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NJISA Raritan Tuesday Series 10-08-19

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 2 9 9
2 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 15 15
3 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 17 17
4 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 20 20
5 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 23 23
6 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 6 23 23
7 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 29 29
8 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 29 29
9 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 35 35
10 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 39 39
11 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 41 41
12 Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 1 47 47
13 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 4 48 48
14 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 51 51
15 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 1 54 54
16 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 2 65 65
17 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 3 68 68
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 2 2 1 2 4 9 Caroline Maher '21
Sabatino Natalie '21
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 8 5 1 1 15 Sean Groskoph '20
Chris Disibio '21
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 4 4 4 5 17 Hannah Mercurio '20
Lilly Shanker '22
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 5 3 3 9 20 Jack Quinn '20
Jack Greengrass '22
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 6 2 12 3 23 Sophie Lusty '20
Michael Ahern '21
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 6 7 8 6 2 23 Thomas Marino '21 [1-4]
Sbu Sutton '23 [1-2]
Keira Press '23 [3-4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 1 12 8 8 29 Luke Duplessis '20 [1-4]
Jared Simonetti '21 [1-2]
Liam Mccombs '23 [3-4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 3 13 7 6 29 Ryan Mcwalters '21 [1-4]
Allison Baun '22 [1-2]
Jake Simonetti '21 [3-4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 13 6 9 7 35 Carson Lubrano '20 [1-4]
Jonathan Field '22 [1-2]
Vincent Hong '23 [3-4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 11 9 5 14 39 Sofie Jepsen '22
Henry Gallagher '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 10 7 11 13 41 Michael Ahern '21
Sarah Kane '22
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 1 15 10 10 12 47 Anna Schwartz '20
Celia Peri '20
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 4 12 11 14 11 48 Robert Valdez '22
No Show
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 9 14 13 15 51 Ciara Doherty '21
Sheehan Maitra '23
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 1 14 15 15 10 54 Hector Rodriguez '20
No Show
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 2 17 16 16 16 65 Patrick Ponce '20
No Show
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 3 16 17 17 DNF 68 Alex Kodak '22
Adam Capellan '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 11111
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 44444
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 55555
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 66666
Oak Knoll SchoolOak Knoll School Royals 114141414
Oak Knoll SchoolOak Knoll School Royals 215151515
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers 49999
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 211111111
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 312121212
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 413131313
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 516161616
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 Carson Lubrano '20 [1-4] Jonathan Field '22 [1-2]
Vincent Hong '23 [3-4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 Ryan Mcwalters '21 [1-4] Allison Baun '22 [1-2]
Jake Simonetti '21 [3-4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 Ciara Doherty '21 Sheehan Maitra '23
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 Sofie Jepsen '22 Henry Gallagher '20
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 Luke Duplessis '20 [1-4] Jared Simonetti '21 [1-2]
Liam Mccombs '23 [3-4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 6 Thomas Marino '21 [1-4] Sbu Sutton '23 [1-2]
Keira Press '23 [3-4]
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 1 Anna Schwartz '20 Celia Peri '20
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 2 Caroline Maher '21 Sabatino Natalie '21
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 1 Hector Rodriguez '20 No Show
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 2 Patrick Ponce '20 No Show
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 3 Alex Kodak '22 Adam Capellan '20
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 4 Robert Valdez '22 No Show
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 Hannah Mercurio '20 Lilly Shanker '22
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 Michael Ahern '21 Sarah Kane '22
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 Sophie Lusty '20 Michael Ahern '21
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 Sean Groskoph '20 Chris Disibio '21
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 Jack Quinn '20 Jack Greengrass '22

Conditions — 10/08/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 82%  ·  Pressure 1023.9 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.9 kn
avg  ·  max 12.2 kn
Gusts to 24.9 kn
From NNE (30°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1023.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Chatham: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.17
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.14 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Chatham by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Chatham, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →