MASSA Cressy Qualifier Radial

HostHilton Central/Mercy
Date09/15/2018
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Ranney School	Cameron Giblin '19	11
2	Ranney School	Luke Arnone '19	19
3	St. Augustine Prep School	Michael Pinto '19	30
4	Christian Brothers Academy	Ryan Ehnot '22	32
5	Southern Regional High School	Tom Green '19	35
6	Poquoson High School	Jack Mckenna '20	39
7	Trinity Hall	Lauren Ehnot '20	41
8	Yorktown	Colman Schofield '21	61
9	Rye Country Day School	Alexa Shea '21	63
10	Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Patrick Modin '19	67
11	Ranney School	Brooke Schmelz '21	67
12	Fordham Preparatory School	No Show	78
13	The Brearley School	Francesca Edmands '21	79
14	The Stony Brook School	Owen Himsworth '22	83
15	Severn School	Patrick Dolan '21	83
16	St. Augustine Prep School	Zachary York '20	84
17	Rye High School	Madeline Saffer '20	85
18	St. Augustine Prep School	Patrick York '20	101
19	Hilton Central	Matthew Lyons '19	109
20	Fairport High School	Adam Strobridge '22	111
21	Kent Island High School	Corbin Voorhes '21	114
22	Kent Island High School	Doug Macdonald '19	132
23	Mercy High School	Clementine Matzky '21	133

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT
Ranney School	Cameron Giblin '19	2	2	1	1	1	4	11
Ranney School	Luke Arnone '19	1	3	3	9	2	1	19
St. Augustine Prep School	Michael Pinto '19	5	6	4	7	5	3	30
Christian Brothers Academy	Ryan Ehnot '22	6	5	7	4	3	7	32
Southern Regional High School	Tom Green '19	3	4	5	2	10	11	35
Poquoson High School	Jack Mckenna '20	4	7	2	8	13	5	39
Trinity Hall	Lauren Ehnot '20	7	1	8	5	4	16	41
Yorktown	Colman Schofield '21	8	8	6	11	11	17	61
Rye Country Day School	Alexa Shea '21	9	9	19	10	6	10	63
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Patrick Modin '19	11	11	18	6	9	12	67
Ranney School	Brooke Schmelz '21	14	16	9	12	7	9	67
Fordham Preparatory School	No Show	DNF	12	13	3	12	14	78
The Brearley School	Francesca Edmands '21	17	14	10	21	15	2	79
The Stony Brook School	Owen Himsworth '22	15	15	14	13	18	8	83
Severn School	Patrick Dolan '21	19	13	12	19	14	6	83
St. Augustine Prep School	Zachary York '20	18	10	11	14	16	15	84
Rye High School	Madeline Saffer '20	10	20	17	17	8	13	85
St. Augustine Prep School	Patrick York '20	16	17	16	15	19	18	101
Hilton Central	Matthew Lyons '19	12	21	20	18	17	21	109
Fairport High School	Adam Strobridge '22	20	19	15	16	22	19	111
Kent Island High School	Corbin Voorhes '21	13	18	23	20	20	20	114
Kent Island High School	Doug Macdonald '19	21	23	21	22	23	22	132
Mercy High School	Clementine Matzky '21	22	22	22	23	21	23	133

Boat Speed Analyzer

Division A

	Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
	Fordham Preparatory School Fordham Preparatory	209380	209380	209380	209380	209380	209380

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 23 boats · 6 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Cameron Giblin '19	Ranney School Panthers 1	6/6	3.19	5.52	+2.33	99th → 99th	6.3	0%	1.8 / 6.3
2	Luke Arnone '19	Ranney School Panthers 2	6/6	3.33	4.09	+0.76	99th → 99th	1.0	16%	3.2 / 6.1
3	Michael Pinto '19	St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 1	6/6	1.17	3.47	+2.30	64th → 99th	7.9	1%	5.0 / 12.6
4	Ryan Ehnot '22	Christian Brothers Academy	6/6	2.04	3.27	+1.24	83rd → 99th	2.8	10%	5.3 / 9.8
5	Tom Green '19	Southern Regional High School	6/6	2.19	2.99	+0.80	86th → 98th	1.3	17%	5.8 / 9.5
6	Jack Mckenna '20	Poquoson High School	6/6	1.74	2.81	+1.07	79th → 96th	2.2	14%	6.5 / 10.6
7	Lauren Ehnot '20	Trinity Hall	6/6	1.81	2.56	+0.75	80th → 92nd	1.1	12%	6.8 / 10.4
8	Colman Schofield '21	Yorktown	6/6	2.23	1.83	−0.40	87th → 81st	0.4	64%	10.2 / 9.2
9	Alexa Shea '21	Rye Country Day School	6/6	1.16^u	1.72	+0.56	64th → 79th	0.7	31%	10.5 / 12.6
10	Brooke Schmelz '21	Ranney School Panthers 3	6/6	1.63	1.65	+0.02	76th → 76th	0.0	54%	11.2 / 11.0
10	Patrick Modin '19	Marine Academy of Science and Technology	6/6	1.49	1.62	+0.13	73rd → 76th	0.0	49%	11.2 / 11.5
13	Francesca Edmands '21	The Brearley School	6/6	1.12^u	0.95	−0.17	61st → 57th	0.1	56%	13.2 / 12.7
14	Owen Himsworth '22	The Stony Brook School	6/6	0.30	1.17	+0.87	30th → 64th	1.6	35%	13.8 / 15.1
14	Patrick Dolan '21	Severn School	6/6	2.02	0.84	−1.17	83rd → 51st	4.2	86%	13.8 / 9.8
16	Zachary York '20	St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 2	6/6	1.02	1.16	+0.14	58th → 63rd	0.0	62%	14.0 / 12.8
17	Madeline Saffer '20	Rye High School	6/6	1.32	0.94	−0.38	67th → 56th	0.4	72%	14.2 / 12.1
18	Patrick York '20	St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 3	6/6	0.61	0.64	+0.02	43rd → 43rd	0.0	74%	16.8 / 14.3
19	Matthew Lyons '19	Hilton Central	6/6	0.97^u	0.11	−0.86	57th → 25th	2.1	91%	18.2 / 13.2
20	Adam Strobridge '22	Fairport High School	6/6	-0.39	0.10	+0.49	13th → 24th	0.5	62%	18.5 / 17.2
21	Corbin Voorhes '21	Kent Island High School Buccaneers 1	6/6	0.54	-0.33	−0.87	40th → 14th	1.8	91%	19.0 / 14.3
22	Doug Macdonald '19	Kent Island High School Buccaneers 2	6/6	0.34	-1.62	−1.97	32nd → 1st	8.9	99%	22.0 / 15.0
23	Clementine Matzky '21	Mercy High School	6/6	-0.65	-1.62	−0.97	8th → 1st	1.5	96%	22.2 / 17.8

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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MASSA Cressy Qualifier Radial

Division A

Division A 23 boats · 6 races

From the notes