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ISSA Cressy National Championship - Full

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT
Crown Leadership Academy Crown Leadership Academy Lucas Sawin '20 1 2 1 2 3 2 4 4 2 2 1 6 1 1 32
Redwood Redwood Nicholas Sessions '20 2 1 3 3 1 17 3 1 5 10 6 2 2 2 58
St. Mary's High School (MD) St. Mary's High School (MD) James Golden '20 7 16 6 6 9 6 7 7 1 4 3 4 3 3 82
Redwood Redwood Caleb Yoslov '21 4 5 5 5 14 4 1 6 4 7 11 5 11 6 88
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Marcus Huttunen '20 11 4 8 4 11 1 8 3 3 1 4 8 6 DSQ 91
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Thad Lettsome '20 6 10 2 7 2 5 2 2 6 8 9 3 RAF 11 92
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Jack Baldwin '22 3 3 7 9 12 3 5 5 7 5 5 10 10 10 94
Key School Key School Charles Anderson '21 5 6 4 1 13 7 10 9 11 3 12 9 5 5 100
Coral Shores High School Coral Shores High School Alex Gonzalez '20 15 8 11 15 5 11 6 8 10 6 2 1 9 9 116
Jones College Prep Jones College Prep Emmett Nevel '21 14 7 10 8 10 8 12 10 13 9 8 7 7 13 136
St. George's School St. George's School Jack Fisher '20 9 12 17 14 4 10 16 14 8 11 7 11 4 4 141
Black River Public School Black River Public School Christopher Heideman '20 12 9 9 10 8 9 11 11 9 12 10 12 17 8 147
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Noah Robitshek '21 8 14 12 12 6 12 15 13 15 18 14 14 8 7 168
Immaculata La Salle High School Immaculata La Salle High School Antonio Miranda '20 10 15 13 11 7 13 14 12 12 16 16 17 15 15 186
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Axel Stordahl '20 13 11 14 13 15 16 13 15 16 13 15 18 13 12 197
Bethesda Chevy-Chase HS Bethesda Chevy-Chase HS Friso Grolleman '20 16 13 15 16 16 14 9 16 14 15 17 15 12 16 204
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Aidan Brown '20 17 18 16 17 17 15 17 17 17 14 13 13 14 14 219
Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Caleb Keister '22 18 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 17 18 16 16 17 245

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  18 boats · 14 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Lucas Sawin '20Crown Leadership Academy14/142.575.41+2.8492nd → 99th22.8<1%2.3 / 8.4
2Nicholas Sessions '20Redwood Giants 114/143.383.58+0.2099th → 99th0.211%4.1 / 6.3
3James Golden '20St. Mary's High School (MD)14/142.603.19+0.5994th → 99th1.512%5.9 / 8.2
4Caleb Yoslov '21Redwood Giants 214/141.993.23+1.2483rd → 99th6.58%6.3 / 9.9
5Marcus Huttunen '20Point Loma High School14/142.803.45+0.6596th → 99th1.828%6.5 / 7.8
6Thad Lettsome '20Tabor Academy14/142.983.40+0.4298th → 99th0.838%6.6 / 7.3
7Jack Baldwin '22Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL14/143.243.04−0.1999th → 98th0.254%6.7 / 6.6
8Charles Anderson '21Key School14/142.552.93+0.3892nd → 98th0.732%7.1 / 8.4
9Alex Gonzalez '20Coral Shores High School14/142.302.48+0.1888th → 92nd0.239%8.3 / 9.1
10Emmett Nevel '21Jones College Prep14/141.802.36+0.5680th → 89th1.638%9.7 / 10.4
11Jack Fisher '20St. George's School14/141.581.92+0.3475th → 82nd0.631%10.1 / 11.1
12Christopher Heideman '20Black River Public School14/142.381.95−0.4390th → 83rd1.074%10.5 / 8.9
13Noah Robitshek '21Traverse City Central14/142.041.47−0.5783rd → 72nd1.881%12.0 / 9.8
14Antonio Miranda '20Immaculata La Salle High School14/141.50u1.34−0.1773rd → 67th0.280%13.3 / 11.2
15Axel Stordahl '20Gig Harbor High School14/142.151.08−1.0885th → 60th7.697%14.1 / 9.5
16Friso Grolleman '20Bethesda Chevy-Chase HS14/141.350.93−0.4168th → 56th1.090%14.6 / 11.5
17Aidan Brown '20Cape Elizabeth High School14/140.870.45−0.4253rd → 35th0.992%15.6 / 12.7
18Caleb Keister '22Jesuit High School, NOLA14/140.35-1.37−1.7232nd → 1st7.999%17.5 / 13.8

Conditions — 11/02/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 13%  ·  Pressure 1017.3 hPa

Temperature

75°F
↑ 82°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.5 kn
avg  ·  max 3.9 kn
Gusts to 14.2 kn
From WSW (247°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover6% Sunshine10.6 hrs Humidity13% Pressure1017.3 hPa

What this breeze does at Santa Barbara Yacht Club — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Santa Barbara Yacht Club in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Santa Barbara Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Santa Barbara Yacht Club: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →