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Raritan Tuesday Series 10-2-18

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 9 9
2 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 7 16 16
3 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 17 17
4 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 24 24
5 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 26 26
6 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 29 29
7 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 40 40
8 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 46 46
9 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 47 47
10 Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 2 52 52
11 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 54 54
12 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 4 59 59
13 Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 3 65 65
14 Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 1 71 71
15 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 6 74 74
16 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 3 79 79
17 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 81 81
18 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 81 81
19 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 2 93 93
20 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 1 96 96
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 1 1 1 1 5 9 Sophie Lusty '20
Mia Chmelar '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 7 4 4 3 3 2 16 Evan Hybl '19
Chris Disibio '21
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 7 2 5 2 1 17 Sean Groskoph '20
Malcolm Harrison '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 5 3 6 7 3 24 Patrick Murray '19
Jack Greengrass '22
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 8 6 4 4 4 26 Hannah Mercurio '20
Liz Colao '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 3 5 2 8 11 29 Mack Totman '19
Jack Quinn '20
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 12 7 7 5 9 40 Luke Duplessis '20
Henry Gallagher '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 2 12 14 6 12 46 Quinn Collins '21
Peter Tully '21
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 10 9 12 9 7 47 Paige Lubrano '22
Yumtsokyi Bhum '19
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 2 13 8 11 12 8 52 Anna Schwartz '20
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 9 10 10 11 14 54 Thomas Marino '21
Zoe Papier '19
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 4 DNF 13 9 10 6 59 Kevin Tang '19
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 3 6 19 13 17 10 65 Caroline Maher '21
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 1 16 14 15 13 13 71 Celia Peri '20
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 6 14 DNF 8 16 15 74 Paul Danenberg '19 [1-5]
Stephanie Twentyman '21 [1-2]
Samuel Dempsey '19 [3-5]
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 3 11 11 DNF 18 18 79
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 15 16 17 14 19 81 Ciara Doherty '21
Kacper Bardecki '19
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 17 17 16 15 16 81 Ryan Mcwalters '21 [1-5]
Katie Caviness '21 [1-2]
Owen Durie '22 [3-5]
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 2 DNF 18 18 19 17 93
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 1 DNF 15 19 20 DNS 96
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (30 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 144444
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 255555
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 366666
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 477777
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 588888
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 699999
Oak Knoll SchoolOak Knoll School Royals 199999
Oak Knoll SchoolOak Knoll School Royals 21414141414
Oak Knoll SchoolOak Knoll School Royals 31515151515
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers 111111
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers 222222
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers 333333
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers 41010101010
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 177777
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 21010101010
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 31111111111
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 41212121212
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 51313131313
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 61616161616
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 71717171717
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 Luke Duplessis '20 Henry Gallagher '20
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 Thomas Marino '21 Zoe Papier '19
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 Paige Lubrano '22 Yumtsokyi Bhum '19
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 Ryan Mcwalters '21 [1-5] Katie Caviness '21 [1-2]
Owen Durie '22 [3-5]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 Ciara Doherty '21 Kacper Bardecki '19
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 6 Paul Danenberg '19 [1-5] Stephanie Twentyman '21 [1-2]
Samuel Dempsey '19 [3-5]
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 1 Celia Peri '20
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 2 Anna Schwartz '20
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 3 Caroline Maher '21
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 4 Kevin Tang '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 Patrick Murray '19 Jack Greengrass '22
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 Hannah Mercurio '20 Liz Colao '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 Sophie Lusty '20 Mia Chmelar '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 Mack Totman '19 Jack Quinn '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 Sean Groskoph '20 Malcolm Harrison '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 Quinn Collins '21 Peter Tully '21
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 7 Evan Hybl '19 Chris Disibio '21

Conditions — 10/02/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 81%  ·  Pressure 1019.7 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 76°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.2 kn
avg  ·  max 8.3 kn
Gusts to 21.8 kn
From SSW (207°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover94% Sunshine5.8 hrs Humidity81% Pressure1019.7 hPa Rain0.05 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Summit: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.24 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →