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MN State Singlehanded Tournament

# SchoolSailor TOT
1 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Jacob Zils '23 16
2 Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Owen Harrod '22 20
3 Washburn High School Washburn High School Sean Mcaneney '21 20
4 Orono High School Orono High School Rachel Bartel '20 23
5 Orono High School Orono High School Seamus Hendrickson '21 24
6 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Max Sigel '22 37
7 Washburn High School Washburn High School Alexandre Cholat '22 38
8 Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Hank Seum '23 40
9 Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Cole Barre '21 48
10 Bloomington Jefferson Bloomington Jefferson Madeline Netzer '22 49
11 Southwest High School Southwest High School Calvin Lamosse '21 57
12 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Tryg Van Wyk '22 62
13 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Jack Callinan '23 69
14 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Marley Barrett '23 72
15 Southwest High School Southwest High School Gints Pelecis '21 75
16 Providence Academy Providence Academy Connor Shore '22 79
17 Edina High School Edina High School Virginia Higgins '22 82
18 Orono High School Orono High School Mei Vickery '21 87
19 Orono High School Orono High School Jack (Henry) Strommen '21 88
20 Southwest High School Southwest High School Sam Fider '22 92
21 Orono High School Orono High School Louise Rosenbaum '20 92
22 Orono High School Orono High School Hunter Wheaton '23 95
SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Jacob Zils '23 5 6 2 1 2 16
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Owen Harrod '22 3 5 9 2 1 20
Washburn High School Washburn High School Sean Mcaneney '21 4 1 1 5 9 20
Orono High School Orono High School Rachel Bartel '20 1 4 6 9 3 23
Orono High School Orono High School Seamus Hendrickson '21 2 2 4 10 6 24
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Max Sigel '22 6 8 3 13 7 37
Washburn High School Washburn High School Alexandre Cholat '22 12 3 8 7 8 38
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Hank Seum '23 8 17 7 3 5 40
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Cole Barre '21 11 16 11 6 4 48
Bloomington Jefferson Bloomington Jefferson Madeline Netzer '22 10 7 5 12 15 49
Southwest High School Southwest High School Calvin Lamosse '21 13 10 14 4 16 57
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Tryg Van Wyk '22 7 11 13 21 10 62
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Jack Callinan '23 15 9 16 11 18 69
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Marley Barrett '23 18 13 12 18 11 72
Southwest High School Southwest High School Gints Pelecis '21 9 12 20 17 17 75
Providence Academy Providence Academy Connor Shore '22 14 20 17 14 14 79
Edina High School Edina High School Virginia Higgins '22 17 21 15 8 21 82
Orono High School Orono High School Mei Vickery '21 16 14 21 16 20 87
Orono High School Orono High School Jack (Henry) Strommen '21 20 15 19 15 19 88
Southwest High School Southwest High School Sam Fider '22 21 22 18 19 12 92
Orono High School Orono High School Louise Rosenbaum '20 22 18 10 20 22 92
Orono High School Orono High School Hunter Wheaton '23 19 19 22 22 13 95

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  22 boats · 5 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Jacob Zils '23Minnetonka High School Skippers 15/52.113.60+1.4984th → 99th2.98%3.2 / 7.7
2Owen Harrod '22Mahtomedi Zephyrs 25/51.703.14+1.4378th → 99th2.84%4.0 / 8.7
2Sean Mcaneney '21Washburn High School Millers 25/50.953.12+2.1757th → 99th5.82%4.0 / 11.1
4Rachel Bartel '20Orono High School Spartans 45/51.972.89+0.9383rd → 97th1.318%4.6 / 8.0
5Seamus Hendrickson '21Orono High School Spartans 55/52.222.74+0.5287th → 95th0.424%4.8 / 7.4
6Max Sigel '22Minnetonka High School Skippers 55/51.481.96+0.4872nd → 83rd0.431%7.4 / 9.5
7Alexandre Cholat '22Washburn High School Millers 15/50.631.99+1.3643rd → 83rd2.812%7.6 / 12.2
8Hank Seum '23Mounds Park Academy5/51.481.56+0.0872nd → 74th0.038%8.0 / 9.5
9Cole Barre '21Mahtomedi Zephyrs 15/51.241.36+0.1165th → 68th0.047%9.6 / 10.1
10Madeline Netzer '22Bloomington Jefferson5/50.291.44+1.1530th → 71st2.119%9.8 / 13.2
11Calvin Lamosse '21Southwest High School Lakers 35/51.450.95−0.5071st → 56th0.671%11.4 / 9.5
12Tryg Van Wyk '22Minnetonka High School Skippers 25/50.510.36−0.1539th → 33rd0.048%12.4 / 12.5
13Jack Callinan '23Minnetonka High School Skippers 45/50.870.56−0.3152nd → 41st0.273%13.8 / 11.5
14Marley Barrett '23Minnetonka High School Skippers 35/50.900.36−0.5454th → 33rd0.780%14.4 / 11.3
15Gints Pelecis '21Southwest High School Lakers 15/50.310.22−0.0931st → 28th0.069%15.0 / 13.0
16Connor Shore '22Providence Academy5/50.510.13−0.3838th → 25th0.380%15.8 / 12.5
17Virginia Higgins '22Edina High School5/5-0.01-0.31−0.3121st → 15th0.274%16.4 / 13.9
18Mei Vickery '21Orono High School Spartans 25/50.40-0.35−0.7534th → 14th1.290%17.4 / 12.7
19Jack (Henry) Strommen '21Orono High School Spartans 65/50.59u-0.26−0.8542nd → 15th1.892%17.6 / 12.2
20Louise Rosenbaum '20Orono High School Spartans 15/5-0.15-1.31−1.1618th → 2nd2.287%18.4 / 14.4
20Sam Fider '22Southwest High School Lakers 25/5-0.32-0.86−0.5415th → 6th0.583%18.4 / 15.0
22Hunter Wheaton '23Orono High School Spartans 35/5-1.10-1.19−0.103rd → 3rd0.069%19.0 / 17.0

Conditions — 09/07/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 59%  ·  Pressure 1006.6 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 72°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.5 kn
avg  ·  max 14.2 kn
Gusts to 31.3 kn
From NW (322°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover76% Sunshine7.9 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1006.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Benilde St Margarets/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Benilde St Margarets/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata in this breeze: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.21)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.21 means a rating gap counts about 18% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Benilde St Margarets/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Benilde St Margarets/Orono/Providence Academy/Wayzata, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →