NWISA Women's Qualifiers 2019

HostCapital/Olympia
Date09/21/2019
TypeIn-District
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Bears	Bears	35	10	45
2	Ballard High School	Beavers	27	34	61
3	Cougars	Cougars	9	68	77
4	Ingraham High School	Rams	37	40	77
5	Bainbridge High School	Spartans	32	46	78
6	Sehome High School	Mariners	70	32	102
7	Cardinals 1	Cardinals 1	44	62	106
8	Cardinals 3	Cardinals 3	76	39	115
9	Cardinals 2	Cardinals 2	72	73	145
10	Roosevelt High School	Rough Riders	96	66	162
11	Cougars	Cougars	79	84	163
12	Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats	72	92	164
13	Raiders	Raiders	101	92	193
14	Storm	Storm	96	103	199

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Cougars	Cougars	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	9
Ballard High School	Beavers	2	7	3	3	4	2	4	2	27	Catie Vandervort '22 Meimei Peterson '22
Bainbridge High School	Spartans	3	6	4	2	3	4	2	8	32	Maxwell Richards '24 Lola White '22
Bears	Bears	6	3	2	5	6	5	3	5	35
Ingraham High School	Rams	7	5	7	6	1	3	5	3	37	Kira Blumhagen '21 Maia Dock '24
Cardinals 1	Cardinals 1	5	4	5	4	7	6	7	6	44
Sehome High School	Mariners	12	12	9	7	8	7	8	7	70	Leah Anders '22 Bailey Logan '22
Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats	8	9	8	10	12	10	6	9	72	Willa Weinsheimer '20 [1-8] Catherine Wicker '20 [1-2] No Show [3-4] Kaitlin Mann '23 [5-6] Emelia Boilek '22 [7-8]
Cardinals 2	Cardinals 2	9	8	11	9	5	11	9	10	72
Cardinals 3	Cardinals 3	14	10	10	8	11	9	10	4	76
Cougars	Cougars	10	13	6	11	9	8	11	11	79
Roosevelt High School	Rough Riders	4	2	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	96	Abbie Chipps '21 [1-2] No Show [3-8] Kaia Armas '21 [1-2] No Show [3-8]
Storm	Storm	13	11	12	12	10	12	13	13	96
Raiders	Raiders	11	14	13	13	13	13	12	12	101

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Bears	Bears	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	1	10
Sehome High School	Mariners	7	2	5	6	3	1	5	3	32	Casey Malone '22 Natalie Aarstol '22
Ballard High School	Beavers	3	3	3	3	2	DSQ	3	2	34	Caroline Lochner '22 Isabelle Mcnabb '22
Cardinals 3	Cardinals 3	2	6	4	2	9	7	1	8	39
Ingraham High School	Rams	4	5	2	8	8	3	6	4	40	Jessica Reeves '20 [1-3] Ellie Blakemore '23 [4-8] Ella Barnard '20 [1-3]
Bainbridge High School	Spartans	6	7	6	5	7	5	4	6	46	Gianna Dewey '23 Lauren Heinzelman '22
Cardinals 1	Cardinals 1	5	4	9	7	11	8	9	9	62
Roosevelt High School	Rough Riders	11	12	12	4	4	10	8	5	66	Leo Kuhtz '23 [1-8] Nati Garcia-Bompadre '23 [1-3] Kaia Armas '21 [4-8]
Cougars	Cougars	10	9	8	9	5	4	11	12	68
Cardinals 2	Cardinals 2	8	10	11	12	6	6	10	10	73
Cougars	Cougars	9	8	7	13	10	11	13	13	84
Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats	12	11	10	10	13	13	12	11	92	Kaitlin Mann '23 [1-3] Catherine Wicker '20 [4-8] Emelia Boilek '22 [1-3, 5-8] Kaitlin Mann '23 [4]
Raiders	Raiders	13	13	14	14	12	12	7	7	92
Storm	Storm	14	14	13	11	14	9	14	14	103

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.140+0.14

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
Bainbridge High School Spartans	82	82	83	83	126	126	86	86
Ballard High School Beavers	7	7	84	84	8	8	87	87
Raiders Raiders	83	83	126	126	86	86	9	9
Cougars Cougars	84	84	8	8	87	87	54	54
Cougars Cougars	126	126	86	86	9	9	55	55
Ingraham High School Rams	8	8	87	87	54	54	56	56
Cardinals 1 Cardinals 1	56	56	15	15	7	7	84	84
Cardinals 2 Cardinals 2	85	85	82	82	83	83	126	126
Cardinals 3 Cardinals 3	15	15	7	7	84	84	8	8
Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	86	86	9	9	55	55	85	85
Bears Bears	87	87	54	54	56	56	15	15
Roosevelt High School Rough Riders	9	9	55	55	85	85	82	82
Sehome High School Mariners	54	54	56	56	15	15	7	7
Storm Storm	55	55	85	85	82	82	83	83

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
Bainbridge High School Spartans	7	7	84	84	8	8	87	87
Ballard High School Beavers	83	83	126	126	86	86	9	9
Raiders Raiders	84	84	8	8	87	87	54	54
Cougars Cougars	126	126	86	86	9	9	55	55
Cougars Cougars	8	8	87	87	54	54	56	56
Ingraham High School Rams	86	86	9	9	55	55	85	85
Cardinals 1 Cardinals 1	85	85	82	82	83	83	126	126
Cardinals 2 Cardinals 2	15	15	7	7	84	84	8	8
Cardinals 3 Cardinals 3	82	82	83	83	126	126	86	86
Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	87	87	54	54	56	56	15	15
Bears Bears	9	9	55	55	85	85	82	82
Roosevelt High School Rough Riders	54	54	56	56	15	15	7	7
Sehome High School Mariners	55	55	85	85	82	82	83	83
Storm Storm	56	56	15	15	7	7	84	84

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Bainbridge High School	Maxwell Richards '24	Lola White '22
Spartans	Gianna Dewey '23	Lauren Heinzelman '22
Ballard High School	Catie Vandervort '22	Meimei Peterson '22
Beavers	Caroline Lochner '22	Isabelle Mcnabb '22
Ingraham High School	Kira Blumhagen '21	Maia Dock '24
Rams	Jessica Reeves '20 [1-3] Ellie Blakemore '23 [4-8]	Ella Barnard '20 [1-3]
Oak Harbor High School	Willa Weinsheimer '20 [1-8]	Catherine Wicker '20 [1-2] No Show [3-4] Kaitlin Mann '23 [5-6] Emelia Boilek '22 [7-8]
Wildcats	Kaitlin Mann '23 [1-3] Catherine Wicker '20 [4-8]	Emelia Boilek '22 [1-3, 5-8] Kaitlin Mann '23 [4]
Roosevelt High School	Abbie Chipps '21 [1-2] No Show [3-8]	Kaia Armas '21 [1-2] No Show [3-8]
Rough Riders	Leo Kuhtz '23 [1-8]	Nati Garcia-Bompadre '23 [1-3] Kaia Armas '21 [4-8]
Sehome High School	Leah Anders '22	Bailey Logan '22
Mariners	Casey Malone '22	Natalie Aarstol '22

Conditions — 09/21/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 75% · Pressure 1019.2 hPa

Temperature

63°F

↑ 66°F ↓ 57°F

Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.0 kn

avg · max 4.9 kn

Gusts to 13.4 kn

From SW (222°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover95% Sunshine6.6 hrs Humidity75% Pressure1019.2 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 7 kn · S 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Capital/Olympia: a typical day (+0.00)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.12

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.40 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Capital/Olympia by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Capital/Olympia: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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