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2019 LTHS Fall Classic

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 2 18 18
2 Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 1 23 23
3 West Lake High School (TX) West Lake High School (TX) Chaparrals 38 38
4 Sterling Classical School Sterling Classical School Soldiers 39 39
5 Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 2 42 42
6 Rockwall-Heath High School Rockwall-Heath High School Rockwall-Heath 47 47
7 Lutheran South Academy Lutheran South Academy Varsity 51 51
8 Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 1 60 60
9 Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 3 73 73
10 Unregistered-SEISA Unregistered-SEISA SEISA 82 82
11 Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 3 83 83
12 Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 4 115 115
13 Vandegrift High School Vandegrift High School Vandegrift 116 116
14 Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 4 128 128
15 Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 5 128 128
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 2 4 2 2 3 1 3 2 1 18 James Brock '24
Vivian Heitkoetter '23
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 1 1 7 1 2 6 1 3 2 23 Ava Anderson '23
Korbin Bendele '25
West Lake High School (TX) West Lake High School (TX) Chaparrals 7 4 7 6 2 5 4 3 38 Eric Jayawant '23
Annie Stockli '23
Sterling Classical School Sterling Classical School Soldiers 6 5 6 5 3 4 6 4 39 Catherine Froelich '25
Fiona Froelich '23
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 2 5 6 5 8 5 6 1 6 42 Kailey Warrior '23 [1-8]
Olivia Espiritu '21 [1-2, 5-8]
Mya Snuggs '21 [3-4]
Rockwall-Heath High School Rockwall-Heath High School Rockwall-Heath 2 8 9 4 7 7 5 5 47 Aston Atherton '22
Andrew Hempker '21
Lutheran South Academy Lutheran South Academy Varsity 3 1 3 1 9 2 DNS DNS 51 Stephen Momeier '23
Noah Roberts '23
Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 1 9 9 8 7 4 8 8 7 60 Kate Hennig '23
Julia Doyle '23
Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 3 8 3 4 9 8 9 DNS DNS 73 Jake Mitro '23
Brady Reid '23
Unregistered-SEISA Unregistered-SEISA SEISA 10 11 10 10 12 11 9 9 82 Max Ross '20
Grace Vaughn '21
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 3 DNF 10 11 11 10 10 7 8 83 Ethan Skelton '23 [1-8]
Truman Bright '23 [1-6]
Mya Snuggs '21 [7-8]
Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 4 DNF DNF 12 12 11 DNS DNS DNS 115 Zachary Mueller '23
Colby Greenwood '23
Vandegrift High School Vandegrift High School Vandegrift DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 10 10 116 No Show
No Show
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 4 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 128 No Show
No Show
Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 5 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 128 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights 111224466
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights 222446677
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights 344667788
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights 466778899
Lake Travis High SchoolLake Travis High School Cavaliers 17788991010
Lake Travis High SchoolLake Travis High School Cavaliers 2889910101111
Lake Travis High SchoolLake Travis High School Cavaliers 399101011111212
Lake Travis High SchoolLake Travis High School Cavaliers 41010111112121313
Lake Travis High SchoolLake Travis High School Cavaliers 51111121213131414
Lutheran South AcademyLutheran South Academy Varsity1212131314141616
Rockwall-Heath High SchoolRockwall-Heath High School Rockwall-Heath1313141416161717
Sterling Classical SchoolSterling Classical School Soldiers1414161617171818
Unregistered-SEISAUnregistered-SEISA SEISA16161717181811
Vandegrift High SchoolVandegrift High School Vandegrift171718181122
West Lake High School (TX)West Lake High School (TX) Chaparrals1818112244
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 1 Ava Anderson '23 Korbin Bendele '25
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 2 Kailey Warrior '23 [1-8] Olivia Espiritu '21 [1-2, 5-8]
Mya Snuggs '21 [3-4]
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 3 Ethan Skelton '23 [1-8] Truman Bright '23 [1-6]
Mya Snuggs '21 [7-8]
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 4 No Show No Show
Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 1 Kate Hennig '23 Julia Doyle '23
Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 2 James Brock '24 Vivian Heitkoetter '23
Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 3 Jake Mitro '23 Brady Reid '23
Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 4 Zachary Mueller '23 Colby Greenwood '23
Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 5 No Show No Show
Lutheran South Academy Lutheran South Academy Varsity Stephen Momeier '23 Noah Roberts '23
Rockwall-Heath High School Rockwall-Heath High School Rockwall-Heath Aston Atherton '22 Andrew Hempker '21
Sterling Classical School Sterling Classical School Soldiers Catherine Froelich '25 Fiona Froelich '23
Unregistered-SEISA Unregistered-SEISA SEISA Max Ross '20 Grace Vaughn '21
Vandegrift High School Vandegrift High School Vandegrift No Show No Show
West Lake High School (TX) West Lake High School (TX) Chaparrals Eric Jayawant '23 Annie Stockli '23

Conditions — 10/05/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 47%  ·  Pressure 1014.5 hPa

Temperature

87°F
↑ 93°F   ↓ 71°F
Feels like 90°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.7 kn
avg  ·  max 6.1 kn
Gusts to 15.2 kn
From S (178°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover48% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity47% Pressure1014.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 7 kn · S 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Lake Travis: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.13
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.24 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Lake Travis by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Lake Travis, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →