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MISSA Cressy Qualifier (Standard)

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Jack Baldwin '22 1 4 4 1 3 1 1 2 1 4 2 1 3 5 33
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Noah Robitshek '21 7 5 3 5 1 4 6 3 4 3 1 2 1 2 47
Black River Public School Black River Public School Christopher Heideman '20 6 1 2 3 6 2 3 1 3 7 3 4 6 3 50
Jones College Prep Jones College Prep Emmett Nevel '21 2 2 1 4 8 5 2 6 5 1 5 3 4 4 52
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Jackson Walker '23 5 10 5 6 4 8 5 4 6 5 8 6 2 6 80
Fenwick High School Fenwick High School John Hultquist '20 3 8 6 2 2 10 4 5 7 12 6 8 7 1 81
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Benny Wild '22 9 6 7 7 5 3 7 7 2 10 4 7 9 10 93
Washburn High School Washburn High School Sean Mcaneney '21 4 12 8 DSQ 7 7 8 8 8 2 7 5 8 9 107
Olentangy Liberty High School Olentangy Liberty High School Cameron Friedauer '20 13 3 12 8 9 6 9 11 11 9 10 9 5 7 122
Washburn High School Washburn High School Alexandre Cholat '22 10 9 9 10 10 9 11 9 9 6 11 10 10 12 135
St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Will Thornton '20 8 11 10 9 13 12 12 10 13 11 9 11 11 8 148
Bloomington Jefferson Bloomington Jefferson Madeline Netzer '22 12 7 11 12 11 11 10 13 10 8 12 12 12 11 152
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Robert Jones '23 11 13 13 11 12 13 13 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 175

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  13 boats · 14 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Jack Baldwin '22Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL14/143.223.67+0.4599th → 99th0.716%2.4 / 3.4
2Noah Robitshek '21Traverse City Central14/141.872.96+1.0981st → 98th4.67%3.4 / 5.7
3Christopher Heideman '20Black River Public School14/142.102.83+0.7384th → 96th2.216%3.6 / 5.3
4Emmett Nevel '21Jones College Prep14/141.732.74+1.0079th → 95th4.06%3.7 / 5.9
5Jackson Walker '23Arrowhead High School14/141.171.82+0.6564th → 80th1.925%5.7 / 7.0
6John Hultquist '20Fenwick High School14/141.171.51+0.3364th → 73rd0.526%5.8 / 7.0
7Benny Wild '22University of Chicago Laboratory Schools14/141.201.36+0.1665th → 68th0.145%6.6 / 6.9
8Sean Mcaneney '21Washburn High School Millers 214/141.211.11−0.0965th → 61st0.067%7.6 / 6.9
9Cameron Friedauer '20Olentangy Liberty High School14/140.700.32−0.3945th → 31st0.768%8.7 / 7.8
10Alexandre Cholat '22Washburn High School Millers 114/140.630.25−0.3843rd → 29th0.884%9.6 / 8.0
11Will Thornton '20St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH14/140.25-0.35−0.6029th → 14th1.889%10.6 / 8.6
12Madeline Netzer '22Bloomington Jefferson14/140.30-0.55−0.8531st → 10th3.793%10.9 / 8.5
13Robert Jones '23Wayzata High School14/14-0.57-1.93−1.3610th → 1st5.598%12.5 / 10.0

Conditions — 09/21/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1021.8 hPa

Temperature

75°F
↑ 80°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 75°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.2 kn
avg  ·  max 7.3 kn
Gusts to 15.9 kn
From SSE (162°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1021.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Benilde St Margarets/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Benilde St Margarets/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Benilde St Margarets/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Benilde St Margarets/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →