Last Chance MISSA East

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Black River Public School Black River Public School Varsity 11 8 19
2 Novi Novi Varsity 17 18 35
3 West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 19 20 39
4 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 25 31 56
5 Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Blue 42 17 59
6 Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Varsity Green 27 40 67
7 Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRMS Blue 15 53 68
8 Troy High School Troy High School Colts 38 44 82
9 Olentangy Liberty High School Olentangy Liberty High School Patriots 61 25 86
10 St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Varsity Blue 51 36 87
11 East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold 43 54 97
12 Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 58 47 105
13 Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Maroons 47 63 110
SchoolTeam R1 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Black River Public School Black River Public School Varsity 1 2 1 4 3 11 Christopher Heideman '20
Alden Gort '22
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRMS Blue 2 3 3 2 5 15 Owen Bannasch '22 [1, 3-6]
Madison Paulus '20 [1, 6]
John Riordan '22 [3-5]
Novi Novi Varsity 6 4 5 1 1 17 Michael Kirkman '21
Tristan Whelan '21
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 3 5 6 3 2 19 Matthew Elliott '20
Frank Bachulis '22
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 4 1 4 12 4 25 Noah Robitshek '21
Griffin Wright '21
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Varsity Green 7 7 2 5 6 27 Liam Clone '20
Ella Beck '21
Troy High School Troy High School Colts 5 8 8 6 11 38 Emily Pytell '21
Alexa Warburton '22
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Blue 10 6 10 8 8 42 Charlie Gonzalez '23 [1, 3-6]
Henry Gonzalez '21 [1, 6]
Madison Fan '20 [3-5]
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold 8 10 9 9 7 43 Caroline Grin '21 [1, 3-6]
Elizabeth Grin '23 [1, 6]
Henry Sippel '22 [3-5]
Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Maroons 13 11 7 7 9 47 Greta Traver '23
Kylie Smits '20
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Varsity Blue 11 9 11 10 10 51 Joe Thuente '20
Ryan Schmidt '21
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 9 12 12 13 12 58 Liam Hounsell '23
Dwight Ellis '20
Olentangy Liberty High School Olentangy Liberty High School Patriots 12 13 13 11 BKD 61 Alison Hoeft '20
Cameron Friedauer '20
SchoolTeam R1 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Black River Public School Black River Public School Varsity 1 1 1 3 2 8 Eden Nykamp '21
Duncan Elmer '21
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Blue 5 8 2 1 1 17 Henry Gonzalez '21
Paige Gorman '21
Novi Novi Varsity 3 2 8 2 3 18 Conner Kirkman '23
Ed Stone '23
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity 2 6 3 4 5 20 Jake Elsen '21
Walter Paliga '22
Olentangy Liberty High School Olentangy Liberty High School Patriots 4 3 6 6 6 25 Emma Friedauer '23
William Bruner '23
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 6 12 4 5 4 31 Kai Oslund Dolan '20 [1, 3-6]
Colin Gordon '21 [1, 6]
Abigail Paul '20 [3-5]
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Varsity Blue 8 4 5 7 12 36 Luke Kleinrichert '20 [1, 3-4, 6]
Gabe Maday '22 [5]
Gabe Maday '22 [1, 3-4, 6]
Luke Kleinrichert '20 [5]
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Varsity Green 11 5 9 8 7 40 Andrew Godmer '22 [1, 6]
Bryce Wilmoth '20 [3-5]
Nic Zenner '21 [1, 6]
Troy High School Troy High School Colts 10 7 7 11 9 44 Joe Mowrey '21
Will Hilborn '22
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Varsity 7 11 10 9 10 47 Kaya Donat '20
Miles Laker '23
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRMS Blue 12 9 RAF 10 8 53 Madison Paulus '20
Bleu Borromeo '22
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold 9 10 12 12 11 54 Elizabeth Grin '23
Noah Sippel '22
Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Maroons 13 13 11 13 13 63 Lauren Siegers '21
Aiden Hollebeek '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A3A4A5A6A
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School Varsity13355
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MIBrother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRMS Blue24466
Cranbrook KingswoodCranbrook Kingswood Blue35577
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School Varsity46688
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold57799
Holland Christian High SchoolHolland Christian High School Maroons6881010
NoviNovi Varsity7991111
Olentangy Liberty High SchoolOlentangy Liberty High School Patriots810101212
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Varsity Blue911111313
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Varsity Black10121211
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Varsity Green11131322
Troy High SchoolTroy High School Colts121133
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity132244

Division B

Team1B3B4B5B6B
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School Varsity24466
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MIBrother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRMS Blue35577
Cranbrook KingswoodCranbrook Kingswood Blue46688
Detroit Country Day SchoolDetroit Country Day School Varsity57799
East Grand RapidsEast Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold6881010
Holland Christian High SchoolHolland Christian High School Maroons7991111
NoviNovi Varsity810101212
Olentangy Liberty High SchoolOlentangy Liberty High School Patriots911111313
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Varsity Blue10121211
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Varsity Black11131322
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Varsity Green121133
Troy High SchoolTroy High School Colts132244
West Bloomfield High SchoolWest Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity13355
School / Team SkipperCrew
Black River Public School Black River Public School Christopher Heideman '20 Alden Gort '22
Varsity Eden Nykamp '21 Duncan Elmer '21
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Owen Bannasch '22 [1, 3-6] Madison Paulus '20 [1, 6]
John Riordan '22 [3-5]
BRMS Blue Madison Paulus '20 Bleu Borromeo '22
Cranbrook Kingswood Cranbrook Kingswood Charlie Gonzalez '23 [1, 3-6] Henry Gonzalez '21 [1, 6]
Madison Fan '20 [3-5]
Blue Henry Gonzalez '21 Paige Gorman '21
Detroit Country Day School Detroit Country Day School Liam Hounsell '23 Dwight Ellis '20
Varsity Kaya Donat '20 Miles Laker '23
East Grand Rapids East Grand Rapids Caroline Grin '21 [1, 3-6] Elizabeth Grin '23 [1, 6]
Henry Sippel '22 [3-5]
EGR Varsity Gold Elizabeth Grin '23 Noah Sippel '22
Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Greta Traver '23 Kylie Smits '20
Maroons Lauren Siegers '21 Aiden Hollebeek '21
Novi Novi Michael Kirkman '21 Tristan Whelan '21
Varsity Conner Kirkman '23 Ed Stone '23
Olentangy Liberty High School Olentangy Liberty High School Alison Hoeft '20 Cameron Friedauer '20
Patriots Emma Friedauer '23 William Bruner '23
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City Joe Thuente '20 Ryan Schmidt '21
TCSF Varsity Blue Luke Kleinrichert '20 [1, 3-4, 6]
Gabe Maday '22 [5]
Gabe Maday '22 [1, 3-4, 6]
Luke Kleinrichert '20 [5]
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Noah Robitshek '21 Griffin Wright '21
TCC Varsity Black Kai Oslund Dolan '20 [1, 3-6] Colin Gordon '21 [1, 6]
Abigail Paul '20 [3-5]
Traverse City West Traverse City West Liam Clone '20 Ella Beck '21
TCW Varsity Green Andrew Godmer '22 [1, 6]
Bryce Wilmoth '20 [3-5]
Nic Zenner '21 [1, 6]
Troy High School Troy High School Emily Pytell '21 Alexa Warburton '22
Colts Joe Mowrey '21 Will Hilborn '22
West Bloomfield High School West Bloomfield High School Matthew Elliott '20 Frank Bachulis '22
Lakers Varsity Jake Elsen '21 Walter Paliga '22

Conditions — 10/27/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 74%  ·  Pressure 1007.1 hPa

Temperature

56°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 51°F
Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
15.3 kn
avg  ·  max 19.5 kn
Gusts to 32.9 kn
From W (259°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover64% Sunshine6.0 hrs Humidity74% Pressure1007.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 19 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Detroit Country Day/West Bloomfield: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.01 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Detroit Country Day/West Bloomfield by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Detroit Country Day/West Bloomfield, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →