Cornwell Memorial Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 2 9 11
2 St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School Bears- Varsity 11 2 13
3 St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed 9 7 16
4 Grand Rapids Christian High School Grand Rapids Christian High School Fast Eagles 5 12 17
5 Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School GI Grey - MIXED 9 11 20
6 East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold 16 5 21
7 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 8 17 25
8 Forest Hills Central High School Forest Hills Central High School FHC Rangers 12 19 31
9 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Gold 21 15 36
10 Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School GI White - MIXED 21 19 40
11 Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Varsity Green 25 19 44
12 St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School Bears- Mixed 19 27 46
13 Grand Rapids Christian High School Grand Rapids Christian High School GRC-SC Mixed 27 21 48
SchoolTeam R1 R2 TOT Sailors
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 1 1 2 Noah Robitshek '21
Griffin Wright '21
Grand Rapids Christian High School Grand Rapids Christian High School Fast Eagles 2 3 5 Owen Steger '21
Landon Honeywell '22
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 6 2 8 Bryce Wilmoth '20
Nic Zenner '21
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed 3 6 9 Luke Adams '23
Joe Thuente '20
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School GI Grey - MIXED 4 5 9 Jimmy Souilliere '23
Kassidy Kennedy '22
St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School Bears- Varsity 7 4 11 Emmet Lorenz '25
Eileen Spiegel '20
Forest Hills Central High School Forest Hills Central High School FHC Rangers 5 7 12 Liam Fox '24
Greyson Ripmaster '24
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold 8 8 16 Gavin Vanmanen '23
Noah Sippel '22
St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School Bears- Mixed 9 10 19 Dylan Marzke '20
Jack Hirsh '23
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Gold 10 11 21 Case Brooks '23
Cole Harding '23
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School GI White - MIXED 12 9 21 Gillian Bellard '25
Sydney Porter '24
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Varsity Green 11 OCS 25 Cj Enocksen '24
Lily Edson '24
Grand Rapids Christian High School Grand Rapids Christian High School GRC-SC Mixed 13 OCS 27 Rod Martins '22
Diego Kittinger '24
SchoolTeam R1 R2 TOT Sailors
St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School Bears- Varsity 1 1 2 Tyler Meier '21
Silas Lorenz '23
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold 2 3 5 Jackson Macnaughton '22
Henry Sippel '22
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed 3 4 7 Luke Kleinrichert '20
Maggie Puetz '24
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 7 2 9 Kai Oslund Dolan '20
Abigail Paul '20
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School GI Grey - MIXED 6 5 11 Anna Mcaughey '24
Kellan Knapp '25
Grand Rapids Christian High School Grand Rapids Christian High School Fast Eagles 4 8 12 Ava Van Otteren '22
Olivia Brunink '22
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Gold 5 10 15 Lucas Rodenroth '23
Trey Harding '23
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 11 6 17 Colin Gordon '21
Michael Cyrul '24
Forest Hills Central High School Forest Hills Central High School FHC Rangers 8 11 19 Alexander Hahn '20
Nathaniel Hahn '24
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Varsity Green 10 9 19 Gavin Graetz '24
Grace Vanstratt '23
Grosse Ile High School Grosse Ile High School GI White - MIXED 12 7 19 Norton Coulibaly '23
Eva Ottenbreit '22
Grand Rapids Christian High School Grand Rapids Christian High School GRC-SC Mixed 9 12 21 Alex Boville '22
Anthony Betten '22
St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School Bears- Mixed 13 DSQ 27 Nolan Youngstedt '21
Cole Riedel '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.290+0.29
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold11
Forest Hills Central High SchoolForest Hills Central High School FHC Rangers22
Grand Rapids Christian High SchoolGrand Rapids Christian High School Fast Eagles33
Grand Rapids Christian High SchoolGrand Rapids Christian High School GRC-SC Mixed44
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School GI Grey - MIXED55
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School GI White - MIXED66
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed77
St. Joseph High SchoolSt. Joseph High School Bears- Mixed88
St. Joseph High SchoolSt. Joseph High School Bears- Varsity99
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Mixed1010
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Varsity Black1111
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Varsity Gold1212
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Varsity Green1616

Division B

Team1B2B
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold22
Forest Hills Central High SchoolForest Hills Central High School FHC Rangers33
Grand Rapids Christian High SchoolGrand Rapids Christian High School Fast Eagles44
Grand Rapids Christian High SchoolGrand Rapids Christian High School GRC-SC Mixed55
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School GI Grey - MIXED66
Grosse Ile High SchoolGrosse Ile High School GI White - MIXED77
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed88
St. Joseph High SchoolSt. Joseph High School Bears- Mixed99
St. Joseph High SchoolSt. Joseph High School Bears- Varsity1010
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Mixed1111
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Varsity Black1212
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Varsity Gold1616
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Varsity Green11

Conditions — 10/12/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 47%  ·  Pressure 1010.7 hPa

Temperature

44°F
↑ 46°F   ↓ 41°F
Feels like 31°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
16.0 kn
avg  ·  max 17.5 kn
Gusts to 37.3 kn
From SW (216°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover88% Sunshine6.3 hrs Humidity47% Pressure1010.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 17 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.21
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.62 ± 0.27)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (19 labelled days at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →