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SEISA West - Fall Champs

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 4 31 31
2 Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 2 43 43
3 Lutheran South Academy Lutheran South Academy Varsity 46 46
4 Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Viking Sailing Club 65 65
5 Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 3 103 103
6 Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 1 103 103
7 Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 5 119 119
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17 R18 TOT Sailors
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 4 3 1 2 2 1 2 3 1 1 1 2 4 1 1 2 2 1 1 31 Ava Anderson '23
Margaret Schuler '21
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 2 1 3 1 1 4 4 2 3 2 3 1 1 2 2 3 4 3 3 43 Piotr Smieja '22
Benjamin Dunphey '22
Lutheran South Academy Lutheran South Academy Varsity 2 DNF 3 4 3 1 1 2 3 2 3 2 3 3 1 1 2 2 46 Stephen Momeier '23 [1-18]
Noah Roberts '23 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 17-18]
Reina Li '23 [3-4, 7-8, 15-16]
Nisha Shah '23 [11-12]
Zaina Nateel '23 [13-14]
Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Viking Sailing Club 4 2 4 3 2 3 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 65 Parker Younger '22
Jonathon Gilreath '22
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 3 5 4 5 5 6 6 4 DNF 5 5 5 5 7 7 6 7 6 7 103 Ethan Skelton '23
Olivia Espiritu '21
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 1 6 5 6 DNS 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 103 Peyton Collins '21 [1-18]
Mya Snuggs '21 [1-4, 9-10, 15-16]
Truman Bright '23 [5-8, 11-14, 17-18]
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 5 DNS DNF 7 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 5 5 7 5 7 6 119 Truman Bright '23 [1-2]
Jonathon Gilreath '22 [3-18]
Noah Roberts '23 [1-2]
Sam Roberts '23 [3-18]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A15A16A17A18A
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights 1112233445566771122
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights 2223344556677112233
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights 3334455667711223344
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights 4445566771122334455
Clear Falls High SchoolClear Falls High School Knights 5556677112233445566
Lutheran South AcademyLutheran South Academy Varsity667711223344556677
Nolan Catholic High SchoolNolan Catholic High School Viking Sailing Club771122334455667711
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 1 Peyton Collins '21 [1-18] Mya Snuggs '21 [1-4, 9-10, 15-16]
Truman Bright '23 [5-8, 11-14, 17-18]
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 2 Piotr Smieja '22 Benjamin Dunphey '22
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 3 Ethan Skelton '23 Olivia Espiritu '21
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 4 Ava Anderson '23 Margaret Schuler '21
Clear Falls High School Clear Falls High School Knights 5 Truman Bright '23 [1-2]
Jonathon Gilreath '22 [3-18]		 Noah Roberts '23 [1-2]
Sam Roberts '23 [3-18]
Lutheran South Academy Lutheran South Academy Varsity Stephen Momeier '23 [1-18] Noah Roberts '23 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10, 17-18]
Reina Li '23 [3-4, 7-8, 15-16]
Nisha Shah '23 [11-12]
Zaina Nateel '23 [13-14]
Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Viking Sailing Club Parker Younger '22 Jonathon Gilreath '22

Conditions — 11/02/2019 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 56%  ·  Pressure 1027.5 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 63°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 54°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.7 kn
avg  ·  max 10.0 kn
Gusts to 18.9 kn
From NNE (13°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover60% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1027.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 7 kn · E 7 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Clear Falls: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.25
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.36 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Clear Falls by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 9 labelled days at Clear Falls, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →