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PCISA Keelboat Challenge

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Newport Harbor High School Newport Harbor High School Sailors 21 21
2 Mater Dei High School Mater Dei High School Monarchs 22 22
3 Corona del Mar High School Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 24 24
4 Coronado Islanders Coronado Islanders Nado 27 27
5 The Bishop's School The Bishop's School Knights 45 45
6 Palos Verdes Peninsula High School Palos Verdes Peninsula High School Panthers 46 46
7 Acalanes High School Acalanes High School Dons 49 49
8 The Bay School of San Francisco The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 54 54
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT
Newport Harbor High School Newport Harbor High School Sailors 4 4 3 3 1 1 2 3 21
Mater Dei High School Mater Dei High School Monarchs 3 1 1 2 3 4 6 2 22
Corona del Mar High School Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 1 7 5 1 5 3 1 1 24
Coronado Islanders Coronado Islanders Nado 5 3 2 5 2 2 4 4 27
The Bishop's School The Bishop's School Knights 2 8 4 4 6 7 8 6 45
Palos Verdes Peninsula High School Palos Verdes Peninsula High School Panthers 6 5 8 7 4 8 3 5 46
Acalanes High School Acalanes High School Dons 8 2 6 8 8 5 5 7 49
The Bay School of San Francisco The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 8 54

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 78 ISSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  8 boats · 8 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Erik Hou '20Newport Harbor High School8/82.232.74+0.5199th → 99th0.924%2.6 / 3.5
2Jeffrey Petersen '20Mater Dei High School8/82.342.52+0.1899th → 99th0.134%2.8 / 3.4
3Nathan Sih '21Corona del Mar High School8/82.202.25+0.0699th → 99th0.035%3.0 / 3.6
4Conner McCrillis '20Coronado Islanders8/81.002.38+1.3874th → 99th6.07%3.4 / 5.2
5Rocco Cappetta '20The Bishop's School8/81.390.92−0.4792nd → 72nd0.880%5.6 / 4.7
7Chase Englehart '22Acalanes High School8/80.610.51−0.1051st → 37th0.063%6.1 / 5.7
8Luke Froeb '21The Bay School of San Francisco8/80.990.63−0.3673rd → 51st0.591%6.8 / 5.3

Conditions — 10/19/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 68%  ·  Pressure 1012.5 hPa

Temperature

68°F
↑ 73°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.7 kn
avg  ·  max 7.4 kn
Gusts to 16.1 kn
From WSW (251°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover13% Sunshine10.4 hrs Humidity68% Pressure1012.5 hPa

What this breeze does at San Diego Yacht Club — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at San Diego Yacht Club in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.15)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.15 means a rating gap counts about 13% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at San Diego Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at San Diego Yacht Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →