Anteater - Silver

HostNewport Harbor
Date11/10/2018
TypeIn-District
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#		School	Team	A	B	TOT
1		St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Wildcats	39	23	62
2		Cathedral Catholic High School	Dons	42	49	91
3		Mater Dei High School	Monarchs	48	53	101
4		Marin Catholic	Wildcats	44	67	111
5		Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	55	76	131
6		Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	68	69	137
7		The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	73	69	142
8		International HS - SF	Jaguars	94	50	144
9		Mission Bay High School	Buccaneer	70	75	145
10		Marin Academy	Wildcats	37	113	150
11		Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings	110	43	153
12		South Torrance High School	Spartans	27	134	161
13		San Francisco University High School	San Francisco	112	74	186
14		College Park High School	Falcons	121	72	193
15		Torrey Pines High School	Falcons 1	87	111	198
16		Sage Hill School	Lightning	109	89	198
17		New West Charter	Eagles	120	93	213
18		Santa Monica High School	Vikings	155	69	224
19	$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Ryūj Dragon	91	139	230
20		Panthers	Panthers	109	127	236
21		Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	137	100	237
22		Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	138	131	269
23		Parker	Parker	105	181	286
24		Pacific Palisades Charter High School	Pacific Palisades Ch	182	130	312
25		Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	156	167	323
26		Blue and Gold	Varsity	144	180	324
27		Torrey Pines High School	Falcons 2	177	172	349

	School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
	South Torrance High School	Spartans	8	11	2	2	1	2	1	27	Emma Tallman '21 Juliet Gerwin '23
	Marin Academy	Wildcats	2	5	5	3	4	14	4	37	Jack Mcdonnell '21 Elise Lamarre '19
	St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Wildcats	4	8	3	8	3	3	10	39	William Bayliss '20 [1-7] Beckett Shinn '25 [1-2, 5-6] Sam Wu '22 [3-4, 7]
	Cathedral Catholic High School	Dons	1	1	9	12	2	10	7	42	Kyle Gallagher '19 [1-7] Grace Lawson '19 [1-6] Claire Backer '21 [7]
	Marin Catholic	Wildcats	5	13	4	7	6	6	3	44	Keilah Stypulkoski '19 [1-7] Bellarose Campbell '22 [1-2, 5-7] Lucie Russell '20 [3-4]
	Mater Dei High School	Monarchs	3	3	1	4	10	16	11	48	Dutch Dietrick '20 [1-7] Teresa Bui '21 [1-6] Sophia Mulvania '22 [7]
	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	11	4	10	14	5	5	6	55	Sebastian Green '22 [1-7] Miles Raneri '21 [1-2, 5-6] Nadia Gibbons '21 [3-4, 7]
	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	10	9	8	6	18	12	5	68	Emma Figueredo '19 Francis Tarpey-Shwed '19
	Mission Bay High School	Buccaneer	16	10	12	5	8	4	15	70	Marleigh Henehan '21 [1-7] Adelaide Cunningham '20 [1-6] Adelaide Hall '23 [7]
	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	7	7	11	13	12	11	12	73	Fredrick Baldauf '20 Charlotte Navin '20
	Torrey Pines High School	Falcons 1	13	2	21	24	11	7	9	87	Derek Fu '18 Alexita Velasco '19
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Ryūj Dragon	9	20	6	1	15	23	17	91	Nikhil Stewart '21 Elissa Martinez '19
	International HS - SF	Jaguars	6	12	18	15	OCS	1	14	94	Alexander Kasolas '22 Amelia Nugent '21
	Parker	Parker	21	19	19	22	9	13	2	105	Paulo Campbell '22 Topher Costa '21
	Sage Hill School	Lightning	14	6	24	20	21	8	16	109	Darcy Chung '20 [1-2, 5-7] Ezugo Ononye '20 [3-4] Aiden Arvizu '20 [1-2, 5-7] Colin Sueyoshi '22 [3-4]
	Panthers	Panthers	19	24	13	10	7	17	19	109
	Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings	12	17	7	9	23	21	21	110	Kyle Vaughn '19 [1-7] Sydney Baker '22 [1-2, 5-7] Ian Thompsen '22 [3-4]
	San Francisco University High School	San Francisco	17	15	14	19	16	9	22	112	Micherice Tao '19 [1-6] Anson Walker '21 [7] Janavi Padala '21 [1-6]
	New West Charter	Eagles	20	21	15	11	13	20	20	120	Isabelle Fisher '22 Melissa Epstein '21
	College Park High School	Falcons	15	14	26	17	22	19	8	121	Zack Taylor '19 Chase Latson '19
	Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	18	18	16	21	20	26	18	137	Michael Mcculloch '21 Kieran Elrod '21
	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	25	23	22	18	19	18	13	138	Joshua Holzer '20 [1-2, 7] Payton Hildebrand '20 [3-6] Aquinnah Todd '21 [1-2, 7]
	Blue and Gold	Varsity	26	16	23	23	14	15	27	144	Sam Suddath '26 [1-2, 5-6] Elijah Smith '21 [3-4] Mia Nadel '22 [7] Sam Sackett '22 [1-2] Brando De Luca Gabrielli '22 [3-6] Taye Reiss '23 [7]
	Santa Monica High School	Vikings	23	22	20	16	24	25	25	155	Casper Jensen '20 Arielle Candaele '22
	Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	22	26	17	DNF	17	22	24	156	Teddy Knobel '21 [1-7] Tatem Gee '23 [1-2, 5-7] Nico Chapman '22 [3-4]
	Torrey Pines High School	Falcons 2	24	25	27	DNF	26	24	23	177	Katherine Shofran '19 [1-7] Julia Allen '19 [1-4] Loren Sim '19 [5-7]
	Pacific Palisades Charter High School	Pacific Palisades Ch	27	27	25	25	25	27	26	182	Wills Stratton '25 Katelyn Chang '27

	School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
	St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Wildcats	8	1	1	1	3	6	3	23	Evelyn Plam '19 Will Devine '22
	Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings	1	2	18	8	4	2	8	43	Chris Salas '22 [1-7] Ava Lord '22 [1-2, 5-7] Aidan O'Donnell '22 [3-4]
	Cathedral Catholic High School	Dons	2	8	7	3	12	12	5	49	Jacob Titcomb '21 Michael Murphy '22
	International HS - SF	Jaguars	17	7	3	4	2	16	1	50	Julien Prefot '22 Alexander Kasolas '22
	Mater Dei High School	Monarchs	14	5	8	10	1	8	7	53	Gretchen Hohenstein '20 Sophia Burton '20
	Marin Catholic	Wildcats	6	6	10	11	8	13	13	67	Gabriella Von Esmarch '19 [1-7] Thomas Bird '21 [1-4] Lucie Russell '20 [5-7]
	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	7	10	9	17	6	5	15	69	Griffin Chen '19 Lily Hock '20
	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	10	11	19	19	5	1	4	69	Alex Pick '19 [1-7] Zoe Shane '20 [1-2, 5-6] Jonah Benningfield '20 [3-4, 7]
	Santa Monica High School	Vikings	16	16	11	7	13	4	2	69	Jack Zemke '21 Felix Mardesich '22
	College Park High School	Falcons	11	18	5	9	11	7	11	72	Brendan Connelly '23 Morgan Giovinazzi '22
	San Francisco University High School	San Francisco	5	3	20	15	15	10	6	74	Max Stuebe '22 [1-7] James Iskander '22 [1-2, 5-7] Anson Walker '21 [3-4]
	Mission Bay High School	Buccaneer	9	4	15	2	17	9	19	75	Brian Fitzsimmons '20 [1-7] Owen Getz '21 [1-2, 5-7] Emily Sanchez-Garcia '21 [3-4]
	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	3	12	14	6	9	14	18	76	Ben Covington '19 Jack Cady '21
	Sage Hill School	Lightning	15	17	21	14	7	3	12	89	Koby Twist '21 [1-7] Alistair Coyle '21 [1-4] Colin Sueyoshi '22 [5-7]
	New West Charter	Eagles	20	19	2	5	20	11	16	93	Matei Meglic '22 Lucas Devega '22
	Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	19	14	4	20	16	18	9	100	Josh Goldberg '21 Joss Ettrick '21
	Torrey Pines High School	Falcons 1	13	13	17	13	10	23	22	111	Maddie Biemiller '20 [1-2] Campbell Biemiller '20 [3-7] Marcos Altbaum '19 [1-2] Isabella Collins '19 [3-7]
	Marin Academy	Wildcats	23	15	12	12	19	15	17	113	Beck Lorsch '21 Preston Downs '22
	Panthers	Panthers	12	22	6	16	22	24	25	127
	Pacific Palisades Charter High School	Pacific Palisades Ch	18	23	23	18	21	17	10	130	Catalina Brody '24 Oliver '27
	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	21	9	13	21	18	22	27	131	Ian Somerville '22 Ceci Meade '20
	South Torrance High School	Spartans	4	20	22	25	DNF	21	14	134	James Sawyer '21 Wynslow Wilmot '21
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Ryūj Dragon	26	21	16	22	14	20	20	139	Troy Davidson '20 Diego Lockyer '21
	Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	22	25	DNF	24	26	19	23	167	Charlie Gates '22 [1-7] John Loren Chapman '22 [1-2, 5-7] Owen Chapman '22 [3-4]
	Torrey Pines High School	Falcons 2	24	24	DSQ	23	24	25	24	172	Bryson Dort '19 Mike Schugar '19
	Blue and Gold	Varsity	DNS	DNF	24	DNF	25	26	21	180	Tessa Greene '22 [1-3] Taye Reiss '23 [4] Florian Meister '21 [5-7] Mia Nadel '22 [1-2] Taye Reiss '23 [3] Tessa Greene '22 [4] Elijah Smith '21 [5-7]
	Parker	Parker	25	26	DNF	26	23	27	26	181	Caeden Mujahed '21 Carolyn Kravets '21

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.210+0.21

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

	Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A
	Cathedral Catholic High School Dons	31	31	33	33	35	35	37
	College Park High School Falcons	32	32	34	34	36	36	38
	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	33	33	35	35	37	37	39
	Design Tech High School d.tech 1	34	34	36	36	38	38	40
	Design Tech High School d.tech 2	35	35	37	37	39	39	41
	Parker Parker	46	46	48	48	50	50	52
	Blue and Gold Varsity	30	30	32	32	34	34	36
	International HS - SF Jaguars	36	36	38	38	40	40	42
	Marin Academy Wildcats	38	38	40	40	42	42	44
	Marin Catholic Wildcats	39	39	41	41	43	43	45
	Mater Dei High School Monarchs	40	40	42	42	44	44	46
	Mission Bay High School Buccaneer	41	41	43	43	45	45	47
	New West Charter Eagles	42	42	44	44	46	46	48
	Pacific Palisades Charter High School Pacific Palisades Ch	43	43	45	45	47	47	49
	Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings	44	44	46	46	48	48	50
	Panthers Panthers	45	45	47	47	49	49	51
	Sage Hill School Lightning	47	47	49	49	51	51	53
	San Francisco University High School San Francisco	48	48	50	50	52	52	54
	Santa Monica High School Vikings	49	49	51	51	53	53	55
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science Ryūj Dragon	37	37	39	39	41	41	43
	South Torrance High School Spartans	50	50	52	52	54	54	56
	St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco Wildcats	51	51	53	53	55	55	30
	Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1	52	52	54	54	56	56	31
	Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2	53	53	55	55	30	30	32
	The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	54	54	56	56	31	31	33
	Torrey Pines High School Falcons 1	55	55	30	30	32	32	34
	Torrey Pines High School Falcons 2	56	56	31	31	33	33	35

Division B

	Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B
	Cathedral Catholic High School Dons	32	32	34	34	36	36	36
	College Park High School Falcons	33	33	35	35	37	37	37
	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	34	34	36	36	38	38	38
	Design Tech High School d.tech 1	35	35	37	37	39	39	39
	Design Tech High School d.tech 2	36	36	38	38	40	40	40
	Parker Parker	47	47	49	49	51	51	51
	Blue and Gold Varsity	31	31	33	33	35	35	35
	International HS - SF Jaguars	37	37	39	39	41	41	41
	Marin Academy Wildcats	39	39	41	41	43	43	43
	Marin Catholic Wildcats	40	40	42	42	44	44	44
	Mater Dei High School Monarchs	41	41	43	43	45	45	45
	Mission Bay High School Buccaneer	42	42	44	44	46	46	46
	New West Charter Eagles	43	43	45	45	47	47	47
	Pacific Palisades Charter High School Pacific Palisades Ch	44	44	46	46	48	48	48
	Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings	45	45	47	47	49	49	49
	Panthers Panthers	46	46	48	48	50	50	50
	Sage Hill School Lightning	48	48	50	50	52	52	52
	San Francisco University High School San Francisco	49	49	51	51	53	53	53
	Santa Monica High School Vikings	50	50	52	52	54	54	54
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science Ryūj Dragon	38	38	40	40	42	42	42
	South Torrance High School Spartans	51	51	53	53	55	55	55
	St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco Wildcats	52	52	54	54	56	56	56
	Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1	53	53	55	55	30	30	30
	Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2	54	54	56	56	31	31	31
	The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	55	55	30	30	32	32	32
	Torrey Pines High School Falcons 1	56	56	31	31	33	33	33
	Torrey Pines High School Falcons 2	30	30	32	32	34	34	34

	School / Team	Skipper	Crew
	Blue and Gold	Sam Suddath '26 [1-2, 5-6] Elijah Smith '21 [3-4] Mia Nadel '22 [7]	Sam Sackett '22 [1-2] Brando De Luca Gabrielli '22 [3-6] Taye Reiss '23 [7]
	Varsity	Tessa Greene '22 [1-3] Taye Reiss '23 [4] Florian Meister '21 [5-7]	Mia Nadel '22 [1-2] Taye Reiss '23 [3] Tessa Greene '22 [4] Elijah Smith '21 [5-7]
	Cathedral Catholic High School	Kyle Gallagher '19 [1-7]	Grace Lawson '19 [1-6] Claire Backer '21 [7]
	Dons	Jacob Titcomb '21	Michael Murphy '22
	College Park High School	Zack Taylor '19	Chase Latson '19
	Falcons	Brendan Connelly '23	Morgan Giovinazzi '22
	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Sebastian Green '22 [1-7]	Miles Raneri '21 [1-2, 5-6] Nadia Gibbons '21 [3-4, 7]
	Cubs	Ben Covington '19	Jack Cady '21
	Design Tech High School	Michael Mcculloch '21	Kieran Elrod '21
	d.tech 1	Josh Goldberg '21	Joss Ettrick '21
	Design Tech High School	Teddy Knobel '21 [1-7]	Tatem Gee '23 [1-2, 5-7] Nico Chapman '22 [3-4]
	d.tech 2	Charlie Gates '22 [1-7]	John Loren Chapman '22 [1-2, 5-7] Owen Chapman '22 [3-4]
	International HS - SF	Alexander Kasolas '22	Amelia Nugent '21
	Jaguars	Julien Prefot '22	Alexander Kasolas '22
	Marin Academy	Jack Mcdonnell '21	Elise Lamarre '19
	Wildcats	Beck Lorsch '21	Preston Downs '22
	Marin Catholic	Keilah Stypulkoski '19 [1-7]	Bellarose Campbell '22 [1-2, 5-7] Lucie Russell '20 [3-4]
	Wildcats	Gabriella Von Esmarch '19 [1-7]	Thomas Bird '21 [1-4] Lucie Russell '20 [5-7]
	Mater Dei High School	Dutch Dietrick '20 [1-7]	Teresa Bui '21 [1-6] Sophia Mulvania '22 [7]
	Monarchs	Gretchen Hohenstein '20	Sophia Burton '20
	Mission Bay High School	Marleigh Henehan '21 [1-7]	Adelaide Cunningham '20 [1-6] Adelaide Hall '23 [7]
	Buccaneer	Brian Fitzsimmons '20 [1-7]	Owen Getz '21 [1-2, 5-7] Emily Sanchez-Garcia '21 [3-4]
	New West Charter	Isabelle Fisher '22	Melissa Epstein '21
	Eagles	Matei Meglic '22	Lucas Devega '22
	Pacific Palisades Charter High School	Wills Stratton '25	Katelyn Chang '27
	Pacific Palisades Ch	Catalina Brody '24	Oliver '27
	Palos Verdes High School	Kyle Vaughn '19 [1-7]	Sydney Baker '22 [1-2, 5-7] Ian Thompsen '22 [3-4]
	Sea Kings	Chris Salas '22 [1-7]	Ava Lord '22 [1-2, 5-7] Aidan O'Donnell '22 [3-4]
	Parker	Paulo Campbell '22	Topher Costa '21
	Parker	Caeden Mujahed '21	Carolyn Kravets '21
	Sage Hill School	Darcy Chung '20 [1-2, 5-7] Ezugo Ononye '20 [3-4]	Aiden Arvizu '20 [1-2, 5-7] Colin Sueyoshi '22 [3-4]
	Lightning	Koby Twist '21 [1-7]	Alistair Coyle '21 [1-4] Colin Sueyoshi '22 [5-7]
	San Francisco University High School	Micherice Tao '19 [1-6] Anson Walker '21 [7]	Janavi Padala '21 [1-6]
	San Francisco	Max Stuebe '22 [1-7]	James Iskander '22 [1-2, 5-7] Anson Walker '21 [3-4]
	Santa Monica High School	Casper Jensen '20	Arielle Candaele '22
	Vikings	Jack Zemke '21	Felix Mardesich '22
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Nikhil Stewart '21	Elissa Martinez '19
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Ryūj Dragon	Troy Davidson '20	Diego Lockyer '21
	South Torrance High School	Emma Tallman '21	Juliet Gerwin '23
	Spartans	James Sawyer '21	Wynslow Wilmot '21
	St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	William Bayliss '20 [1-7]	Beckett Shinn '25 [1-2, 5-6] Sam Wu '22 [3-4, 7]
	Wildcats	Evelyn Plam '19	Will Devine '22
	Tamalpais High School	Emma Figueredo '19	Francis Tarpey-Shwed '19
	Red Tailed Hawks 1	Griffin Chen '19	Lily Hock '20
	Tamalpais High School	Joshua Holzer '20 [1-2, 7] Payton Hildebrand '20 [3-6]	Aquinnah Todd '21 [1-2, 7]
	Red Tailed Hawks 2	Ian Somerville '22	Ceci Meade '20
	The Bay School of San Francisco	Fredrick Baldauf '20	Charlotte Navin '20
	Breakers	Alex Pick '19 [1-7]	Zoe Shane '20 [1-2, 5-6] Jonah Benningfield '20 [3-4, 7]
	Torrey Pines High School	Derek Fu '18	Alexita Velasco '19
	Falcons 1	Maddie Biemiller '20 [1-2] Campbell Biemiller '20 [3-7]	Marcos Altbaum '19 [1-2] Isabella Collins '19 [3-7]
	Torrey Pines High School	Katherine Shofran '19 [1-7]	Julia Allen '19 [1-4] Loren Sim '19 [5-7]
	Falcons 2	Bryson Dort '19	Mike Schugar '19

Conditions — 11/10/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 38% · Pressure 1014.3 hPa

Temperature

66°F

↑ 72°F ↓ 56°F

Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.3 kn

avg · max 7.6 kn

Gusts to 15.4 kn

From SW (225°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.4 hrs Humidity38% Pressure1014.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 8 kn · SW 5 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Newport Harbor: a typical day (+0.00)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.05

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.14 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Newport Harbor by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Newport Harbor, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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