St. Mary's Ryken JV

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 North East River High School North East River High School Road Warriors 4 5 9
2 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 16 16 32
3 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 14 20 34
4 Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 18 21 39
5 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 15 27 42
6 Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 25 32 57
7 Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 32 25 57
8 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 26 32 58
9 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 35 25 60
10 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 34 32 66
11 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 41 29 70
12 Key School Key School Zags 44 40 84
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
North East River High School North East River High School Road Warriors 1 1 1 1 4 Skylor Sweet '22
Lauren O'Neill '20
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 2 5 3 4 14 Corbin Voorhes '21
Mary Macdonald '20
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 4 6 2 3 15 Amy Christopherson '21
Ryleigh Kealy '21
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 3 3 6 RDG 16 Tehya Gaines '21
Hannah Davis '20
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 6 2 4 6 18 Natalie Armedia '22
Eli Perl '20
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 5 8 10 2 25 Robert Mailley '20 [1-4]
Caden Meuller '21 [1-2]
Zach Lighthammer '22 [3-4]
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 8 4 5 9 26 Andrew White '21 [1-4]
Lily Newman '21 [1-2]
Jackson Van Wie '23 [3-4]
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 7 10 8 7 32 Carolyn Wilson '20 [1-2]
Megan Roberts '20 [3-4]
Aiden Snyder '24 [1-2]
Grace Wilson '23 [3-4]
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 10 7 12 5 34 Alex Treff '22
Preston Fitzgerald '22
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 9 9 7 10 35 Peter Morris '23
Jack Devito '24
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 12 12 9 8 41 Campbell Earhart '22 [1-2]
Abigail Cosgrove '22 [3-4]
Alex Howard '22 [1-2]
Cate Kinslow '22 [3-4]
Key School Key School Zags 11 11 11 11 44 James Madison '23
Jacqueline Mednick '22
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
North East River High School North East River High School Road Warriors 2 1 1 1 5 Morgan Essex '19
Ellie Sekowski '19
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 3 3 5 5 16 Bay Macquilliam '21
Kyle Edwards '20
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 9 6 3 2 20 Eric Seiler '20 [1-2]
Doug Macdonald '19 [3-4]
Evan Wackowski '22 [1-2]
Scott Carlsen '20 [3-4]
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 7 4 2 8 21 Thomas Leggett '22
Spencer Gaus '22
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 4 5 7 9 25 Julia Sullivan '22
Macy Mccombs '19
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 11 2 6 6 25 Perrin Hupp '20 [1-2]
Derick Fahnestock '22 [3-4]
Will Ehrmantraut '23 [1-2]
John Kollar '24 [3-4]
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 10 10 4 3 27 Alexander Harkowa '21 [1-2]
Joshua Sambrano '22 [3-4]
Joshua Sambrano '22 [1-2]
Alexander Harkowa '21 [3-4]
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 1 7 10 11 29 Brady Kinslow '20 [1-2]
Kaitlyn Lamb '22 [3-4]
Kaitlyn Brouillette '20 [1-2]
Alyssa Johnson '22 [3-4]
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 5 9 11 7 32 Paul Speca '22 [1-4]
Tyler Hughes '22 [1-2]
Lily Newman '21 [3-4]
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 6 RDG 8 10 32 Deniz Ayhan '24
Alex Mcelwee '22
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 8 11 9 4 32 Ryan Wood '22
Pierce Rizzo '22
Key School Key School Zags 12 8 RDG RDG 40 Sam Rodilosso '21
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers1133
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron2244
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins3355
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets4466
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers5577
Key SchoolKey School Zags6688
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders7799
North East River High SchoolNorth East River High School Road Warriors881010
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers991111
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres10101212
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights111111
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Varsity121222

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers2244
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron3355
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins4466
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets5577
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers6688
Key SchoolKey School Zags7799
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders881010
North East River High SchoolNorth East River High School Road Warriors991111
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers10101212
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres111111
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights121222
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Varsity1133
School / Team SkipperCrew
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Alex Treff '22 Preston Fitzgerald '22
Cavaliers Ryan Wood '22 Pierce Rizzo '22
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Natalie Armedia '22 Eli Perl '20
Battlin' Baron Thomas Leggett '22 Spencer Gaus '22
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Andrew White '21 [1-4] Lily Newman '21 [1-2]
Jackson Van Wie '23 [3-4]
Bruins Paul Speca '22 [1-4] Tyler Hughes '22 [1-2]
Lily Newman '21 [3-4]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Peter Morris '23 Jack Devito '24
Hornets Julia Sullivan '22 Macy Mccombs '19
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Corbin Voorhes '21 Mary Macdonald '20
Buccaneers Eric Seiler '20 [1-2]
Doug Macdonald '19 [3-4]
Evan Wackowski '22 [1-2]
Scott Carlsen '20 [3-4]
Key School Key School James Madison '23 Jacqueline Mednick '22
Zags Sam Rodilosso '21 No Show
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Tehya Gaines '21 Hannah Davis '20
Raiders Bay Macquilliam '21 Kyle Edwards '20
North East River High School North East River High School Skylor Sweet '22 Lauren O'Neill '20
Road Warriors Morgan Essex '19 Ellie Sekowski '19
Patuxent Patuxent Carolyn Wilson '20 [1-2]
Megan Roberts '20 [3-4]
Aiden Snyder '24 [1-2]
Grace Wilson '23 [3-4]
Panthers Perrin Hupp '20 [1-2]
Derick Fahnestock '22 [3-4]
Will Ehrmantraut '23 [1-2]
John Kollar '24 [3-4]
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Campbell Earhart '22 [1-2]
Abigail Cosgrove '22 [3-4]
Alex Howard '22 [1-2]
Cate Kinslow '22 [3-4]
Knights Brady Kinslow '20 [1-2]
Kaitlyn Lamb '22 [3-4]
Kaitlyn Brouillette '20 [1-2]
Alyssa Johnson '22 [3-4]
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Amy Christopherson '21 Ryleigh Kealy '21
Sabres Alexander Harkowa '21 [1-2]
Joshua Sambrano '22 [3-4]
Joshua Sambrano '22 [1-2]
Alexander Harkowa '21 [3-4]
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Robert Mailley '20 [1-4] Caden Meuller '21 [1-2]
Zach Lighthammer '22 [3-4]
Varsity Deniz Ayhan '24 Alex Mcelwee '22

Conditions — 09/30/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1026.9 hPa

Temperature

71°F
↑ 75°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 73°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.7 kn
avg  ·  max 4.8 kn
Gusts to 12.2 kn
From ESE (118°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover12% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1026.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Mary's Ryken Waterfront: a typical day (+0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.15
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.70 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's Ryken Waterfront by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at St. Mary's Ryken Waterfront: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →