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SAISA South Points 1 JV

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 6 13 19
2 Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 19 14 33
3 Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 14 23 37
4 Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 29 30 59
5 Braden River High School Braden River High School Braden River JV 28 39 67
6 Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Sailors 41 31 72
7 Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves 41 35 76
8 South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 43 41 84
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 Heidi Hicks '21
Sidney Jones '21
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 2 2 3 2 3 2 14 Chris Purcell '21 [1-6]
Jake Charron '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Karen Liberman '20 [3-4]
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 6 3 2 3 2 3 19 Adam Kaplan '21
Lucas Vianna '21
Braden River High School Braden River High School Braden River JV 4 4 6 4 6 4 28 Jack Soodek '20
Camden Sullivan '21
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 3 5 4 5 7 5 29 Frederick Debiase '20
Dina Coletti '20
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves 5 7 DNF 8 5 7 41 Alexander Barr '19
Ayla Weisberg '22
Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Sailors DNS DNF 7 6 4 6 41 No Show [1-2]
Dan Keim '19 [3-6]
No Show [1-2]
Luke Johnson '19 [3-6]
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS DNF 6 5 7 8 8 43 Katelyn Herter '20 [1, 3-6]
Zuzanna Barska '22 [2]
Zuzanna Barska '22 [1, 3-6]
Katelyn Herter '20 [2]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 2 1 2 2 4 2 13 Karlei Kongsiri '19
Nolan Pollack '20
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 1 2 1 1 6 3 14 Jacob Wolfe '21 [1-6]
Gabriel Vianna '21 [1-4]
Gwen Howland '19 [5-6]
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders DNF 4 5 3 1 1 23 Bradley Reimer '20
Matthew Bueres '21
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 3 5 4 4 7 7 30 Coby Flannery '21 [1-6]
Sophia Licata '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Christopher Volk '18 [3-4]
Sarasota High School Sarasota High School Sailors 5 6 6 5 3 6 31 Luke King '21
Kailin Foster '20
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves 4 3 DNF DNF 5 5 35 Raquel Shulman '22
Liz Cloninger '22
Braden River High School Braden River High School Braden River JV DNF DNF DNF 6 2 4 39 Mason Sullivan '22
Connor Snead '22
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 6 DNF 3 7 8 8 41 Yazmeen Simpson '19
Ryan Ince '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Braden River High SchoolBraden River High School Braden River JV323232323232
Gulliver Preparatory SchoolGulliver Preparatory School Raiders282828282828
Jensen Beach High SchoolJensen Beach High School Falcons353535353535
Oxbridge AcademyOxbridge Academy ThunderWolves333333333333
Ransom Everglades SchoolRansom Everglades School Raiders303030303030
Sarasota High SchoolSarasota High School Sailors313131313131
Shorecrest Preparatory SchoolShorecrest Preparatory School Chargers292929292929
South Fork High SchoolSouth Fork High School SF BULLDOGS343434343434

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Braden River High SchoolBraden River High School Braden River JV323232323232
Gulliver Preparatory SchoolGulliver Preparatory School Raiders282828282828
Jensen Beach High SchoolJensen Beach High School Falcons353535353535
Oxbridge AcademyOxbridge Academy ThunderWolves333333333333
Ransom Everglades SchoolRansom Everglades School Raiders303030303030
Sarasota High SchoolSarasota High School Sailors313131313131
Shorecrest Preparatory SchoolShorecrest Preparatory School Chargers292929292929
South Fork High SchoolSouth Fork High School SF BULLDOGS343434343434
School / Team SkipperCrew
Braden River High School Braden River High School Jack Soodek '20 Camden Sullivan '21
Braden River JV Mason Sullivan '22 Connor Snead '22
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Chris Purcell '21 [1-6] Jake Charron '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Karen Liberman '20 [3-4]
Raiders Bradley Reimer '20 Matthew Bueres '21
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Frederick Debiase '20 Dina Coletti '20
Falcons Coby Flannery '21 [1-6] Sophia Licata '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Christopher Volk '18 [3-4]
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy Alexander Barr '19 Ayla Weisberg '22
ThunderWolves Raquel Shulman '22 Liz Cloninger '22
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Adam Kaplan '21 Lucas Vianna '21
Raiders Jacob Wolfe '21 [1-6] Gabriel Vianna '21 [1-4]
Gwen Howland '19 [5-6]
Sarasota High School Sarasota High School No Show [1-2]
Dan Keim '19 [3-6]		 No Show [1-2]
Luke Johnson '19 [3-6]
Sailors Luke King '21 Kailin Foster '20
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Heidi Hicks '21 Sidney Jones '21
Chargers Karlei Kongsiri '19 Nolan Pollack '20
South Fork High School South Fork High School Katelyn Herter '20 [1, 3-6]
Zuzanna Barska '22 [2]		 Zuzanna Barska '22 [1, 3-6]
Katelyn Herter '20 [2]
SF BULLDOGS Yazmeen Simpson '19 Ryan Ince '21

Conditions — 10/21/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 69%  ·  Pressure 1019.2 hPa

Temperature

81°F
↑ 83°F   ↓ 78°F
Feels like 82°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
15.1 kn
avg  ·  max 16.0 kn
Gusts to 27.6 kn
From ENE (75°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover86% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1019.2 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 17 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Jensen Beach/Martin County/MOA/Westwood/South Fork/The Pine: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.40)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.55
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.31 ± 0.23)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.40 means a rating gap counts about 35% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Jensen Beach/Martin County/MOA/Westwood/South Fork/The Pine by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Jensen Beach/Martin County/MOA/Westwood/South Fork/The Pine, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →