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Peninsula Yacht Club Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Varsity 1 8 14 22
2 Lake Norman High School Lake Norman High School Wildcats 17 12 29
3 Hough High School Hough High School Hough 21 13 34
4 AC Reynolds AC Reynolds Rockets 19 22 41
5 Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Varsity 2 31 32 63
6 Southlake Christian Academy Southlake Christian Academy Southlake 30 33 63
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Varsity 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 8 Alli Volk '21
Sarina Schmoyer '23
Lake Norman High School Lake Norman High School Wildcats 4 1 2 2 5 3 17 Evan Chenard '20 [1-4, 6]
Joe Nash '20 [5]
Joe Nash '20 [1-2, 6]
Chelsea Puncochar '22 [3-5]
AC Reynolds AC Reynolds Rockets 2 3 3 4 2 5 19 Cole Wise '20
Olivia Hennon '21
Hough High School Hough High School Hough 3 6 5 3 3 1 21 Sully O'Donnell '21
Caroline Coke '21
Southlake Christian Academy Southlake Christian Academy Southlake 6 5 6 5 4 4 30 Jack Crofoot '22
Kanna Gosh '22
Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Varsity 2 5 4 4 6 6 6 31 Alessia Decamp '22
Preston Miller '23
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Lake Norman High School Lake Norman High School Wildcats 1 1 1 2 3 4 12 Tyler Bland '21 [1-5]
Chris Hartman '20 [6]
Chris Hartman '20 [1-2, 5]
Ryan Pannenbacker '22 [3-4, 6]
Hough High School Hough High School Hough 2 2 2 4 2 1 13 Evan West '22
Georgia Hunt '23
Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Varsity 1 4 3 3 1 1 2 14 Caden Wilson '20
Maddie Nusbaum '21
AC Reynolds AC Reynolds Rockets 3 5 4 3 4 3 22 Holladay Crook '22
Luca Van Der Schoot '22
Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Varsity 2 5 6 6 5 5 5 32 Cam Fowler '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Zach Scallen '24 [3-4]
Julia Boutet '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Southlake Christian Academy Southlake Christian Academy Southlake 6 4 5 6 6 6 33 Tucker Pugh '21
Patrick Parker '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
AC ReynoldsAC Reynolds Rockets112233
Hough High SchoolHough High School Hough221166
Lake Norman High SchoolLake Norman High School Wildcats334455
Pine Lake PrepPine Lake Prep Varsity 1443322
Pine Lake PrepPine Lake Prep Varsity 2556611
Southlake Christian AcademySouthlake Christian Academy Southlake665544

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
AC ReynoldsAC Reynolds Rockets778899
Hough High SchoolHough High School Hough88771212
Lake Norman High SchoolLake Norman High School Wildcats9910101111
Pine Lake PrepPine Lake Prep Varsity 110109988
Pine Lake PrepPine Lake Prep Varsity 21111121277
Southlake Christian AcademySouthlake Christian Academy Southlake121211111010
School / Team SkipperCrew
AC Reynolds AC Reynolds Cole Wise '20 Olivia Hennon '21
Rockets Holladay Crook '22 Luca Van Der Schoot '22
Hough High School Hough High School Sully O'Donnell '21 Caroline Coke '21
Hough Evan West '22 Georgia Hunt '23
Lake Norman High School Lake Norman High School Evan Chenard '20 [1-4, 6]
Joe Nash '20 [5]		 Joe Nash '20 [1-2, 6]
Chelsea Puncochar '22 [3-5]
Wildcats Tyler Bland '21 [1-5]
Chris Hartman '20 [6]		 Chris Hartman '20 [1-2, 5]
Ryan Pannenbacker '22 [3-4, 6]
Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Alli Volk '21 Sarina Schmoyer '23
Varsity 1 Caden Wilson '20 Maddie Nusbaum '21
Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Alessia Decamp '22 Preston Miller '23
Varsity 2 Cam Fowler '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Zach Scallen '24 [3-4]		 Julia Boutet '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Southlake Christian Academy Southlake Christian Academy Jack Crofoot '22 Kanna Gosh '22
Southlake Tucker Pugh '21 Patrick Parker '21

Conditions — 09/21/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 51%  ·  Pressure 1024.7 hPa

Temperature

79°F
↑ 86°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 81°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.2 kn
avg  ·  max 4.8 kn
Gusts to 10.5 kn
From SSW (211°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover18% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity51% Pressure1024.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Hough HS: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.02 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hough HS by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Hough HS: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →