Turkey Bowl Invitational

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 27 10 37
2 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 25 29 54
3 Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 35 36 71
4 Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 17 63 80
5 Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils 44 42 86
6 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 64 27 91
7 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 52 47 99
8 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 57 59 116
9 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 58 63 121
10 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 61 64 125
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 3 1 2 1 1 6 2 1 17 Peter Taboada '20
Dino Nicastro '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 2 2 3 3 7 3 1 4 25 Thomas Quinn '18
Kelsey Kennedy '18
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 1 5 1 2 2 5 4 7 27 Julia Laforgia '19 [1-8]
Kailin Burns-Cohen '18 [1-4]
Whitney Butterfield '20 [5-8]
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 4 3 4 8 4 1 8 3 35 Patrick Modin '19
Jack Quinn '20
Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils 5 4 6 6 3 8 6 6 44 Harrison Bailey '18 [1-8]
Tomas Rios '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Alexandra Savin '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 9 7 10 5 6 2 3 10 52 Quinn Harrington '19
Walter Mehl '21
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 10 6 5 7 8 7 9 5 57 Thomas Marino '21 [1-8]
Katie Caviness '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Ava May '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 7 10 7 9 5 4 7 9 58 Luke Duplessis '20 [1-8]
Henry Gallagher '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Ryan Mayes '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 8 8 9 10 9 10 5 2 61 Kevin Tang '19
Dan Rosario '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 6 9 8 4 10 9 10 8 64 Hannah Mercurio '20
Mia Chmelar '19
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 10 Lauren Ehnot '20 [1-8]
Alex Chrystal '20 [1-4]
Hope Maguire '19 [5-8]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 4 4 3 2 2 5 2 5 27 Sophie Lusty '20 [1-8]
Leo Briant '19 [1-4, 7-8]
Michael Ahern '21 [5-6]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 6 5 5 5 3 2 1 2 29 Sean Groskoph '20
Avery Anderson '21
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 7 3 2 4 6 4 6 4 36 Evan Hybl '19
Peter Tully '21
Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils 3 8 4 3 7 7 4 6 42 Malcolm Harrison '19 [1-8]
Chris Disibio '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Luke Browne '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 6 6 7 8 10 5 3 47 Matthew Bell '20
Rodney Wotton '20
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 9 7 7 6 5 9 9 7 59 Zoe Papier '19
Samuel Dempsey '19
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 5 9 8 9 9 6 7 10 63 Yumtsokyi Bhum '19
James Mccarron '18
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 8 2 9 10 10 8 8 8 63 Reilly Fitzgerald '18
Zach Brooks '21
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 10 10 10 8 4 3 10 9 64 Veloce Scott '21 [1-8]
Annika Neumann-Loreck '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Stephanie Twentyman '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (30 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Central Regional High SchoolCentral Regional High School Eagles7788991010
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 1889910101111
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 299101011111313
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts1010111113131414
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers1111131314141515
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs1313141415151616
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 11414151516161717
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 215151616171777
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs161617177788
Westfield High SchoolWestfield High School Blue Devils1717778899

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Central Regional High SchoolCentral Regional High School Eagles11223344
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 122334455
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 233445566
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts44556677
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers55667788
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs66778899
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 17788991010
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 28899101011
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs9910101122
Westfield High SchoolWestfield High School Blue Devils1010112233
School / Team SkipperCrew
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Peter Taboada '20 Dino Nicastro '20
Eagles Reilly Fitzgerald '18 Zach Brooks '21
Chatham High School Chatham High School Luke Duplessis '20 [1-8] Henry Gallagher '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Ryan Mayes '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Cougars 1 Yumtsokyi Bhum '19 James Mccarron '18
Chatham High School Chatham High School Thomas Marino '21 [1-8] Katie Caviness '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Ava May '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Cougars 2 Zoe Papier '19 Samuel Dempsey '19
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Quinn Harrington '19 Walter Mehl '21
Colts Matthew Bell '20 Rodney Wotton '20
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Kevin Tang '19 Dan Rosario '19
Panthers Veloce Scott '21 [1-8] Annika Neumann-Loreck '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Stephanie Twentyman '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Patrick Modin '19 Jack Quinn '20
Bulldogs Evan Hybl '19 Peter Tully '21
Summit High School Summit High School Thomas Quinn '18 Kelsey Kennedy '18
Hilltoppers 1 Sean Groskoph '20 Avery Anderson '21
Summit High School Summit High School Hannah Mercurio '20 Mia Chmelar '19
Hilltoppers 2 Sophie Lusty '20 [1-8] Leo Briant '19 [1-4, 7-8]
Michael Ahern '21 [5-6]
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Julia Laforgia '19 [1-8] Kailin Burns-Cohen '18 [1-4]
Whitney Butterfield '20 [5-8]
Monarchs Lauren Ehnot '20 [1-8] Alex Chrystal '20 [1-4]
Hope Maguire '19 [5-8]
Westfield High School Westfield High School Harrison Bailey '18 [1-8] Tomas Rios '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Alexandra Savin '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Blue Devils Malcolm Harrison '19 [1-8] Chris Disibio '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Luke Browne '20 [3-4, 7-8]

Conditions — 11/04/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 56%  ·  Pressure 1027.0 hPa

Temperature

50°F
↑ 54°F   ↓ 42°F
Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.6 kn
avg  ·  max 6.5 kn
Gusts to 16.3 kn
From ENE (68°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover94% Sunshine9.3 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1027.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Summit: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.05 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →