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North Points 3

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Myers Park High School Myers Park High School Mustangs 45 32 77
2 Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny 39 40 79
3 Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Varsity 35 74 109
4 Wando High School Wando High School Wando Warriors 44 93 137
5 Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity 45 111 156
6 Hough High School Hough High School Hough High School 93 65 158
7 Lake Norman High School Lake Norman High School Wildcats 97 63 160
8 James Island Charter High School James Island Charter High School Varsity 125 44 169
9 Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Varsity 126 53 179
10 John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Hoggard 99 96 195
11 The Walker School The Walker School Wolverines 55 142 197
12 John Paul II (SC) John Paul II (SC) John Paul II (SC) 104 103 207
13 Oceanside Collegiate Academy Oceanside Collegiate Academy Landsharks 127 100 227
14 Porter-Gaud School Porter-Gaud School Varsity 105 125 230
15 Academic Magnet High School Academic Magnet High School Raptors A 148 121 269
16 Richmond Hill Sailing Richmond Hill Sailing Varsity 125 159 284
17 North Atlanta High School North Atlanta High School Warriors 143 164 307
18 Ashley Hall Ashley Hall Panthers 157 158 315
19 Southlake Christian Academy Southlake Christian Academy Southlake 192 197 389
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Varsity 2 5 3 5 4 1 3 6 3 3 35 Garrett Mergenthaler '19 [1-10]
Alli Volk '21 [1-6, 9-10]
Hayden Sidak '21 [7-8]
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny 3 6 2 6 6 7 1 5 1 2 39 William Weinbecker '21
Maggie Mclauchlin '21
Wando High School Wando High School Wando Warriors 6 3 4 7 10 4 2 1 6 1 44 Zack Carvajal '22 [1-10]
Addison Terry '19 [1-6]
Laura Johnston '21 [7-10]
Myers Park High School Myers Park High School Mustangs 1 1 7 4 5 8 5 2 8 4 45 Adam Larson '19 [1-10]
Kenny Corsig '19 [1-2]
Brad Duniec '19 [3-6]
Margaret Bolt '20 [7-10]
Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity 15 7 1 1 1 2 4 4 2 8 45 Benjamin Smith '22 [1-10]
David Novak '20 [1-2]
Kellen Donlon '22 [3-10]
The Walker School The Walker School Wolverines 4 2 9 9 2 3 13 3 4 6 55 Evie Blauvelt '21
Grayson Berrier '21
Hough High School Hough High School Hough High School 7 12 6 8 3 15 14 10 7 11 93 Sully O'Donnell '21 [1-10]
Luca Van Der Schoot '22 [1-2]
Lucas Porter '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Holladay Crook '22 [5-6, 9-10]
Lake Norman High School Lake Norman High School Wildcats 8 11 14 16 7 5 6 11 12 7 97 Evan Chenard '20 [1-10]
Annie Thompson '20 [1-6]
Joe Nash '20 [7-10]
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Hoggard 14 8 5 3 9 BKD 17 8 9 17 99 Jacob Usher '21 [1-10]
Bella Cankurtaran '20 [1-8]
Dylan Johnson '20 [9-10]
John Paul II (SC) John Paul II (SC) John Paul II (SC) 5 10 8 2 11 6 18 18 13 13 104 Thomas Mazzeo '22 [1-10]
Andrew Todesco '22 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Luke Burton '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Porter-Gaud School Porter-Gaud School Varsity 11 14 13 10 13 10 7 7 15 5 105 Neil Walters '20 [1-10]
King Bland '19 [1-4, 7-10]
Lewis Bragg '21 [5-6]
Richmond Hill Sailing Richmond Hill Sailing Varsity 10 17 16 18 14 13 10 12 5 10 125 Cohen Hughes '19 [1-10]
Jonah Daniels '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Sarah Cunningham '20 [3-4, 7-8]
James Island Charter High School James Island Charter High School Varsity 16 4 11 12 17 12 12 13 14 14 125 Carson Shaw '23 [1-6]
Megan Fetterley '19 [7-10]
Camdyn Williams '21 [1-6]
Carson Shaw '23 [7-10]
Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Varsity 9 16 12 14 18 11 11 9 17 9 126 Ian Hoogenboom '20
Abbie Pollitzer '21
Oceanside Collegiate Academy Oceanside Collegiate Academy Landsharks 12 13 15 15 8 14 8 15 11 16 127 Gavin Parker '22
Charlton Barttlett '22
North Atlanta High School North Atlanta High School Warriors 13 9 17 13 12 17 9 17 18 18 143 Ethan Staats '20 [1-10]
Nora Rosenfeld '21 [1-2]
Hansen Aluri '22 [3-4]
Harrison Marx '20 [5-10]
Academic Magnet High School Academic Magnet High School Raptors A DNF 15 BKD 11 15 18 16 16 10 12 148 Manning Unger '21
Cassie Brisbin '20
Ashley Hall Ashley Hall Panthers DNF 18 10 17 16 16 15 14 16 15 157 Julianna Skoglund '19
Andrea Melnik '23
Southlake Christian Academy Southlake Christian Academy Southlake DNF 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 DNF 192 John Polek '22 [1-10]
Tucker Pugh '21 [1-6]
Kamden Caccamise '22 [7-10]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Myers Park High School Myers Park High School Mustangs 1 2 8 6 3 2 4 1 1 4 32 Kenny Corsig '19 [1-10]
Alex Bergin '19 [1-6]
Emsley Jones '22 [7-10]
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny 7 1 3 3 6 1 3 2 13 1 40 Reedy Monahan '20 [1-10]
Bridget Monahan '22 [1-6]
Patrick Patangan '20 [7-10]
James Island Charter High School James Island Charter High School Varsity 3 10 7 1 1 4 5 4 4 5 44 Mason Baird '23 [1-10]
Jack Mckenzie '23 [1-6, 9-10]
Britton Durst '19 [7-8]
Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Varsity 10 5 5 7 5 6 1 6 2 6 53 Clay Myers '21
Thomas Gnann '20
Lake Norman High School Lake Norman High School Wildcats 8 9 6 4 2 3 6 12 3 10 63 Chris Hartman '20 [1-2, 7-10]
Tyler Bland '21 [3-6]
Tyler Bland '21 [1-2, 9-10]
Chris Hartman '20 [3-6]
Bobby Missert '20 [7-8]
Hough High School Hough High School Hough High School 5 4 2 2 9 8 9 14 5 7 65 Evan West '22 [1-10]
Holladay Crook '22 [1-2]
Luca Van Der Schoot '22 [3-8]
Lucas Porter '21 [9-10]
Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Varsity 6 6 12 5 4 5 8 9 8 11 74 Josh Mergenthaler '21 [1-10]
Maddie Nusbaum '21 [1-8]
Jesse Singh '20 [9-10]
Wando High School Wando High School Wando Warriors 11 3 1 8 11 DSQ DSQ 5 12 2 93 William Hussey '22 [1-10]
Robert Silcox '21 [1-2, 5-8]
Laura Johnston '21 [3-4]
Addison Terry '19 [9-10]
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Hoggard 4 11 14 10 10 12 7 8 7 13 96 Ella Deschamps '21 [1-10]
Dylan Johnson '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Nick Gallo '21 [3-4, 7-10]
Oceanside Collegiate Academy Oceanside Collegiate Academy Landsharks DSQ 12 4 9 8 7 15 3 14 8 100 Ashton Loring '22
Sean Kittrell '21
John Paul II (SC) John Paul II (SC) John Paul II (SC) 2 14 10 12 7 11 14 13 11 9 103 Neil Bunce '21 [1-10]
Alex Devonshire '22 [1-4, 7-8]
Noah Schickler '21 [5-6, 9-10]
Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity 9 8 13 15 12 9 13 10 10 12 111 David Novak '20 [1-10]
Gavin Bahner '22 [1-4, 7-8]
Kate Smith '19 [5-6, 9-10]
Academic Magnet High School Academic Magnet High School Raptors A 12 13 15 13 13 10 11 7 9 18 121 Caelan Paquette '20 [1-10]
Carrie Metts '19 [1-2, 5-8]
Sara Beall '22 [3-4, 9-10]
Porter-Gaud School Porter-Gaud School Varsity 13 7 9 11 14 14 10 15 16 16 125 Connor Marion '20 [1-4, 7-10]
Graham Cosby '23 [5-6]
Edwin Mcalister '22 [1-8]
Lewis Bragg '21 [9-10]
The Walker School The Walker School Wolverines DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 2 11 6 3 142 Erika Kaczynski '20 [1-6]
Carlyn Blauvelt '19 [7-10]
Katrin Surkan '21 [1-6]
Erika Kaczynski '20 [7-10]
Ashley Hall Ashley Hall Panthers 16 17 16 14 17 15 12 DSQ 17 14 158 Lily Hudson '23
Pearce Buxton '20
Richmond Hill Sailing Richmond Hill Sailing Varsity 14 15 17 DNF 16 13 16 16 15 17 159 Joseph Lane '19 [1-10]
Elle Jacobsson '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Patricia George '20 [3-4, 7-8]
North Atlanta High School North Atlanta High School Warriors 15 16 11 DNF 15 16 18 DNF 18 15 164 Nora Rosenfeld '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Viren Aluri '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Carter Law '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Graham Lee '20 [3-4, 7-10]
Southlake Christian Academy Southlake Christian Academy Southlake DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 17 DNF DNS DNS 197 Jack Crofoot '22
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.150+0.15
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Academic Magnet High SchoolAcademic Magnet High School Raptors A84528452404010104913491399
Ashley HallAshley Hall Panthers842384231212667280728011
Beaufort High SchoolBeaufort High School Varsity40401010585358539922
Bishop Kenny High School - FLBishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny121266728072801185338533
Cape Fear AcademyCape Fear Academy CFA Varsity10105853585399225555
Hough High SchoolHough High School Hough High School6672807280118533853333
James Island Charter High SchoolJames Island Charter High School Varsity585358539922555588
John T. Hoggard High SchoolJohn T. Hoggard High School Hoggard99225555881111
John Paul II (SC)John Paul II (SC) John Paul II (SC)7280728011853385333377
Lake Norman High SchoolLake Norman High School Wildcats1185338533337744
Myers Park High SchoolMyers Park High School Mustangs22555588111155
North Atlanta High SchoolNorth Atlanta High School Warriors8533853333774484528452
Oceanside Collegiate AcademyOceanside Collegiate Academy Landsharks55558811115584238423
Pine Lake PrepPine Lake Prep Varsity337744845284524040
Porter-Gaud SchoolPorter-Gaud School Varsity88111155842384231212
Richmond Hill SailingRichmond Hill Sailing Varsity77448452845240401010
Southlake Christian AcademySouthlake Christian Academy Southlake11115584238423121266
The Walker SchoolThe Walker School Wolverines44845284524040101049134913
Wando High SchoolWando High School Wando Warriors558423842312126672807280

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Academic Magnet High SchoolAcademic Magnet High School Raptors A842384231212667280728011
Ashley HallAshley Hall Panthers40401010585358539922
Beaufort High SchoolBeaufort High School Varsity121266728072801185338533
Bishop Kenny High School - FLBishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny10105853585399225555
Cape Fear AcademyCape Fear Academy CFA Varsity6672807280118533853333
Hough High SchoolHough High School Hough High School585358539922555588
James Island Charter High SchoolJames Island Charter High School Varsity7280728011853385333377
John T. Hoggard High SchoolJohn T. Hoggard High School Hoggard1185338533337744
John Paul II (SC)John Paul II (SC) John Paul II (SC)99225555881111
Lake Norman High SchoolLake Norman High School Wildcats22555588111155
Myers Park High SchoolMyers Park High School Mustangs8533853333774484528452
North Atlanta High SchoolNorth Atlanta High School Warriors55558811115584238423
Oceanside Collegiate AcademyOceanside Collegiate Academy Landsharks337744845284524040
Pine Lake PrepPine Lake Prep Varsity88111155842384231212
Porter-Gaud SchoolPorter-Gaud School Varsity77448452845240401010
Richmond Hill SailingRichmond Hill Sailing Varsity11115584238423121266
Southlake Christian AcademySouthlake Christian Academy Southlake44845284524040101049134913
The Walker SchoolThe Walker School Wolverines558423842312126672807280
Wando High SchoolWando High School Wando Warriors84528452404010104913491399
School / Team SkipperCrew
Academic Magnet High School Academic Magnet High School Manning Unger '21 Cassie Brisbin '20
Raptors A Caelan Paquette '20 [1-10] Carrie Metts '19 [1-2, 5-8]
Sara Beall '22 [3-4, 9-10]
Ashley Hall Ashley Hall Julianna Skoglund '19 Andrea Melnik '23
Panthers Lily Hudson '23 Pearce Buxton '20
Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Ian Hoogenboom '20 Abbie Pollitzer '21
Varsity Clay Myers '21 Thomas Gnann '20
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny High School - FL William Weinbecker '21 Maggie Mclauchlin '21
Bishop Kenny Reedy Monahan '20 [1-10] Bridget Monahan '22 [1-6]
Patrick Patangan '20 [7-10]
Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy Benjamin Smith '22 [1-10] David Novak '20 [1-2]
Kellen Donlon '22 [3-10]
CFA Varsity David Novak '20 [1-10] Gavin Bahner '22 [1-4, 7-8]
Kate Smith '19 [5-6, 9-10]
Hough High School Hough High School Sully O'Donnell '21 [1-10] Luca Van Der Schoot '22 [1-2]
Lucas Porter '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Holladay Crook '22 [5-6, 9-10]
Hough High School Evan West '22 [1-10] Holladay Crook '22 [1-2]
Luca Van Der Schoot '22 [3-8]
Lucas Porter '21 [9-10]
James Island Charter High School James Island Charter High School Carson Shaw '23 [1-6]
Megan Fetterley '19 [7-10]		 Camdyn Williams '21 [1-6]
Carson Shaw '23 [7-10]
Varsity Mason Baird '23 [1-10] Jack Mckenzie '23 [1-6, 9-10]
Britton Durst '19 [7-8]
John Paul II (SC) John Paul II (SC) Thomas Mazzeo '22 [1-10] Andrew Todesco '22 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Luke Burton '22 [3-4, 7-8]
John Paul II (SC) Neil Bunce '21 [1-10] Alex Devonshire '22 [1-4, 7-8]
Noah Schickler '21 [5-6, 9-10]
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Jacob Usher '21 [1-10] Bella Cankurtaran '20 [1-8]
Dylan Johnson '20 [9-10]
Hoggard Ella Deschamps '21 [1-10] Dylan Johnson '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Nick Gallo '21 [3-4, 7-10]
Lake Norman High School Lake Norman High School Evan Chenard '20 [1-10] Annie Thompson '20 [1-6]
Joe Nash '20 [7-10]
Wildcats Chris Hartman '20 [1-2, 7-10]
Tyler Bland '21 [3-6]		 Tyler Bland '21 [1-2, 9-10]
Chris Hartman '20 [3-6]
Bobby Missert '20 [7-8]
Myers Park High School Myers Park High School Adam Larson '19 [1-10] Kenny Corsig '19 [1-2]
Brad Duniec '19 [3-6]
Margaret Bolt '20 [7-10]
Mustangs Kenny Corsig '19 [1-10] Alex Bergin '19 [1-6]
Emsley Jones '22 [7-10]
North Atlanta High School North Atlanta High School Ethan Staats '20 [1-10] Nora Rosenfeld '21 [1-2]
Hansen Aluri '22 [3-4]
Harrison Marx '20 [5-10]
Warriors Nora Rosenfeld '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Viren Aluri '21 [3-4, 7-8]		 Carter Law '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Graham Lee '20 [3-4, 7-10]
Oceanside Collegiate Academy Oceanside Collegiate Academy Gavin Parker '22 Charlton Barttlett '22
Landsharks Ashton Loring '22 Sean Kittrell '21
Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Garrett Mergenthaler '19 [1-10] Alli Volk '21 [1-6, 9-10]
Hayden Sidak '21 [7-8]
Varsity Josh Mergenthaler '21 [1-10] Maddie Nusbaum '21 [1-8]
Jesse Singh '20 [9-10]
Porter-Gaud School Porter-Gaud School Neil Walters '20 [1-10] King Bland '19 [1-4, 7-10]
Lewis Bragg '21 [5-6]
Varsity Connor Marion '20 [1-4, 7-10]
Graham Cosby '23 [5-6]		 Edwin Mcalister '22 [1-8]
Lewis Bragg '21 [9-10]
Richmond Hill Sailing Richmond Hill Sailing Cohen Hughes '19 [1-10] Jonah Daniels '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Sarah Cunningham '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Varsity Joseph Lane '19 [1-10] Elle Jacobsson '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Patricia George '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Southlake Christian Academy Southlake Christian Academy John Polek '22 [1-10] Tucker Pugh '21 [1-6]
Kamden Caccamise '22 [7-10]
Southlake Jack Crofoot '22 No Show
The Walker School The Walker School Evie Blauvelt '21 Grayson Berrier '21
Wolverines Erika Kaczynski '20 [1-6]
Carlyn Blauvelt '19 [7-10]		 Katrin Surkan '21 [1-6]
Erika Kaczynski '20 [7-10]
Wando High School Wando High School Zack Carvajal '22 [1-10] Addison Terry '19 [1-6]
Laura Johnston '21 [7-10]
Wando Warriors William Hussey '22 [1-10] Robert Silcox '21 [1-2, 5-8]
Laura Johnston '21 [3-4]
Addison Terry '19 [9-10]

Conditions — 10/20/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 88%  ·  Pressure 1011.9 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 60°F
Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.7 kn
avg  ·  max 6.6 kn
Gusts to 15.6 kn
From WSW (258°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover88% Sunshine3.3 hrs Humidity88% Pressure1011.9 hPa Rain0.17 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 8 kn · N 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Pine Lake Prep: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.01 ± 0.08)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Pine Lake Prep by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Pine Lake Prep, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →