| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Bishop Kenny High School - FL | Bishop Kenny | 3–1 |
| 2 |  |
James Island Charter High School | Varsity | 3–1 |
| 3 |  |
Wando High School | Wando Warriors | 2–2 |
| 4 |  |
Evanston Township HS | Wildkits | 1–3 |
| 5 |  |
Loyola Academy | Ramblers | 1–3 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,961 team race matches sailed before 2020-02-29, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 8 of 10 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.591 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.63 ± 0.69: a typical event, more orderly than 14% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | James Island Charter High School | 2.85 | 4.56 | 3–1 | 2.0 | +1.70 | 0.9 | 29% |
| 5 | Loyola Academy | 1.32 | 1.68 | 1–3 | 0.8 | +0.37 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 4 | Evanston Township HS | 1.66 | 1.40 | 1–3 | 1.1 | −0.27 | 0.0 | 79% |
| 1 | Bishop Kenny High School - FL | 4.41 | 3.99 | 3–1 | 3.2 | −0.42 | 0.0 | 83% |
| 3 | Wando High School | 3.96 | 2.63 | 2–2 | 2.8 | −1.33 | 0.6 | 94% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Shaw | James Island Charter High School | 1.18 | 2.88 | 3–1 | 2.0 | +1.70 | 0.9 | 29% |
| Jack Mckenzie | James Island Charter High School | 0.70 | 2.40 | 3–1 | 2.0 | +1.70 | 0.9 | 29% |
| Angelina Simon | Loyola Academy | 0.40 | 0.77 | 1–3 | 0.8 | +0.37 | 0.0 | 62% |
| Ulysses Hennelly | Evanston Township HS | 1.08 | 0.81 | 1–3 | 1.1 | −0.27 | 0.0 | 79% |
| Reedy Monahan | Bishop Kenny High School - FL | 2.02 | 1.60 | 3–1 | 3.2 | −0.42 | 0.0 | 83% |
| Zack Carvajal | Wando High School | 1.91 | 0.59 | 2–2 | 2.8 | −1.33 | 0.6 | 94% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bishop Kenny | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wildkits | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Ramblers | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Bishop Kenny | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Wando Warriors | 1-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 DNF | def. | |
Wildkits | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Ramblers | 1-3-6 DNF | def. | |
Bishop Kenny | 2-4-5 DNF,DNF |
| 6 | |
Wando Warriors | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wildkits | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Bishop Kenny | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Wildkits | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Varsity | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Wando Warriors | 2-3-6 |
| 10 | |
Wando Warriors | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Bishop Kenny High School - FL | Bishop Kenny | Charlie Lawrence '22 Reedy Monahan '20 William Weinbecker '21 |
No Show Tia Schoening '22 Maggie Mclauchlin '21 |
|
James Island Charter High School | Varsity | Carson Shaw '22 Jack Mckenzie '22 Mason Baird '22 |
Camdyn Williams '21 William Rawlings '22 Owen Mckenzie '23 |
|
Wando High School | Wando Warriors | Robert Silcox '21 William Hussey '22 Zack Carvajal '22 |
Ian Bosse '21 Tyler Payzant '21 Carter Durst '22 |
|
Evanston Township HS | Wildkits | Hannah Tracey '22 Mary Castellini '21 Quinn Stevans '23 Ulysses Hennelly '20 |
Quinn Stevans '23 Tim Mooney '21 Tyler Knohl '22 Hannah Tracey '22 |
|
Loyola Academy | Ramblers | Angelina Simon '20 Grace Beard '21 Santiago Echevarria '22 |
Micheal Barker '20 Eleanor Brady '22 Fiona Naughton '22 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
