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NJISA Raritan Tuesday Series 10-15-19

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 4 4
2 Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 2 11 11
3 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 16 16
4 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 19 19
5 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 20 20
6 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 6 24 24
7 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 25 25
8 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 38 38
9 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 40 40
10 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 4 41 41
11 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 47 47
12 Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 1 48 48
13 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 52 52
14 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 2 54 54
15 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 3 56 56
16 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 58 58
17 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 1 59 59
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 1 1 1 1 4 Sean Groskoph '20 [1-4]
Sophie Lusty '20 [1-3]
Sarah Kane '22 [4]
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 2 4 2 3 2 11 Caroline Maher '21
Anna Schwartz '20
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 2 3 7 4 16 Thomas Marino '21 [1-4]
Sheehan Maitra '23 [1-2]
Vincent Hong '23 [3-4]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 3 5 4 7 19 Hannah Mercurio '20
Ben Sampson '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 5 4 8 3 20 Jack Quinn '20
Luke Browne '20
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 6 6 7 6 5 24 Luke Duplessis '20
Cole West '23
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 9 8 2 6 25 Ryan Mcwalters '21
Keira Press '23
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 8 13 9 8 38 Jamie Lynch '23
Henry Gallagher '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 16 9 5 10 40 Chris Disibio '21
Jack Greengrass '22
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 4 13 6 10 12 41 Alex Kodak '22
No Show
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 7 10 17 13 47 Lilly Shanker '22 [1-4]
Sarah Kane '22 [1-2]
Peter Tully '21 [3-4]
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 1 10 12 15 11 48 Celia Peri '20
Maddie Donohue '21
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 14 15 14 9 52 Milos Buchberger '21
Jared Simonetti '21
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 2 11 16 12 15 54 Hector Rodriguez '20
Samantha Aguillon '20
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 3 12 17 11 16 56 Maria Perez '20
No Show
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 17 14 13 14 58 Jonathan Field '22
Jake Simonetti '21
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 1 15 11 16 17 59 Robert Valdez '22
Ben Salerno '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 11111
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 22222
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 33333
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 44444
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 55555
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 66666
Oak Knoll SchoolOak Knoll School Royals 114141414
Oak Knoll SchoolOak Knoll School Royals 215151515
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 110101010
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 212121212
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 313131313
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 416161616
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 517171717
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 Thomas Marino '21 [1-4] Sheehan Maitra '23 [1-2]
Vincent Hong '23 [3-4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 Jamie Lynch '23 Henry Gallagher '20
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 Ryan Mcwalters '21 Keira Press '23
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 Jonathan Field '22 Jake Simonetti '21
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 Milos Buchberger '21 Jared Simonetti '21
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 6 Luke Duplessis '20 Cole West '23
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 1 Celia Peri '20 Maddie Donohue '21
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 2 Caroline Maher '21 Anna Schwartz '20
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 1 Robert Valdez '22 Ben Salerno '21
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 2 Hector Rodriguez '20 Samantha Aguillon '20
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 3 Maria Perez '20 No Show
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 4 Alex Kodak '22 No Show
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 Hannah Mercurio '20 Ben Sampson '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 Chris Disibio '21 Jack Greengrass '22
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 Sean Groskoph '20 [1-4] Sophie Lusty '20 [1-3]
Sarah Kane '22 [4]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 Jack Quinn '20 Luke Browne '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 Lilly Shanker '22 [1-4] Sarah Kane '22 [1-2]
Peter Tully '21 [3-4]

Conditions — 10/15/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 65%  ·  Pressure 1019.6 hPa

Temperature

55°F
↑ 56°F   ↓ 51°F
Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.4 kn
avg  ·  max 11.9 kn
Gusts to 25.3 kn
From NNW (344°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1019.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Chatham: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.13)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.22
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.55 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Chatham by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Chatham, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →