VISA NA JV Fleet Race Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 17 17
2 Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 17 17
3 Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 33 33
4 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 37 37
5 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 39 39
6 Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Trojans 45 45
7 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 56 56
8 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 60 60
9 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 68 68
10 Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 68 68
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 1 3 3 3 1 3 1 2 17 Eleanor Patterson '22
Grace Watlington '22
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2 1 5 1 2 1 4 1 17 Audrey Permenter '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Lydia Sweeney '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Blake Brown '21 [1-4]
Jonah Abrams '22 [5-8]
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators 3 2 2 5 8 5 3 5 33 Cole Frankenhoff '22
Caden Sutton '21
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 4 6 4 2 5 4 6 6 37 Davis Mann '23
Connor Mccarty '21
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 8 7 1 7 9 2 2 3 39 Jack Butler '23 [1-8]
Adam Mcaninley '23 [1-2]
Kate Moores '24 [3-4, 7-8]
Polly Freel '24 [5-6]
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Trojans 5 4 6 4 6 8 8 4 45 Katherine Anna Hamner '22 [1-8]
Chris Howe '25 [1-2, 7-8]
Ian Howard '23 [3-4]
Mike Hudson '22 [5-6]
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 6 8 10 6 7 7 5 7 56 Egecan Tezcan '19 [1-4]
Rachel Valdex '20 [5-8]
Peyton Smith '21 [1-4]
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 9 5 8 8 3 9 9 9 60 Chloe Cowan '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Susannah Day '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Carrie Landman '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 7 9 9 10 10 6 7 10 68 Pate Krieger '22 [1-3]
Ashlyn Wise '21 [4-5]
Langley Amory '22 [6-8]
Ashlyn Wise '21 [1-3, 6-7]
Pate Krieger '22 [4-5, 8]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 10 10 7 9 4 10 10 8 68 Mary Archer Connors '24 [1-2, 5]
Annie Trapani '24 [3-4, 7-8]
Cooper Short '24 [6]
Jack Carson '22 [1-2]
Kiana Beachy '24 [3-4]
Naomi Hohnholt '22 [5-6]
River Banks '21 [7-8]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses11111111
Hampton Roads AcademyHampton Roads Academy Navigators33333333
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 144444444
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 222222222
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints55555555
Norfolk AcademyNorfolk Academy Bulldogs66666666
Norfolk Collegiate SchoolNorfolk Collegiate School Oaks77777777
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders 188888888
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders 299999999
Walsingham AcademyWalsingham Academy Trojans1010101010101010
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses Egecan Tezcan '19 [1-4]
Rachel Valdex '20 [5-8]
Peyton Smith '21 [1-4]
Hampton Roads Academy Hampton Roads Academy Navigators Cole Frankenhoff '22 Caden Sutton '21
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 Davis Mann '23 Connor Mccarty '21
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 Chloe Cowan '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Susannah Day '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Carrie Landman '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints Jack Butler '23 [1-8] Adam Mcaninley '23 [1-2]
Kate Moores '24 [3-4, 7-8]
Polly Freel '24 [5-6]
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Bulldogs Audrey Permenter '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Lydia Sweeney '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Blake Brown '21 [1-4]
Jonah Abrams '22 [5-8]
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks Mary Archer Connors '24 [1-2, 5]
Annie Trapani '24 [3-4, 7-8]
Cooper Short '24 [6]
Jack Carson '22 [1-2]
Kiana Beachy '24 [3-4]
Naomi Hohnholt '22 [5-6]
River Banks '21 [7-8]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 Eleanor Patterson '22 Grace Watlington '22
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 Pate Krieger '22 [1-3]
Ashlyn Wise '21 [4-5]
Langley Amory '22 [6-8]
Ashlyn Wise '21 [1-3, 6-7]
Pate Krieger '22 [4-5, 8]
Walsingham Academy Walsingham Academy Trojans Katherine Anna Hamner '22 [1-8] Chris Howe '25 [1-2, 7-8]
Ian Howard '23 [3-4]
Mike Hudson '22 [5-6]

Conditions — 09/23/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 73%  ·  Pressure 1017.5 hPa

Temperature

76°F
↑ 78°F   ↓ 72°F
Feels like 80°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.0 kn
avg  ·  max 9.4 kn
Gusts to 17.9 kn
From NNE (16°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover27% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity73% Pressure1017.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Norfolk Academy: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.22
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.22 ± 0.24)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Norfolk Academy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Norfolk Academy, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →