| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Antilles School | Hurricanes | 9–1 |
| 2 |  |
Ransom Everglades School | Raiders | 7–3 |
| 3 |  |
Immaculata La Salle High School | Royal Lions | 6–4 |
| 4 |  |
H. B. Plant High School | Panthers | 6–4 |
| 5 |  |
St. Thomas Aquinas High School | Raiders | 3–4 |
| 6 |  |
Shorecrest Preparatory School | Chargers | 2–5 |
| 7 |  |
Bishop Kenny High School - FL | Bishop Kenny | 1–6 |
| 8 |  |
Wando High School | Wando Warriors | 0–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 5,898 team race matches sailed before 2019-04-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 28 of 34 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.433 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.22 ± 0.39: a typical event, more orderly than 57% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Immaculata La Salle High School | 5.76 | 7.31 | 6–4 | 3.6 | +1.55 | 2.1 | 8% |
| 1 | Antilles School | 8.18 | 9.24 | 9–1 | 8.1 | +1.06 | 0.5 | 38% |
| 4 | H. B. Plant High School | 6.29 | 7.11 | 6–4 | 4.8 | +0.82 | 0.6 | 30% |
| 2 | Ransom Everglades School | 7.73 | 7.48 | 7–3 | 7.3 | −0.25 | 0.0 | 75% |
| 6 | Shorecrest Preparatory School | 5.59 | 4.79 | 2–5 | 2.8 | −0.80 | 0.3 | 87% |
| 5 | St. Thomas Aquinas High School | 6.73 | 5.63 | 3–4 | 4.2 | −1.10 | 0.7 | 93% |
| 7 | Bishop Kenny High School - FL | 5.01 | 3.35 | 1–6 | 2.3 | −1.66 | 1.1 | 96% |
| 8 | Wando High School | 3.69 | 0.69 | 0–7 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.4 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Miranda | Immaculata La Salle High School | 0.44 | 1.99 | 6–4 | 3.6 | +1.55 | 2.1 | 8% |
| Sean Toro | H. B. Plant High School | 1.49 | 2.31 | 6–4 | 4.8 | +0.82 | 0.6 | 30% |
| Connor Boland | St. Thomas Aquinas High School | 2.13 | 1.04 | 3–4 | 4.2 | −1.10 | 0.7 | 93% |
| Reedy Monahan | Bishop Kenny High School - FL | 1.69 | 0.02 | 1–6 | 2.3 | −1.66 | 1.1 | 96% |
| Zack Carvajal | Wando High School | 1.72 | -1.28 | 0–7 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.4 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hurricanes | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Chargers | 2-3-6 |
| 2 | |
Panthers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bishop Kenny | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Royal Lions | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wando Warriors | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Chargers | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Royal Lions | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 1-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Bishop Kenny | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wando Warriors | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Raiders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Royal Lions | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Chargers | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bishop Kenny | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Panthers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wando Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Royal Lions | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bishop Kenny | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Panthers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Chargers | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wando Warriors | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Royal Lions | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bishop Kenny | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Hurricanes | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 1-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Chargers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Wando Warriors | 2-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Panthers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bishop Kenny | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Royal Lions | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Chargers | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wando Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Chargers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bishop Kenny | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Royal Lions | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wando Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Royal Lions | 3-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Panthers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 1-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Panthers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Royal Lions | 2-3-6 |
| 32 | |
Hurricanes | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Royal Lions | 3-4-6 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
