]
Bridget Monahan '22 [13]		 Joseph Bradley Iv '19 [1-6, 13]
Bridget Monahan '22 [7-12]
Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy Benjamin Smith '22 [1-13] David Novak '20 [1-8]
Kellen Donlon '22 [9-10, 13]
William Lewis '21 [11-12]
CFA Varsity Polk Baggett '22 [1-13] William Lewis '21 [1-2]
Kellen Donlon '22 [3-8]
David Novak '20 [9-13]
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Daniel Hughes '21 [1-13] Teddy Bueres '19 [1-8]
Abigail Sharp '22 [9-13]
Raiders Kyle Bramson '20 [1-13] Roberto Lugones '20 [1-8]
Karen Liberman '20 [9-13]
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Connor Nelson '19 Tee Chulikavit '19
Panthers Brandon Geller '19 Dominic Canonico '19
Hough High School Hough High School Sully O'Donnell '21 [1-13] Holladay Crook '22 [1-2, 5-6, 9-13]
Samantha Martin '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Hough High School Evan West '22 [1-13] Luca Van Der Schoot '22 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 13]
Caroline Coke '21 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Immaculata La Salle High School Immaculata La Salle High School Justin Callahan '22 [1-13] Brianna Ross '22 [1-8]
Chiara Mierek '20 [9-10]
Antonio Miranda '20 [11-13]
Royal Lions Mitchell Callahan '22 [1-13] Antonio Miranda '20 [1-8]
Brianna Ross '22 [9-13]
James Island Charter High School James Island Charter High School Megan Fetterley '19 [1-6]
Britton Durst '19 [7-8]
Carson Shaw '22 [9-13]		 Jack Mckenzie '22 [1-4]
Britton Durst '19 [5-6]
Mcgill Woodward '21 [7-8]
Camdyn Williams '21 [9-13]
Varsity Mason Baird '22 [1-8]
Jack Mckenzie '22 [9-13]		 Carson Shaw '22 [1-6]
Andrew Shook '19 [7-8]
Mcgill Woodward '21 [9-10]
Mason Baird '22 [11-13]
John Paul II (SC) John Paul II (SC) Thomas Mazzeo '22 Jack Gigante '22
Varsity Neil Bunce '21 Noah Schickler '21
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Lachlain Mc Granahan '20 [1-6, 13]
Stephan Baker '22 [7-12]		 Adam Kaplan '21 [1-12]
Hannah Bast '21 [13]
Raiders Javier Garcon '21 [1-4]
Liam O'Keefe '21 [5-13]		 Louis La Fontisse '21 [1-8]
Claire Holzman '21 [9-13]
Riverview High School Riverview High School Mark Brunsvold '19 [1-13] Kay Brumsvold '21 [1-8]
Terra Ehrhart '20 [9-13]
Varsity Lillian Myers '19 [1-13] Terra Ehrhart '20 [1-8]
Kay Brumsvold '21 [9-13]
Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Matthew King '20 [1-8]
Thommi Gritt '22 [9-13]		 Nick Powers '21 [1-8]
Matthew King '20 [9-13]
Sailors Will Murray '20 Dan Keim '19
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Guthrie Braun '22 Thomas Cura '21
Chargers Elizabeth Shanahan '19 [1, 9-12]
Heather Kerns '20 [2-8, 13]		 Lily Schneider '19 [1]
Elizabeth Shanahan '19 [2-8]
Karlei Kongsiri '19 [9-12]
Zachery Ofenloch '19 [13]
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Libby Redmond '20 [1-4, 9-12]
Connor Boland '21 [5-8, 13]		 Isa Duplessis '20 [1-8]
Emma Asturias '20 [9-12]
Daniel Neville '21 [13]
Raiders Bobby Rielly '21 [1, 7-13]
Joey Meagher '20 [2-6]		 Joey Meagher '20 [1, 13]
Bobby Rielly '21 [2-6]
Emma Asturias '20 [7-8]
Kenna Reed '20 [9-12]
The Walker School The Walker School Carlyn Blauvelt '19 Erika Kaczynski '20
Wolverines Evie Blauvelt '21 [1-13] Grayson Berrier '21 [1, 11-12]
Katrin Surkan '21 [2-10, 13]
Wando High School Wando High School Zack Carvajal '22 Lauren Creech '19
Wando Warriors William Hussey '22 [1-8]
Heyward Main '19 [9-13]		 Ian Bosse '21 [1-8]
Addison Terry '19 [9-13]

Conditions — 04/20/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 49%  ·  Pressure 1015.6 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 67°F
Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
16.7 kn
avg  ·  max 19.1 kn
Gusts to 33.0 kn
From WNW (288°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover6% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity49% Pressure1015.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 20 kn · NW 6 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Shorecrest Prep: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.07 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.12
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.04 ± 0.08)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Shorecrest Prep by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Shorecrest Prep, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →