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PCISA Single-handed Radial Championship

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Marcus Huttunen '20 1 1 3 3 1 1 2 1 2 4 1 20
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Diego Escobar '20 2 3 1 1 5 3 3 2 1 1 5 27
Redwood High School Redwood High School Nicholas Sessions '20 6 2 2 2 4 2 1 4 3 2 2 30
Palos Verdes High School Palos Verdes High School Gavin Mcjones '19 4 4 5 4 2 4 4 3 4 3 3 40
Miramonte High School Miramonte High School Will Foox '20 7 7 4 6 3 7 5 5 7 5 6 62
Fairview High School Fairview High School Cameron Holland '19 5 5 6 7 7 8 10 6 6 6 7 73
Corona del Mar High School Corona del Mar High School David Wood '19 3 9 13 8 6 6 6 10 5 7 4 77
Foothill Technology H.S. Foothill Technology H.S. Annika Fedde '19 9 8 8 5 9 11 7 7 8 9 10 91
Corona del Mar High School Corona del Mar High School Max Mayol '19 10 6 7 10 8 9 9 9 10 10 8 96
Redwood High School Redwood High School Sarah Young '20 8 10 10 11 10 10 8 8 9 8 9 101
Eureka School of Santa Barbara Eureka School of Santa Barbara Payne Donaldson '19 11 11 9 12 11 5 11 11 15 11 11 118
The Bishop's School The Bishop's School John Majernik '20 12 12 12 9 14 14 12 13 11 12 12 133
Newport Harbor High School Newport Harbor High School Erik Hou '20 13 13 11 14 12 12 14 12 13 14 13 141
International HS - San Francisco, CA International HS - San Francisco, CA Benjamin Stevens '21 14 14 15 13 13 13 15 14 12 13 14 150
Newport Harbor High School Newport Harbor High School Andrew Ingham '21 15 16 14 15 16 15 13 15 14 15 17 165
Newport Harbor High School Newport Harbor High School Jack Flores '20 16 15 16 16 15 16 16 17 16 16 15 174
Corona del Mar High School Corona del Mar High School Nathan Sih '21 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 16 19 17 16 187
Ernest J. McBride Ernest J. McBride Tristan Feves '22 18 19 19 18 18 18 19 19 18 19 18 203
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Sara Parker '21 19 18 18 DNF DNS DNS 18 18 17 18 19 205

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  19 boats · 11 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Marcus Huttunen '20Point Loma High School Pointers 111/112.566.02+3.4692nd → 99th22.9<1%1.8 / 8.6
2Diego Escobar '20Point Loma High School Pointers 211/113.105.20+2.1099th → 99th11.0<1%2.5 / 7.1
3Nicholas Sessions '20Redwood High School Giants 111/113.244.97+1.7399th → 99th8.0<1%2.7 / 6.7
4Gavin Mcjones '19Palos Verdes High School11/113.034.42+1.3998th → 99th5.82%3.6 / 7.2
5Will Foox '20Miramonte High School11/112.233.60+1.3887th → 99th6.27%5.6 / 9.6
6Cameron Holland '19Fairview High School11/111.43u3.31+1.8871st → 99th10.64%6.6 / 11.6
7David Wood '19Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 211/112.873.00+0.1397th → 98th0.142%7.0 / 7.8
8Annika Fedde '19Foothill Technology H.S.11/111.832.82+1.0081st → 96th3.616%8.3 / 10.5
9Max Mayol '19Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 111/113.132.58−0.5699th → 93rd1.576%8.7 / 7.0
10Sarah Young '20Redwood High School Giants 211/112.532.55+0.0192nd → 92nd0.062%9.2 / 8.6
11Payne Donaldson '19Eureka School of Santa Barbara11/11-0.192.21+2.4016th → 86th16.23%10.7 / 15.3
12John Majernik '20The Bishop's School11/112.251.80−0.4587th → 80th1.084%12.1 / 9.3
13Erik Hou '20Newport Harbor High School Sailors 111/112.341.61−0.7389th → 75th2.891%12.8 / 9.2
14Benjamin Stevens '21International HS - San Francisco, CA11/111.641.51−0.1476th → 73rd0.184%13.6 / 11.0
15Andrew Ingham '21Newport Harbor High School Sailors 311/110.681.16+0.4845th → 63rd0.971%15.0 / 13.5
16Jack Flores '20Newport Harbor High School Sailors 211/111.350.89−0.4668th → 54th1.095%15.8 / 11.7
17Nathan Sih '21Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 311/111.750.22−1.5379th → 28th12.8>99%17.0 / 10.7
18Tristan Feves '22Ernest J. McBride11/111.06-1.55−2.6159th → 1st18.0>99%18.5 / 12.5
19Sara Parker '21Point Loma High School Pointers 311/111.29-0.29−1.5867th → 15th8.5>99%18.6 / 11.9

Conditions — 09/22/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1014.3 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 55°F
Feels like 65°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.2 kn
avg  ·  max 6.9 kn
Gusts to 17.3 kn
From SSW (210°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover20% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1014.3 hPa

What this breeze does at Redwood — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Redwood in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Redwood by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Redwood: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →