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SAISA South Points 2 JV 2017

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Panthers 15 12 27
2 Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 6 25 31
3 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 32 14 46
4 Braden River High School Braden River High School Pirates 34 31 65
5 Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Sailors 30 53 83
6 Unregistered-SAISA Unregistered-SAISA Unregistered-SAISA 34 50 84
7 Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 44 41 85
8 Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 48 40 88
9 Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Varsity 46 46 92
10 Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 52 40 92
11 MOA/Westwood High School MOA/Westwood High School Panthers 68 55 123
12 South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 66 78 144
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 Heidi Hicks '21
Zuri Patel '20
Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Panthers 2 2 2 5 2 2 15 Noah Fischer '19
Michael Gabe '18
Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Sailors 4 4 6 7 4 5 30 Dan Keim '19
Zeban Kaiser '20
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 5 6 3 2 OCS 3 32 Joey Meagher '20
Isa Duplessis '20
Braden River High School Braden River High School Pirates 3 10 7 4 6 4 34 Camden Sullivan '21
Jack Soodek '20
Unregistered-SAISA Unregistered-SAISA Unregistered-SAISA 6 5 9 3 3 8 34 Leah Harper '18 [1]
Matthew Smith '19 [2-5]
No Show [6]
Matthew Smith '19 [1]
Leah Harper '18 [2]
Ruth Pearl '20 [3]
Sam Pearl '19 [4-5]
No Show [6]
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 9 3 8 8 7 9 44 Jacob Wolfe '21
Gabriel Vianna '21
Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Varsity 7 9 5 DNS 5 7 46 Erik Volk '18
Grace Pfaelzer '21
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 8 8 11 6 9 6 48 Sam Legaspi '21 [1-2]
Mateo Puech '18 [3-6]
Matthew Bueres '21 [1-2]
Jake Charron '21 [3-6]
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 10 7 4 OCS 8 10 52 Frederick Debiase '20
Sophia Licata '18
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 12 12 12 9 10 11 66 Yazmeen Simpson '19 [1-4]
No Show [5-6]
Ryan Ince '21 [1-4]
No Show [5-6]
MOA/Westwood High School MOA/Westwood High School Panthers 11 11 10 10 DNS DNS 68 Heriberto Lara-Mijares '20
Esbeydy Dumas '20
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Panthers 4 2 1 2 2 1 12 Bella Casaretto '22
Jack Bilello '18
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 1 1 5 3 1 3 14 Cameron Swain '18 [1-4]
Garrett Dixon '21 [5-6]
Ivan Levkovsky '20 [1-4]
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 2 3 OCS 1 4 2 25 Sidney Jones '21
Thomas Cura '21
Braden River High School Braden River High School Pirates 8 4 2 4 5 8 31 Mason Sullivan '22
Connor Snead '22
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 3 8 8 11 3 7 40 Coby Flannery '21
Cesar Yudin '20
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 5 10 7 5 7 6 40 Bradley Reimer '20
Matthew Robinson '19
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 10 5 6 8 8 4 41 Lucas Vianna '21 [1-6]
Zachary Vuong '19 [1-4]
Gwen Howland '19 [5-6]
Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Varsity 7 9 3 9 9 9 46 Kyle Funderburk '20
Savannah Fondrk '18
Unregistered-SAISA Unregistered-SAISA Unregistered-SAISA 11 DNS 9 6 6 5 50 Ruth Pearl '20 [1]
Sam Pearl '19 [2]
Leah Harper '18 [3-4]
No Show [5-6]
Sam Pearl '19 [1, 3]
Ruth Pearl '20 [2, 4]
No Show [5-6]
Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Sailors 6 7 DNS 7 10 10 53 Luke King '21
Kailin Foster '20
MOA/Westwood High School MOA/Westwood High School Panthers 9 6 4 10 DNS DNS 55 No Show
Nicholas Stange '20
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 78 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Braden River High SchoolBraden River High School Pirates252525252525
Dunedin High SchoolDunedin High School Varsity303030303030
Gulliver Preparatory SchoolGulliver Preparatory School Raiders242424242424
Jensen Beach High SchoolJensen Beach High School Falcons202020202020
MOA/Westwood High SchoolMOA/Westwood High School Panthers313131313131
Pine Crest SchoolPine Crest School Panthers232323232323
Ransom Everglades SchoolRansom Everglades School Raiders282828282828
St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders222222222222
Sarasota High SchoolSarasota High School Sailors292929292929
Shorecrest Preparatory SchoolShorecrest Preparatory School Chargers262626262626
South Fork High SchoolSouth Fork High School SF BULLDOGS212121212121
Unregistered-SAISAUnregistered-SAISA Unregistered-SAISA272727272727

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Braden River High SchoolBraden River High School Pirates252525252525
Dunedin High SchoolDunedin High School Varsity303030303030
Gulliver Preparatory SchoolGulliver Preparatory School Raiders242424242424
Jensen Beach High SchoolJensen Beach High School Falcons202020202020
MOA/Westwood High SchoolMOA/Westwood High School Panthers313131313131
Pine Crest SchoolPine Crest School Panthers232323232323
Ransom Everglades SchoolRansom Everglades School Raiders282828282828
St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders222222222222
Sarasota High SchoolSarasota High School Sailors292929292929
Shorecrest Preparatory SchoolShorecrest Preparatory School Chargers262626262626
South Fork High SchoolSouth Fork High School SF BULLDOGS212121212121
Unregistered-SAISAUnregistered-SAISA Unregistered-SAISA272727272727
School / Team SkipperCrew
Braden River High School Braden River High School Camden Sullivan '21 Jack Soodek '20
Pirates Mason Sullivan '22 Connor Snead '22
Dunedin High School Dunedin High School Erik Volk '18 Grace Pfaelzer '21
Varsity Kyle Funderburk '20 Savannah Fondrk '18
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Sam Legaspi '21 [1-2]
Mateo Puech '18 [3-6]		 Matthew Bueres '21 [1-2]
Jake Charron '21 [3-6]
Raiders Bradley Reimer '20 Matthew Robinson '19
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Frederick Debiase '20 Sophia Licata '18
Falcons Coby Flannery '21 Cesar Yudin '20
MOA/Westwood High School MOA/Westwood High School Heriberto Lara-Mijares '20 Esbeydy Dumas '20
Panthers No Show Nicholas Stange '20
Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Noah Fischer '19 Michael Gabe '18
Panthers Bella Casaretto '22 Jack Bilello '18
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Jacob Wolfe '21 Gabriel Vianna '21
Raiders Lucas Vianna '21 [1-6] Zachary Vuong '19 [1-4]
Gwen Howland '19 [5-6]
Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Dan Keim '19 Zeban Kaiser '20
Sailors Luke King '21 Kailin Foster '20
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Heidi Hicks '21 Zuri Patel '20
Chargers Sidney Jones '21 Thomas Cura '21
South Fork High School South Fork High School Yazmeen Simpson '19 [1-4]
No Show [5-6]		 Ryan Ince '21 [1-4]
No Show [5-6]
SF BULLDOGS No Show No Show
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Joey Meagher '20 Isa Duplessis '20
Raiders Cameron Swain '18 [1-4]
Garrett Dixon '21 [5-6]		 Ivan Levkovsky '20 [1-4]
Unregistered-SAISA Unregistered-SAISA Leah Harper '18 [1]
Matthew Smith '19 [2-5]
No Show [6]		 Matthew Smith '19 [1]
Leah Harper '18 [2]
Ruth Pearl '20 [3]
Sam Pearl '19 [4-5]
No Show [6]
Unregistered-SAISA Ruth Pearl '20 [1]
Sam Pearl '19 [2]
Leah Harper '18 [3-4]
No Show [5-6]		 Sam Pearl '19 [1, 3]
Ruth Pearl '20 [2, 4]
No Show [5-6]

Conditions — 10/28/2017 (8am–6pm)

🌧️Moderate rain
Humidity 85%  ·  Pressure 1010.0 hPa

Temperature

77°F
↑ 79°F   ↓ 75°F
Feels like 81°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.1 kn
avg  ·  max 11.9 kn
Gusts to 22.7 kn
From ESE (118°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine2.3 hrs Humidity85% Pressure1010.0 hPa Rain0.80 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Saint Thomas Aquinas: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.13)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.22
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.49 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Saint Thomas Aquinas by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Saint Thomas Aquinas, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →