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ISSA Cressy National Championship - Radial

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Nicholas Reeser '21 2 4 2 11 8 1 8 1 5 4 2 2 4 1 55
The Hotchkiss School The Hotchkiss School Chapman Petersen '22 4 2 1 1 5 2 12 4 3 1 1 4 10 5 55
Antilles School Antilles School Mateo Di Blasi '21 8 1 4 3 9 10 2 3 1 5 9 6 11 8 80
Point Loma High School Point Loma High School Diego Escobar '20 3 7 10 2 3 15 11 6 4 6 3 10 12 2 94
Severn School Severn School Robby Meek '23 5 5 DSQ 4 13 3 7 10 14 3 4 9 5 4 105
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Spencer Barnes '20 10 11 5 6 2 7 3 11 10 8 16 5 6 7 107
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Michael Burns '21 16 3 12 8 1 6 1 2 2 13 13 8 13 10 108
Rye High School Rye High School Matthew Wallace '21 6 13 8 9 14 9 13 8 9 12 7 7 3 17 135
Newport Harbor High School Newport Harbor High School Morgan Pinckney '23 9 10 13 15 11 8 16 15 8 2 17 13 1 3 141
Benson Polytechnic High School Benson Polytechnic High School Conrad Miller '21 7 12 15 14 6 12 9 13 15 11 6 17 9 14 160
Highland Park High School - IL Highland Park High School - IL Lawson Levine '20 15 18 16 13 10 4 5 7 7 7 12 15 16 16 161
Brunswick School Brunswick School Leyton Borcherding '21 18 15 14 10 7 16 6 5 6 9 14 18 17 6 161
Severn School Severn School Owen Hennessey '21 14 17 7 18 15 17 4 12 17 10 11 3 7 11 163
Greenwich Academy Greenwich Academy Sofia Debs '24 1 9 6 17 12 11 17 14 11 14 5 16 18 13 164
Novi Novi Michael Kirkman '21 17 8 9 7 4 18 15 18 18 16 8 12 2 15 167
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Javier Garcon '21 13 16 11 16 16 5 10 9 12 17 10 11 15 12 173
Redondo Union High School Redondo Union High School Taft Buckley '21 11 6 3 5 17 14 18 17 16 15 15 14 14 9 174
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Peter Barnard '23 12 14 17 12 DSQ 13 14 16 13 18 18 1 8 18 193

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  18 boats · 14 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Chapman Petersen '22The Hotchkiss School14/143.444.87+1.4399th → 99th7.81%3.9 / 8.0
1Nicholas Reeser '21St. Thomas Aquinas High School14/143.634.88+1.2599th → 99th6.32%3.9 / 7.4
3Mateo Di Blasi '21Antilles School14/142.584.20+1.6293rd → 99th10.41%5.7 / 10.2
4Diego Escobar '20Point Loma High School14/143.663.73+0.0799th → 99th0.040%6.7 / 7.4
5Robby Meek '23Severn School Admirals 114/144.383.74−0.6399th → 99th2.287%7.5 / 5.6
6Spencer Barnes '20St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH14/142.553.63+1.0892nd → 99th5.210%7.6 / 10.4
7Michael Burns '21St. Stanislaus14/142.923.37+0.4598th → 99th1.023%7.7 / 9.3
8Matthew Wallace '21Rye High School14/142.213.14+0.9386th → 99th4.028%9.6 / 11.2
9Morgan Pinckney '23Newport Harbor High School14/143.262.79−0.4799th → 96th1.380%10.1 / 8.4
10Conrad Miller '21Benson Polytechnic High School14/142.122.70+0.5884th → 95th1.749%11.4 / 11.5
11Lawson Levine '20Highland Park High School - IL14/142.112.44+0.3384th → 91st0.547%11.5 / 11.6
11Leyton Borcherding '21Brunswick School14/142.312.22−0.0988th → 87th0.059%11.5 / 11.0
13Owen Hennessey '21Severn School Admirals 214/142.982.29−0.6998th → 88th2.783%11.6 / 9.2
14Sofia Debs '24Greenwich Academy14/141.892.38+0.4981st → 90th1.143%11.7 / 12.0
15Michael Kirkman '21Novi14/142.842.03−0.8196th → 83rd3.481%11.9 / 9.6
16Javier Garcon '21Ransom Everglades School14/143.092.42−0.6799th → 91st2.991%12.4 / 8.9
17Taft Buckley '21Redondo Union High School14/142.232.21−0.0287th → 86th0.067%12.4 / 11.2
18Peter Barnard '23St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL14/143.351.58−1.7899th → 75th17.2>99%13.8 / 8.1

Conditions — 11/02/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 13%  ·  Pressure 1017.3 hPa

Temperature

75°F
↑ 82°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.5 kn
avg  ·  max 3.9 kn
Gusts to 14.2 kn
From WSW (247°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover6% Sunshine10.6 hrs Humidity13% Pressure1017.3 hPa

What this breeze does at Santa Barbara Yacht Club — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Santa Barbara Yacht Club in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Santa Barbara Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Santa Barbara Yacht Club: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →