Navigate

SAISA Keelboat Qualifier

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Antilles School Antilles School Hurricanes 12 12
2 Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 17 17
3 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 20 20
4 H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Panthers 21 21
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT
Antilles School Antilles School Hurricanes 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 12
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 2 1 2 4 3 1 4 17
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 4 3 4 1 4 3 1 20
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Panthers 3 4 3 3 1 4 3 21

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 78 ISSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  4 boats · 7 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Christopher Sharpless '19Antilles School7/72.063.22+1.1699th → 99th2.816%1.7 / 2.4
2Heather Kerns '20Shorecrest Preparatory School7/71.752.08+0.3399th → 99th0.242%2.4 / 2.6
3Joey Meagher '20St. Thomas Aquinas High School7/71.531.56+0.0492nd → 94th0.058%2.9 / 2.8
4Connor Nelson '19H. B. Plant High School7/72.351.26−1.0899th → 90th3.392%3.0 / 2.2

Conditions — 10/13/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 47%  ·  Pressure 1013.2 hPa

Temperature

80°F
↑ 86°F   ↓ 69°F
Feels like 81°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.0 kn
avg  ·  max 9.2 kn
Gusts to 17.9 kn
From NNE (33°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover27% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity47% Pressure1013.2 hPa

What this breeze does at Shorecrest Prep — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Shorecrest Prep in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Shorecrest Prep by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Shorecrest Prep, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →