Navigate

Raritan Tuesday Series 10-16-18

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 9 9
2 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 11 11
3 Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 2 12 12
4 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 19 19
5 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 20 20
6 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 7 27 27
7 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 29 29
8 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 32 32
9 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 35 35
10 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 1 36 36
11 Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 3 46 46
12 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 47 47
13 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 3 60 60
14 Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 1 60 60
15 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 61 61
16 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 62 62
17 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 64 64
18 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 2 66 66
19 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 6 68 68
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 4 2 2 1 9 Mack Totman '19
Luke Browne '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 3 5 1 2 11 Hannah Mercurio '20
Mia Chmelar '19
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 2 2 1 5 4 12 Caroline Maher '21
Anna Schwartz '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 1 9 3 6 19 Sean Groskoph '20
Malcolm Harrison '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 6 3 4 7 20 Sophie Lusty '20
Chris Disibio '21
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 7 8 4 10 5 27 Evan Hybl '19
Liz Colao '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 9 6 6 8 29 Quinn Collins '21 [1-4]
Peter Tully '21 [1-2]
Michael Ahern '21 [3-4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 5 11 13 3 32 Luke Duplessis '20
Zoe Papier '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 10 8 8 9 35 Patrick Murray '19
Jack Greengrass '22
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 1 7 7 9 13 36 Kevin Tang '19
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 3 13 14 7 12 46 Celia Peri '20
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 11 10 12 14 47 Paul Danenberg '19
Jake Simonetti '21
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 3 12 13 18 17 60
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 1 18 DNF 11 11 60
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 14 15 16 16 61 Paige Lubrano '22
Annika Neumann-Loreck '21
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 17 18 17 10 62
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 15 17 14 18 64 Ryan Mayes '19
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 2 DNF 16 15 15 66
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 6 16 12 DNF DNF 68 Marshall Hong '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.150+0.15
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (30 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 11111
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 24444
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 35555
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 46666
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 58888
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 69999
Oak Knoll SchoolOak Knoll School Royals 111111111
Oak Knoll SchoolOak Knoll School Royals 215151515
Oak Knoll SchoolOak Knoll School Royals 318181818
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers 12222
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers 27777
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers 312121212
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 17777
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 210101010
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 312121212
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 413131313
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 514141414
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 616161616
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 717171717
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 Luke Duplessis '20 Zoe Papier '19
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 Ryan Mayes '19
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 Paige Lubrano '22 Annika Neumann-Loreck '21
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 Paul Danenberg '19 Jake Simonetti '21
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 6 Marshall Hong '21
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 2 Caroline Maher '21 Anna Schwartz '20
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 3 Celia Peri '20
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 1 Kevin Tang '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 Patrick Murray '19 Jack Greengrass '22
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 Hannah Mercurio '20 Mia Chmelar '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 Mack Totman '19 Luke Browne '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 Sean Groskoph '20 Malcolm Harrison '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 Quinn Collins '21 [1-4] Peter Tully '21 [1-2]
Michael Ahern '21 [3-4]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 Sophie Lusty '20 Chris Disibio '21
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 7 Evan Hybl '19 Liz Colao '19

Conditions — 10/16/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 48%  ·  Pressure 1020.0 hPa

Temperature

51°F
↑ 55°F   ↓ 44°F
Feels like 44°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.3 kn
avg  ·  max 7.4 kn
Gusts to 17.9 kn
From W (277°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity48% Pressure1020.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Summit: a typical day (+0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.20 ± 0.24)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →