NJISA Raritan Tuesday Series 9-24-19

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 5 5
2 Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 9 9
3 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 13 13
4 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 17 17
5 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 24 24
6 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 24 24
7 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 26 26
8 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 32 32
9 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 40 40
10 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 6 40 40
11 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 41 41
12 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 43 43
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 2 1 1 1 5 Sean Groskoph '20
Sophie Lusty '20
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 1 3 3 2 9 Caroline Maher '21 [1-2]
Anna Schwartz '20 [3-4]
Anna Schwartz '20 [1-2]
Isabelle Weldon '19 [3-4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 4 2 4 3 13 Thomas Marino '21
Jonathan Field '22
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 3 4 5 5 17 Luke Duplessis '20 [1-4]
Ryan Mcwalters '21 [1-2]
Cole West '23 [3-4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 5 6 7 6 24 Jamie Lynch '23 [1-4]
Henry Gallagher '20 [1-2]
Ryan Mcwalters '21 [3-4]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 6 5 6 7 24 Chris Disibio '21
Ben Sampson '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 12 8 2 4 26 Hannah Mercurio '20
Jack Quinn '20
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 9 7 8 8 32 Sofie Jepsen '22 [1-4]
Allison Baun '22 [1-2]
Liam Mccombs '23 [3-4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 7 9 11 DNS 40 Ciara Doherty '21 [1-4]
Katie Caviness '21 [1-2]
Sbu Sutton '23 [3-4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 6 8 DNF 9 10 40 Veloce Scott '21 [1-4]
Keira Press '23 [1-2]
Vincent Hong '23 [3-4]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 11 11 10 9 41 Michael Ahern '21
Sarah Kane '22
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 10 10 12 11 43 Lilly Shanker '22
Peter Tully '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (30 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 11111
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 22222
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 33333
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 44444
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 55555
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 66666
Oak Knoll SchoolOak Knoll School Royals15151515
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 113131313
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 210101010
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 312121212
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 416161616
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 517171717
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 Ciara Doherty '21 [1-4] Katie Caviness '21 [1-2]
Sbu Sutton '23 [3-4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 Sofie Jepsen '22 [1-4] Allison Baun '22 [1-2]
Liam Mccombs '23 [3-4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 Luke Duplessis '20 [1-4] Ryan Mcwalters '21 [1-2]
Cole West '23 [3-4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 Thomas Marino '21 Jonathan Field '22
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 Jamie Lynch '23 [1-4] Henry Gallagher '20 [1-2]
Ryan Mcwalters '21 [3-4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 6 Veloce Scott '21 [1-4] Keira Press '23 [1-2]
Vincent Hong '23 [3-4]
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals Caroline Maher '21 [1-2]
Anna Schwartz '20 [3-4]
Anna Schwartz '20 [1-2]
Isabelle Weldon '19 [3-4]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 Sean Groskoph '20 Sophie Lusty '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 Hannah Mercurio '20 Jack Quinn '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 Chris Disibio '21 Ben Sampson '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 Michael Ahern '21 Sarah Kane '22
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 Lilly Shanker '22 Peter Tully '21

Conditions — 09/24/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 51%  ·  Pressure 1009.1 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 77°F   ↓ 63°F
Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.7 kn
avg  ·  max 10.7 kn
Gusts to 25.9 kn
From WNW (298°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover36% Sunshine10.6 hrs Humidity51% Pressure1009.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Summit: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.22 ± 0.23)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →