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NWISA North Regionals

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Ballard High School Ballard High School Beavers 1 18 10 28
2 Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 2 12 21 33
3 Ingraham High School Ingraham High School Rams 2 11 30 41
4 Nathan Hale High School Nathan Hale High School Raiders 31 22 53
5 Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1 40 21 61
6 Garfield High School Garfield High School Bulldogs 33 32 65
7 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 3 29 48 77
8 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 1 26 55 81
9 Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 2 53 34 87
10 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 4 55 44 99
11 Ballard High School Ballard High School Beavers 2 46 55 101
12 Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 1 45 71 116
13 Storm Storm Storm 72 52 124
14 Anacortes High School Anacortes High School Seahawks 71 54 125
15 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 2 63 71 134
16 Ingraham High School Ingraham High School Rams 1 75 60 135
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Ingraham High School Ingraham High School Rams 2 1 6 1 1 2 11 Maks Groom '20
Duncan Weiner '20
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 2 2 1 3 3 3 12 Miles Williams '20
Colin Baker '21
Ballard High School Ballard High School Beavers 1 5 2 2 2 7 18 Erik Anderson '21 [1-4]
Seth Aldrich '21 [5]
Coleman Barnes '23 [1-4]
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 1 4 3 7 6 6 26 Cedric Keneipp '22
Tristan Neinaber '22
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 3 8 5 8 4 4 29 Emma Powell '22
Nathan Hale High School Nathan Hale High School Raiders 7 4 6 5 9 31 Zoe Plattner '20
Ray Mcdavid '22
Garfield High School Garfield High School Bulldogs 11 7 4 10 1 33 Emilia Garcia-Bompadre '19
Aidan Kemper '19
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1 3 8 10 11 8 40 Van Senseney '19 [1-2, 5]
Jessica Reeves '20 [3-4]
Jessica Reeves '20 [1-2, 5]
Van Senseney '19 [3-4]
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 1 6 11 11 12 5 45 Jack Knowles '22
Ballard High School Ballard High School Beavers 2 9 9 5 9 14 46 Atlas Iverson '22
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 2 13 10 13 7 10 53
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 4 12 14 9 8 12 55 Max Case '22
Max Scofidio '22
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 2 10 12 12 13 16 63 Casey Malone '22
Anacortes High School Anacortes High School Seahawks 15 13 16 16 11 71 Carson Lindholm '20 [1-2, 5]
Olivia Schwartz '21 [3-4]
William Peters '25 [1-2, 5]
Carson Lindholm '20 [3-4]
Storm Storm Storm 14 15 15 15 13 72
Ingraham High School Ingraham High School Rams 1 16 16 14 14 15 75 Alex Hubbard '19
Matthew Lindburg '21
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Ballard High School Ballard High School Beavers 1 1 4 1 3 1 10 Catie Vandervort '22
Caroline Lochner '22
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 2 2 3 3 5 8 21 Abbie Chipps '21
Kyla Greenstein '21
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1 5 8 2 4 2 21 Lucien Freemesser '23
Advik Eswaran '23
Nathan Hale High School Nathan Hale High School Raiders 4 6 4 1 7 22 Danny Juan '23
Aurick Suess '22
Ingraham High School Ingraham High School Rams 2 3 1 8 14 4 30 Kira Blumhagen '21
Everett Rendon '21
Garfield High School Garfield High School Bulldogs 6 5 6 10 5 32 Colin Olson '22
Soren Althoff '22
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 2 9 7 5 7 6 34
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 4 8 15 16 2 3 44 Max Case '22
Max Scofidio '22
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 3 13 12 7 6 10 48 Emma Powell '22
Storm Storm Storm 12 9 12 8 11 52
Anacortes High School Anacortes High School Seahawks 10 2 15 15 12 54 Robert Mccarroll '22 [1-5]
Olivia Schwartz '21 [1-2]
William Peters '25 [3-4]
Carson Lindholm '20 [5]
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 1 7 13 10 12 13 55 Artemisia Wangler '22
No Show
Ballard High School Ballard High School Beavers 2 11 10 11 9 14 55 Seth Aldrich '21
Ingraham High School Ingraham High School Rams 1 15 11 14 11 9 60 Spencer Hulsman-Wells '19
Kaia Armas '21
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 1 14 16 9 16 16 71 Jack Knowles '22
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 2 16 14 13 13 15 71 Dillon Baijot '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Anacortes High SchoolAnacortes High School Seahawks98987
Ballard High SchoolBallard High School Beavers 17750
Ballard High SchoolBallard High School Beavers 277505051
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Raiders 15050515199
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Raiders 251519999100
Garfield High SchoolGarfield High School Bulldogs99991001008
Ingraham High SchoolIngraham High School Rams 1100100889
Ingraham High SchoolIngraham High School Rams 288998
Nathan Hale High SchoolNathan Hale High School Raiders99887
Roosevelt High SchoolRoosevelt High School Rough Riders 1887752
Roosevelt High SchoolRoosevelt High School Rough Riders 277525253
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 15252535354
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 25353545455
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 35454555556
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 45555565698
StormStorm Storm56569898

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Anacortes High SchoolAnacortes High School Seahawks99887
Ballard High SchoolBallard High School Beavers 1887752
Ballard High SchoolBallard High School Beavers 277525253
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Raiders 15252535354
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Raiders 25353545455
Garfield High SchoolGarfield High School Bulldogs5454555556
Ingraham High SchoolIngraham High School Rams 15555565698
Ingraham High SchoolIngraham High School Rams 256569898
Nathan Hale High SchoolNathan Hale High School Raiders98987
Roosevelt High SchoolRoosevelt High School Rough Riders 17750
Roosevelt High SchoolRoosevelt High School Rough Riders 277505051
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 15050515199
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 251519999100
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 399991001008
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners 4100100889
StormStorm Storm88998
School / Team SkipperCrew
Anacortes High School Anacortes High School Carson Lindholm '20 [1-2, 5]
Olivia Schwartz '21 [3-4]		 William Peters '25 [1-2, 5]
Carson Lindholm '20 [3-4]
Seahawks Robert Mccarroll '22 [1-5] Olivia Schwartz '21 [1-2]
William Peters '25 [3-4]
Carson Lindholm '20 [5]
Ballard High School Ballard High School Erik Anderson '21 [1-4]
Seth Aldrich '21 [5]		 Coleman Barnes '23 [1-4]
Beavers 1 Catie Vandervort '22 Caroline Lochner '22
Ballard High School Ballard High School Atlas Iverson '22
Beavers 2 Seth Aldrich '21
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Jack Knowles '22
Raiders 1 Jack Knowles '22
Garfield High School Garfield High School Emilia Garcia-Bompadre '19 Aidan Kemper '19
Bulldogs Colin Olson '22 Soren Althoff '22
Ingraham High School Ingraham High School Alex Hubbard '19 Matthew Lindburg '21
Rams 1 Spencer Hulsman-Wells '19 Kaia Armas '21
Ingraham High School Ingraham High School Maks Groom '20 Duncan Weiner '20
Rams 2 Kira Blumhagen '21 Everett Rendon '21
Nathan Hale High School Nathan Hale High School Zoe Plattner '20 Ray Mcdavid '22
Raiders Danny Juan '23 Aurick Suess '22
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Van Senseney '19 [1-2, 5]
Jessica Reeves '20 [3-4]		 Jessica Reeves '20 [1-2, 5]
Van Senseney '19 [3-4]
Rough Riders 1 Lucien Freemesser '23 Advik Eswaran '23
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Miles Williams '20 Colin Baker '21
Rough Riders 2 Abbie Chipps '21 Kyla Greenstein '21
Sehome High School Sehome High School Cedric Keneipp '22 Tristan Neinaber '22
Mariners 1 Artemisia Wangler '22 No Show
Sehome High School Sehome High School Casey Malone '22
Mariners 2 Dillon Baijot '22
Sehome High School Sehome High School Emma Powell '22
Mariners 3 Emma Powell '22
Sehome High School Sehome High School Max Case '22 Max Scofidio '22
Mariners 4 Max Case '22 Max Scofidio '22

Conditions — 10/06/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 78%  ·  Pressure 1020.5 hPa

Temperature

51°F
↑ 56°F   ↓ 43°F
Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.1 kn
avg  ·  max 5.3 kn
Gusts to 14.6 kn
From WNW (298°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover34% Sunshine10.3 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1020.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Bellingham: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.39 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bellingham by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Bellingham, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →