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2018 Norcal 4 Gold

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Alameda High School Alameda High School Hornets 1 12 12
2 St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco Wildcats 1 13 13
3 Alameda High School Alameda High School Hornets 2 32 32
4 Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs 33 33
5 Redwood High School Redwood High School Giants 33 33
6 Soquel High School Soquel High School Knights 40 40
7 Lick-Wilmerding High School Lick-Wilmerding High School Tigers 42 42
8 Acalanes High School Acalanes High School Dons 46 46
9 Amador Valley Amador Valley Dons 58 58
10 Stevenson School Stevenson School Pirates 63 63
11 College Park High School College Park High School Falcons 2 64 64
12 St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco Wildcats 2 66 66
13 Bishop O'Dowd High School Bishop O'Dowd High School Varsity 70 70
14 Design Tech High School Design Tech High School d.tech 2 72 72
15 Design Tech High School Design Tech High School d.tech 3 72 72
16 Marin Academy Marin Academy Wildcats 78 78
17 Harbor High School Harbor High School Pirates 83 83
18 Design Tech High School Design Tech High School d.tech 1 84 84
19 College Park High School College Park High School Falcons 1 95 95
20 Monte Vista High School Monte Vista High School Mustangs 98 98
21 Campolindo High School Campolindo High School Cougars 100 100
22 Head Royce Head Royce Jayhawks 102 102
23 Athenian Athenian Owls 1 103 103
24 Berkeley High School Berkeley High School Yellowjackets 110 110
25 Athenian Athenian Owls 2 110 110
26 Aptos High School Aptos High School Mariners 110 110
27 Encinal High School Encinal High School Jets 126 126
28 School of the Arts (SF) School of the Arts (SF) SOTA 126 126
29 Athenian Athenian Owls 3 139 139
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Alameda High School Alameda High School Hornets 1 1 2 5 1 3 12 Jonathon Andrews '20
Dylan Wondolleck '23
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco Wildcats 1 5 4 1 2 1 13 Johnny Perkins '21
Audrey Whitney '22
Alameda High School Alameda High School Hornets 2 2 14 3 9 4 32 Cooper Butler-Brown '21
Gemma Hanson '20
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs 3 8 10 7 5 33 Sebastian Green '22
Jack Cady '21
Redwood High School Redwood High School Giants 6 9 2 6 10 33 Hailey Thompson '23
Taylor Elliott '22
Soquel High School Soquel High School Knights 9 6 12 5 8 40 Kyra Phelan '22
Bella Donahue '22
Lick-Wilmerding High School Lick-Wilmerding High School Tigers 8 12 6 10 6 42 James Scherr '20
Ben Wheeler '20
Acalanes High School Acalanes High School Dons RAF 7 4 3 2 46 Sophia Browne '20 [1, 4-5]
Ben Foox '23 [2-3]
Lola Rao '20 [1, 4-5]
Amador Valley Amador Valley Dons 18 13 11 4 12 58 Christopher Hopkins '21 [1-5]
Alec Smith '23 [1-2, 5]
Maks Shikhaleev '22 [3-4]
Stevenson School Stevenson School Pirates 10 23 7 12 11 63 Adam Lee '20
Schuyler Jones '21
College Park High School College Park High School Falcons 2 7 1 27 20 9 64 Jack Holden '22
Annika Altman '22
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco Wildcats 2 14 15 8 15 14 66 Evelyn Plam '19
Sebastian Rodriguez '21
Bishop O'Dowd High School Bishop O'Dowd High School Varsity 4 17 26 16 7 70 Max-Emilien Kluiwstra-Descalle '21 [1-5]
Harry Hollins '23 [1, 3]
Max Laubstein '21 [2, 4-5]
Design Tech High School Design Tech High School d.tech 2 19 5 16 17 15 72 Michael Mcculloch '21
Ryan Ting '22
Design Tech High School Design Tech High School d.tech 3 20 3 22 14 13 72 Jemma Schroder '20 [1-5]
Matthew Morley '20 [1-2, 5]
Douglas Spaeth '22 [3-4]
Marin Academy Marin Academy Wildcats 15 11 9 13 DNF 78 Jack Mcdonnell '21
Preston Downs '21
Harbor High School Harbor High School Pirates 16 19 13 18 17 83 Chloe Long '19
Geza Bateman '21
Design Tech High School Design Tech High School d.tech 1 11 10 17 23 23 84 Josh Goldberg '21 [1-5]
Zach Morley '21 [1-2, 5]
Angus Hamilton '22 [3-4]
College Park High School College Park High School Falcons 1 12 24 15 22 22 95 Nate Holden '21
Brooks Knuckles '23
Monte Vista High School Monte Vista High School Mustangs 13 21 20 28 16 98 Robert Laskarzewski '21
Joshua Benveniste '22
Campolindo High School Campolindo High School Cougars 17 22 21 21 19 100 Carla Leone '20 [1-5]
Morgan Giovinazzi '22 [1-4]
Haley Rasilla '22 [5]
Head Royce Head Royce Jayhawks 26 25 25 8 18 102 Eloise Henry '20
Leslie Kwok '22
Athenian Athenian Owls 1 23 18 23 19 20 103 Ezra Newman '21 [1-5]
Dylan Wong '20 [1-2, 5]
Leo Marek '22 [3-4]
Berkeley High School Berkeley High School Yellowjackets 21 16 28 24 21 110 Caton Woll '20
Millay Metz '22
Athenian Athenian Owls 2 22 20 19 25 24 110 Alisa Chernikova '19 [1-5]
Solimar Guzman '20 [1-2]
James Mcgaughey '22 [3-4]
Aisleen Welch '20 [5]
Aptos High School Aptos High School Mariners 25 DNF 14 11 DSQ 110 Ximena Greatorex '21
Sam Bach '19
Encinal High School Encinal High School Jets 24 26 24 27 25 126 Lily Imani '20
Jack Obot '23
School of the Arts (SF) School of the Arts (SF) SOTA 28 28 18 26 26 126 Milla Limkin '20
Aukje Van Eck '20
Athenian Athenian Owls 3 27 27 29 29 27 139 Julieanna Fajardo '20 [1-5]
Suzie Myles '21 [1-2, 5]
Annie Chan '21 [3-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (12 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Acalanes High SchoolAcalanes High School Dons4747474747
Alameda High SchoolAlameda High School Hornets 14343434343
Alameda High SchoolAlameda High School Hornets 25757575757
Amador ValleyAmador Valley Dons4141414141
Aptos High SchoolAptos High School Mariners101101101101101
Berkeley High SchoolBerkeley High School Yellowjackets9696969696
Bishop O'Dowd High SchoolBishop O'Dowd High School Varsity4949494949
Campolindo High SchoolCampolindo High School Cougars4444444444
College Park High SchoolCollege Park High School Falcons 15050505050
College Park High SchoolCollege Park High School Falcons 24545454545
Convent and Stuart Hall High SchoolsConvent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs99999
Design Tech High SchoolDesign Tech High School d.tech 13737373737
Design Tech High SchoolDesign Tech High School d.tech 23636363636
Design Tech High SchoolDesign Tech High School d.tech 33838383838
Encinal High SchoolEncinal High School Jets4646464646
Harbor High SchoolHarbor High School Pirates109109109109109
Head RoyceHead Royce Jayhawks4848484848
Lick-Wilmerding High SchoolLick-Wilmerding High School Tigers55555
Marin AcademyMarin Academy Wildcats22222
Monte Vista High SchoolMonte Vista High School Mustangs5454545454
Redwood High SchoolRedwood High School Giants122122122122122
School of the Arts (SF)School of the Arts (SF) SOTA3131313131
Soquel High SchoolSoquel High School Knights108108108108108
St. Ignatius College Prep - San FranciscoSt. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco Wildcats 133333
St. Ignatius College Prep - San FranciscoSt. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco Wildcats 244444
Stevenson SchoolStevenson School Pirates9999999999
AthenianAthenian Owls 15151515151
AthenianAthenian Owls 24242424242
AthenianAthenian Owls 35656565656
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Acalanes High School Acalanes High School Dons Sophia Browne '20 [1, 4-5]
Ben Foox '23 [2-3]		 Lola Rao '20 [1, 4-5]
Alameda High School Alameda High School Hornets 1 Jonathon Andrews '20 Dylan Wondolleck '23
Alameda High School Alameda High School Hornets 2 Cooper Butler-Brown '21 Gemma Hanson '20
Amador Valley Amador Valley Dons Christopher Hopkins '21 [1-5] Alec Smith '23 [1-2, 5]
Maks Shikhaleev '22 [3-4]
Aptos High School Aptos High School Mariners Ximena Greatorex '21 Sam Bach '19
Athenian Athenian Owls 1 Ezra Newman '21 [1-5] Dylan Wong '20 [1-2, 5]
Leo Marek '22 [3-4]
Athenian Athenian Owls 2 Alisa Chernikova '19 [1-5] Solimar Guzman '20 [1-2]
James Mcgaughey '22 [3-4]
Aisleen Welch '20 [5]
Athenian Athenian Owls 3 Julieanna Fajardo '20 [1-5] Suzie Myles '21 [1-2, 5]
Annie Chan '21 [3-4]
Berkeley High School Berkeley High School Yellowjackets Caton Woll '20 Millay Metz '22
Bishop O'Dowd High School Bishop O'Dowd High School Varsity Max-Emilien Kluiwstra-Descalle '21 [1-5] Harry Hollins '23 [1, 3]
Max Laubstein '21 [2, 4-5]
Campolindo High School Campolindo High School Cougars Carla Leone '20 [1-5] Morgan Giovinazzi '22 [1-4]
Haley Rasilla '22 [5]
College Park High School College Park High School Falcons 1 Nate Holden '21 Brooks Knuckles '23
College Park High School College Park High School Falcons 2 Jack Holden '22 Annika Altman '22
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs Sebastian Green '22 Jack Cady '21
Design Tech High School Design Tech High School d.tech 1 Josh Goldberg '21 [1-5] Zach Morley '21 [1-2, 5]
Angus Hamilton '22 [3-4]
Design Tech High School Design Tech High School d.tech 2 Michael Mcculloch '21 Ryan Ting '22
Design Tech High School Design Tech High School d.tech 3 Jemma Schroder '20 [1-5] Matthew Morley '20 [1-2, 5]
Douglas Spaeth '22 [3-4]
Encinal High School Encinal High School Jets Lily Imani '20 Jack Obot '23
Harbor High School Harbor High School Pirates Chloe Long '19 Geza Bateman '21
Head Royce Head Royce Jayhawks Eloise Henry '20 Leslie Kwok '22
Lick-Wilmerding High School Lick-Wilmerding High School Tigers James Scherr '20 Ben Wheeler '20
Marin Academy Marin Academy Wildcats Jack Mcdonnell '21 Preston Downs '21
Monte Vista High School Monte Vista High School Mustangs Robert Laskarzewski '21 Joshua Benveniste '22
Redwood High School Redwood High School Giants Hailey Thompson '23 Taylor Elliott '22
School of the Arts (SF) School of the Arts (SF) SOTA Milla Limkin '20 Aukje Van Eck '20
Soquel High School Soquel High School Knights Kyra Phelan '22 Bella Donahue '22
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco Wildcats 1 Johnny Perkins '21 Audrey Whitney '22
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco Wildcats 2 Evelyn Plam '19 Sebastian Rodriguez '21
Stevenson School Stevenson School Pirates Adam Lee '20 Schuyler Jones '21

Conditions — 11/04/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 63%  ·  Pressure 1016.2 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.9 kn
avg  ·  max 4.9 kn
Gusts to 13.0 kn
From SW (215°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover69% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity63% Pressure1016.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Alameda: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.01
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.32 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Alameda by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Alameda, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →