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MDISA BCSC 2019 Fall JV High School Fleet Race 1

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Severn School Severn School Admirals 11 7 18
2 St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 12 6 18
3 North East River High School North East River High School Road Warriors 9 17 26
4 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 26 25 51
5 Greyhounds Greyhounds Greyhounds 37 25 62
6 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 42 28 70
7 Key School Key School Zags 30 56 86
8 Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 40 49 89
9 Pirates Pirates Pirates 65 26 91
10 Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 64 28 92
11 Gunston Gunston Herons 48 56 104
12 Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 58 46 104
13 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 68 37 105
14 Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 70 48 118
15 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 51 68 119
16 Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 78 41 119
17 Generals Generals Generals 71 56 127
18 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 70 65 135
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
North East River High School North East River High School Road Warriors 3 1 2 2 1 9 Skylor Sweet '22
Isabella Webb '21
Severn School Severn School Admirals 1 2 4 1 3 11 Kyle Reinecke '23
Chase O'Malley '22
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 2 3 1 4 2 12 Andrew Tollefson '22 [1-5]
Mary Nolan '22 [1, 5]
Edward Herman '24 [2-4]
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 5 5 6 5 5 26 Michael Hinrichs '22
Tilghman Davis '23
Key School Key School Zags 4 4 RDG 6 10 30 Marco Welch '24
Zipei Zheng '22
Greyhounds Greyhounds Greyhounds 6 12 3 3 13 37
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 8 11 5 10 6 40 Josiah Chase '23
Emma Williams '23
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 7 6 10 11 8 42 Jackson Park '22 [1-2, 5]
Stephen Ruffennach '20 [3-4]
Noah Wigglesworth '22 [1-2, 5]
Thomas Moulden '20 [3-4]
Gunston Gunston Herons 11 7 9 12 9 48 Julia Buchanan '23 [1-2, 4-5]
Helen Boone '21 [3]
Yaxin Lin '23 [1-2, 4-5]
Hannah Worth '21 [3]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 13 9 7 7 15 51 Julia Sullivan '22 [1-5]
Sophie Dorey '21 [1-2]
Claire Sullivan '25 [3-5]
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 12 8 15 16 7 58 Zach Hammel '21
Lucas Alpert '23
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 16 18 17 9 4 64 Alex Rudick '23
Simon Ringler '23
Pirates Pirates Pirates 10 10 13 18 14 65
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 15 16 18 8 11 68 Douglass Abbott '23
Leah Macquilliam '23
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 9 17 12 15 17 70 Malcolm 'Cal' Morris-Berlin '22
Olivia Boucher '21
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 18 15 8 17 12 70 Quinn Domanski '23 [1-5]
Clive Saunders '24 [1-2, 5]
Lili Taber '22 [3-4]
Generals Generals Generals 14 13 14 14 16 71
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 17 14 16 13 18 78 Caroline Odell '23 [1-2]
James "Jack" Johnson '22 [3-5]
Emma Workmaster '22 [1-2, 5]
Caroline Odell '23 [3-4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R5 TOT Sailors
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints 1 1 2 2 6 Ava Cornell '24
Lucy Duckett '22
Severn School Severn School Admirals 2 3 1 1 7 Jack O'Donnell '21
Chris Sixbey '22
North East River High School North East River High School Road Warriors 3 5 3 6 17 Lilliana Webb '23
Jake Crandall '23
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 4 2 5 14 25 Seamus Seerey '20
Preston Fitzgerald '22
Greyhounds Greyhounds Greyhounds 6 8 6 5 25
Pirates Pirates Pirates 9 9 4 4 26
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron 5 7 7 9 28 Nat Bonham '24
Saskia Mahar-Piersma '23
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 7 6 8 7 28 Aliya Berger '20
Catherine Valentino '22
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 8 16 10 3 37 David Abbott '23
Timothy Berman '23
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 12 4 9 16 41 Siobhan Kearns '24 [1-3, 5]
Indyra Kirvelaitis '21 [1-3]
Caroline Odell '23 [5]
Severna Park Severna Park Falcons 11 10 14 11 46 Johnny Riganati '23
Ben Howard '22
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 14 12 12 10 48 Anthony Thonnard '22
Riley Souder '22
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 10 13 13 13 49 Henry Meyer '25
Connor Lawrence '22
Key School Key School Zags 13 15 16 12 56 Andrew Baker '24
Marissa Loftus '22
Generals Generals Generals 15 11 15 15 56
Gunston Gunston Herons 17 14 17 8 56 Ian Kissel '23 [1-2, 5]
Severin Schut '21 [3]
Laim Thomas '23 [1-2, 5]
Charles Shifrin '21 [3]
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 18 18 11 18 65 Abby Fisher '22 [1-3, 5]
Anabel Chambers '24 [1-3]
Madeline Fisher '23 [5]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 16 17 18 17 68 Sophie Dorey '21
Reed Carey '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers11335
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers22446
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron33557
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins44668
GreyhoundsGreyhounds Greyhounds55779
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets668810
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles88101012
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers99111113
Key SchoolKey School Zags1010121214
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders1111131315
North East River High SchoolNorth East River High School Road Warriors1212141416
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals1313151517
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons1414161618
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints151517171
GunstonGunston Herons779911
GeneralsGenerals Generals161618182
PiratesPirates Pirates1717113
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Varsity1818224

Division B

Team1B2B3B5B
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers2246
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers3357
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HSBethesda - Chevy Chase HS Battlin' Baron4468
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins5579
GreyhoundsGreyhounds Greyhounds66810
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets77911
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles991113
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers10101214
Key SchoolKey School Zags11111315
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders12121416
North East River High SchoolNorth East River High School Road Warriors13131517
Severn SchoolSevern School Admirals14141618
Severna ParkSeverna Park Falcons1515171
St. Mary's High School (MD)St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints1616182
GunstonGunston Herons881012
GeneralsGenerals Generals171713
PiratesPirates Pirates181824
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Varsity1135
School / Team SkipperCrew
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Josiah Chase '23 Emma Williams '23
Panthers Henry Meyer '25 Connor Lawrence '22
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Michael Hinrichs '22 Tilghman Davis '23
Cavaliers Seamus Seerey '20 Preston Fitzgerald '22
Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Bethesda - Chevy Chase HS Alex Rudick '23 Simon Ringler '23
Battlin' Baron Nat Bonham '24 Saskia Mahar-Piersma '23
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Quinn Domanski '23 [1-5] Clive Saunders '24 [1-2, 5]
Lili Taber '22 [3-4]
Bruins Abby Fisher '22 [1-3, 5] Anabel Chambers '24 [1-3]
Madeline Fisher '23 [5]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Julia Sullivan '22 [1-5] Sophie Dorey '21 [1-2]
Claire Sullivan '25 [3-5]
Hornets Sophie Dorey '21 Reed Carey '25
Gunston Gunston Julia Buchanan '23 [1-2, 4-5]
Helen Boone '21 [3]		 Yaxin Lin '23 [1-2, 4-5]
Hannah Worth '21 [3]
Herons Ian Kissel '23 [1-2, 5]
Severin Schut '21 [3]		 Laim Thomas '23 [1-2, 5]
Charles Shifrin '21 [3]
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Malcolm 'Cal' Morris-Berlin '22 Olivia Boucher '21
Eagles Anthony Thonnard '22 Riley Souder '22
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Jackson Park '22 [1-2, 5]
Stephen Ruffennach '20 [3-4]		 Noah Wigglesworth '22 [1-2, 5]
Thomas Moulden '20 [3-4]
Buccaneers Aliya Berger '20 Catherine Valentino '22
Key School Key School Marco Welch '24 Zipei Zheng '22
Zags Andrew Baker '24 Marissa Loftus '22
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Douglass Abbott '23 Leah Macquilliam '23
Raiders David Abbott '23 Timothy Berman '23
North East River High School North East River High School Skylor Sweet '22 Isabella Webb '21
Road Warriors Lilliana Webb '23 Jake Crandall '23
Severn School Severn School Kyle Reinecke '23 Chase O'Malley '22
Admirals Jack O'Donnell '21 Chris Sixbey '22
Severna Park Severna Park Zach Hammel '21 Lucas Alpert '23
Falcons Johnny Riganati '23 Ben Howard '22
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) Andrew Tollefson '22 [1-5] Mary Nolan '22 [1, 5]
Edward Herman '24 [2-4]
Saints Ava Cornell '24 Lucy Duckett '22
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Caroline Odell '23 [1-2]
James "Jack" Johnson '22 [3-5]		 Emma Workmaster '22 [1-2, 5]
Caroline Odell '23 [3-4]
Varsity Siobhan Kearns '24 [1-3, 5] Indyra Kirvelaitis '21 [1-3]
Caroline Odell '23 [5]

Conditions — 09/22/2019 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 62%  ·  Pressure 1019.8 hPa

Temperature

81°F
↑ 85°F   ↓ 68°F
Feels like 85°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.3 kn
avg  ·  max 5.7 kn
Gusts to 14.6 kn
From SE (139°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover22% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1019.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Gilman/Towson: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.09
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.16 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Gilman/Towson by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Gilman/Towson, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →