VISA CCS Team 2 Fleet Race Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 16 16
2 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 25 25
3 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 27 27
4 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 37 37
5 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 46 46
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 3 3 16 Brendan Little '18 [1-2, 5-6, 10]
John Vail '20 [3-4, 7-9]
Anna Flynn '20 [1-2, 5-6, 10]
Clare Elden Gaule '21 [3-4, 7-9]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 1 2 25 Gannon Troutman '21 [1-2, 5-6, 10]
Duke Cowart '19 [3-4, 7-9]
Rachel Valadez '20 [1-2, 5-6, 10]
Louie Lafevre '17 [3-4, 7-9]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 2 2 4 4 4 2 2 2 4 1 27 Tristan Elden '20 [1-2, 5-6, 10]
Lucas Orta '19 [3-4, 7-9]
Kennedy Jones '20 [1-2, 5-6, 10]
Beliz Yilmaz '17 [3-4, 7-9]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 4 5 2 2 5 5 4 4 2 4 37 Harrison Thomson '22 [1-2, 5-6, 10]
Maggie Campbell '22 [3-4, 7-9]
Jon Kruger '20 [1-2, 5-6, 10]
Clare Harbin '19 [3-4, 7-9]
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 5 4 5 5 2 4 5 5 5 DNF 46 Maiya Foleck '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Dax Dimuzio '21 [3-4, 7-10]
Gabby Foley '19 [1-2]
Hanna Mohsin '19 [3-4, 7-10]
Elaina Tenfelde '20 [5-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 11111111111
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 22222222222
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 33333333333
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators4444444444
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks5555555555
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 Brendan Little '18 [1-2, 5-6, 10]
John Vail '20 [3-4, 7-9]
Anna Flynn '20 [1-2, 5-6, 10]
Clare Elden Gaule '21 [3-4, 7-9]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 Gannon Troutman '21 [1-2, 5-6, 10]
Duke Cowart '19 [3-4, 7-9]
Rachel Valadez '20 [1-2, 5-6, 10]
Louie Lafevre '17 [3-4, 7-9]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 Tristan Elden '20 [1-2, 5-6, 10]
Lucas Orta '19 [3-4, 7-9]
Kennedy Jones '20 [1-2, 5-6, 10]
Beliz Yilmaz '17 [3-4, 7-9]
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators Maiya Foleck '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Dax Dimuzio '21 [3-4, 7-10]
Gabby Foley '19 [1-2]
Hanna Mohsin '19 [3-4, 7-10]
Elaina Tenfelde '20 [5-6]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks Harrison Thomson '22 [1-2, 5-6, 10]
Maggie Campbell '22 [3-4, 7-9]
Jon Kruger '20 [1-2, 5-6, 10]
Clare Harbin '19 [3-4, 7-9]

Conditions — 10/07/2017 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 75%  ·  Pressure 1018.7 hPa

Temperature

77°F
↑ 81°F   ↓ 67°F
Feels like 81°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.5 kn
avg  ·  max 8.6 kn
Gusts to 20.0 kn
From S (172°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover58% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity75% Pressure1018.7 hPa Rain0.03 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Christchurch: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.08 ± 0.28)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christchurch by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at Christchurch, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →